Help Understanding Pitching

[Edster007]

Playing PT for the first time. I had a good enough team to make the playoffs in silver and get promoted to gold. I figured given my pitching I would get knocked around and I am. What I am having a problem understanding is pitching. In silver league play and now in gold based on card ratings my two worst starters are out preforming my two best starters to the tune of almost two runs a game. Same two pitchers were better in silver as well but they weren't as far apart as now. I haven't had time to deep dive into statistics but after just under 200 games played it's not an anomaly its a trend.

On the surface I know the pitchers are facing a better caliber of hitter but to me it stands to reason that if a pitcher in comparison to another has better stuff, movement, control and higher ratings on each individual pitches over the long haul he should be the better pitcher. All my starters are lefty's so that's not the issue.

Am I missing something?

[CurlyKarkovice]

Originally Posted by Edster007

All my starters are lefty's so that's not the issue.

That might be the issue if they are getting smoked by RH heavy lineups. Was this the case in your Silver season too when the Gold card guys are getting out played by less overall guys?

It's currently only 31 days of sim. I have a 70 overall guy w a 2.9 ERA with 79 and 81 guys with high 5s ERA.

Also just looking at ERA can be deceiving early on. Look at FIP and BABIP that might give you a better idea of who is *actually* pitching better and who might be getting luckier than others. I just did and 70 overall pitcher FIP is above 5 and BABIP is .235 about 65 points lower than an average season (.300 or 30% of batted balls that don't go over the fence, end up base hits). My higher overall pitchers were over .340

Not to mention defense matters. Groundball guys need good IF with high range and ability. Flyball guys give up dingers in small parks. Many factors.

[Edster007]

Originally Posted by CurlyKarkovice

That might be the issue if they are getting smoked by RH heavy lineups. Was this the case in your Silver season too when the Gold card guys are getting out played by less overall guys?

It's currently only 31 days of sim. I have a 70 overall guy w a 2.9 ERA with 79 and 81 guys with high 5s ERA.

Also just looking at ERA can be deceiving early on. Look at FIP and BABIP that might give you a better idea of who is *actually* pitching better and who might be getting luckier than others. I just did and 70 overall pitcher FIP is above 5 and BABIP is .235 about 65 points lower than an average season (.300 or 30% of batted balls that don't go over the fence, end up base hits). My higher overall pitchers were over .340

Not to mention defense matters. Groundball guys need good IF with high range and ability. Flyball guys give up dingers in small parks. Many factors.

Thanks, the reason I said lefty's weren't an issue is because they all are. If the lower graded pitchers were RH I would have thought that played into it. My team defense is good and my bullpen which was lights out in silver isn't cutting it in gold level. I will look deeper into the stats tonight.

I started silver with 2 RH pitchers in the rotation Buehler and Dennis Martinez for balance and the fact they were better (on the surface looking at ratings) than the Al Lieter and Jim Abbott I had in reserve. I moved one out and one to the bullpen and my team took off.

[Kushiel]

If you are running all southpaws, have you set your park factors to help them at home?

[Rain King]

The main thing you need to know about pitchers is that they are not as consistent as hitters...especially if they aren't your top Diamond/Perfect type guys.

[Warhawk]

Originally Posted by Rain King

The main thing you need to know about pitchers is that they are not as consistent as hitters...especially if they aren't your top Diamond/Perfect type guys.

I think you mean "even if they are" considering Syndergaard has a 6+ ERA for me right now.

[Rain King]

Originally Posted by Warhawk

I think you mean "even if they are" considering Syndergaard has a 6+ ERA for me right now.

Ha, true. The top guys have been more consistent for me...but that is probably because I haven't spent much time in the top level leagues.

[Warhawk]

Originally Posted by Rain King

Ha, true. The top guys have been more consistent for me...but that is probably because I haven't spent much time in the top level leagues.

Make that 7+ as of 5 minutes ago! His BABIP is on the high side but not THAT bad. Right now of my 5 starting pitchers, the 3 Indians are sub-4 (Bieber of all people is sub-3 and undefeated) and Sydnergaard and Bunning are both over 6.9. Granted, Bieber has a BABIP of .219. Kluber is the guy who's actually living more or less up to expectations at the moment. Which is nice since he sorta gave away game 7 of the Bronze Series on Sunday.

It's weird, Syndergaard had like one bad game for me last season, with 8 regular season starts and I think 6 in the playoffs. His last 4 outings for me this season? 5 runs in 3 innings, 5 runs in 6 innings, 8 runs in 2 1/3 innings, 6 runs in 4 1/3 innings.

[Edster007]

Originally Posted by Kushiel

If you are running all southpaws, have you set your park factors to help them at home?

Embarrassing as it is to say-I read the manual and searched threads to figure out ballpark factors and I didn't fully grasp it so before I really screwed things up I left things as is

[chazzycat]

Originally Posted by Edster007

In silver league play and now in gold based on card ratings my two worst starters are out preforming my two best starters to the tune of almost two runs a game.

What are the individual STU/MOV/CON ratings? These are much more important than the overall rating, and should be prioritized based on your ballpark. I.e. if you have a high AVG modifier maybe some more strikeouts (STU rating) would be beneficial to keep the ball out of play, whereas if you have a high HR modifier, then HR-suppression (MOV rating) is probably more important. Similarly, how strong is your infield defense vs. your outfield defense? If you are getting all GB pitchers then you need a strong infield defense, likewise for FB pitchers and outfield defense.

What I'm trying to say is that if pitcher A is overall rated higher than pitcher B, but pitcher B is a better fit for your park and team, then there's a good chance pitcher B will perform better for you.

(or it could also just be small sample size...)