My Draft History - seems realistic, right?

Fronzizzle · 05-13-2020, 08:49 AM

I've seen multiple posts regarding how weak the draft classes are lately, so I decided to do some digging in my draft history. I, too, have felt that they classes have generally been weak, especially once you pass the 3rd or 4th round.

However, in looking back, I think things are pretty realistic. I play as the Tigers, I finally rebuilt them into a yearly contender so I'm typically picking toward the end of each round. I'm currently in the middle of the 2032 season.

Because I'm bored, here are the details:

2020: I took Torkelson at 1-1 and he's been a HOF player; 5 MVP awards. My 3rd, 5th, 6th and 8th round picks also contributed to varying degrees.

2021: I took a C at 1-6. He had an outstanding rookie season, then dropped. I ended up trading him. He's still a starting, 1.5-WAR catcher. My 2nd and 4th picks were okay, too - the P I took 4th flamed out with me, but made an All-Star team after being signed as a free agent.

2022: I took a high school P at 1-14 and he flamed out in AA and is now retired. In general, this is my worst draft class; almost every player is retired. My best pick was a P in the 20th round that had great stats except for Movement, so he's been a 5th-starter/long reliever but is still kicking around.

2023: I took a high school P at 1-26. He's still kicking around AAA for another organization. Another bad draft, I got very little value out of my picks.

2024: I took a college P at 1-12. He was up and down his whole career before I needed roster space and dealt him to Baltimore. He's currently their 5th starter and sporting a 5.00 ERA. I took a closer in the 2nd round and dealt him for ML help at the deadline the next year. My 3rd, 4th and 5th round picks are all backups/up-and-down guys right now.

2025: Oof. I took a college P at 1-10, he advanced to AAA quickly...and then flamed out. My 2nd and 3rd round picks were the typical "4A" type players, and I got very little out of this draft.

2026: Finally, a good draft. I took a college P at 1-27 and he immediately became one of the top prospects in the game, reaching #1 within 3 years. He had a great rookie season and is now my #2 starter, having won the Cy Young in 2031. My 8th round pick (a HS RF) is doing well in AAA, and my 21st round pick is one of my better relief pitchers.

2027: Overall, another good draft. At 1-20, I took a high school RF that is doing well in AA right now, though he's moving slowly. My 2nd round pick was a HS SS, and he's a Top 10 prospect in baseball right now and tearing up AAA. My 3rd and 6th round picks are key bench pieces.

2028: Meh. I took a college P at 1-30, he's currently floudering as my 5th starter. The rest of the class has failed to leave a mark.

2029: Jackpot. At 1-21, I took a college closer that had 3 plus pitches and high stamina, so I made him a starter. In 2031, he was already in my rotation and put up 3.3 WAR in only 19 games and in 2032 he's on pace for a 7-WAR season. I had three 2nd round picks for losing free agents, all three of them are doing well in the mid-minors.

It's too soon to tell on the 2030 & 2031 drafts.

I also didn't include later picks that have filled in, taken bullpen roles or were traded for help on the big league club.

So all in all, it seems pretty realistic to me. Not every draft is successful and not every pick is a star but I've been able to acquire a lot of talent in various rounds.

SirMichaelJordan · 05-14-2020, 11:51 AM

Yup, to put things into perspective...

This is from a FAQ on MLB.com

Quote:

A future overall grade of 65 or better is for a player who could develop into a future impact Major Leaguer, perhaps an All-Star-caliber standout.

Considering how hit or miss the draft is, OOTP does it right.

05-13-2020, 08:49 AM	#1
Fronzizzle Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 177	My Draft History - seems realistic, right? I've seen multiple posts regarding how weak the draft classes are lately, so I decided to do some digging in my draft history. I, too, have felt that they classes have generally been weak, especially once you pass the 3rd or 4th round. However, in looking back, I think things are pretty realistic. I play as the Tigers, I finally rebuilt them into a yearly contender so I'm typically picking toward the end of each round. I'm currently in the middle of the 2032 season. Because I'm bored, here are the details: 2020: I took Torkelson at 1-1 and he's been a HOF player; 5 MVP awards. My 3rd, 5th, 6th and 8th round picks also contributed to varying degrees. 2021: I took a C at 1-6. He had an outstanding rookie season, then dropped. I ended up trading him. He's still a starting, 1.5-WAR catcher. My 2nd and 4th picks were okay, too - the P I took 4th flamed out with me, but made an All-Star team after being signed as a free agent. 2022: I took a high school P at 1-14 and he flamed out in AA and is now retired. In general, this is my worst draft class; almost every player is retired. My best pick was a P in the 20th round that had great stats except for Movement, so he's been a 5th-starter/long reliever but is still kicking around. 2023: I took a high school P at 1-26. He's still kicking around AAA for another organization. Another bad draft, I got very little value out of my picks. 2024: I took a college P at 1-12. He was up and down his whole career before I needed roster space and dealt him to Baltimore. He's currently their 5th starter and sporting a 5.00 ERA. I took a closer in the 2nd round and dealt him for ML help at the deadline the next year. My 3rd, 4th and 5th round picks are all backups/up-and-down guys right now. 2025: Oof. I took a college P at 1-10, he advanced to AAA quickly...and then flamed out. My 2nd and 3rd round picks were the typical "4A" type players, and I got very little out of this draft. 2026: Finally, a good draft. I took a college P at 1-27 and he immediately became one of the top prospects in the game, reaching #1 within 3 years. He had a great rookie season and is now my #2 starter, having won the Cy Young in 2031. My 8th round pick (a HS RF) is doing well in AAA, and my 21st round pick is one of my better relief pitchers. 2027: Overall, another good draft. At 1-20, I took a high school RF that is doing well in AA right now, though he's moving slowly. My 2nd round pick was a HS SS, and he's a Top 10 prospect in baseball right now and tearing up AAA. My 3rd and 6th round picks are key bench pieces. 2028: Meh. I took a college P at 1-30, he's currently floudering as my 5th starter. The rest of the class has failed to leave a mark. 2029: Jackpot. At 1-21, I took a college closer that had 3 plus pitches and high stamina, so I made him a starter. In 2031, he was already in my rotation and put up 3.3 WAR in only 19 games and in 2032 he's on pace for a 7-WAR season. I had three 2nd round picks for losing free agents, all three of them are doing well in the mid-minors. It's too soon to tell on the 2030 & 2031 drafts. I also didn't include later picks that have filled in, taken bullpen roles or were traded for help on the big league club. So all in all, it seems pretty realistic to me. Not every draft is successful and not every pick is a star but I've been able to acquire a lot of talent in various rounds.