Ballpark Factors

[Thalion]

With the discussion about ballpark factors, I'm trying to get my head around how they actually work.

Though I've been playing OOTP for several years now, I will say that I'm pretty much still a novice in terms of how things actually work so I've never really delved into such things as ballpark factors.

I think I understand the basics. You increase a factor (say HRs) then you increase the frequency of home runs. The same thing with all the other factors (AVG, 2B, 3B). I get that.

What I don't understand is what happens in the instance in which you increase one factor, and hold the other the same (or drop others).

For example, say you increase the factor for doubles and leave everything the same, over the long run, do doubles increase but batting average stay the same? If that is the case, does the increase in doubles come at the expense of triples and home runs (as well as singles) or do they stay pretty much the same (because those factors didn't change) and only the frequency of singles drop because I would think the total number of hits would stay the same if batting average does.

Or, am I overthinking this?

[Orcin]

From the OOTPB manual:

Ballpark Factors

The Ballpark Factors section directly impacts how hitters perform in the selected ballpark, over a large sample size. Ballpark Factors are extremely important, as they directly affect the outcome of plays in a given park.

Ballpark factors are based on a "norm" of 1.000. That is, a ballpark with all 1.000 factors is essentially a "neutral" park where hitters will all perform similarly. As the numbers increase, that factor becomes more common. So, for example, if your AVG Overall factor is 1.100, you can expect that if you had identical players in this park and a neutral park, the player in the park with the 1.100 AVG Overall factor would have a slightly higher average. The modifiers are not straight percentages. So, a 2.000 doesn't mean you will do "twice as well."

AVG Overall
Affects the overall batting average for hitters in this park. The overall is calculated based on the values for AVG LHB and AVG RHB.
AVG LHB
Affects the batting average for left-handed hitters in this park
AVG RHB
Affects the batting average for right-handed hitters in this park
Doubles
Affects the number of doubles hit in this park
Triples
Affects the number of triples hit in this park
Home Runs Overall
Affects the overall number of home runs hit in this park. The overall is calculated based on the values for Home Runs LHB and Home Runs RHB.
Home Runs LHB
Affects the number of home runs hit in this park by left-handed hitters
Home Runs RHB
Affects the number of home runs hit in this park by right-handed hitters

Ballpark factors are worth considering when you choose players for your team. For example, if you are in a park with very low home run factors, perhaps paying top dollar to that big slugger won't be as productive, as many of his home runs won't carry out in that park.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Thalion

What I don't understand is what happens in the instance in which you increase one factor, and hold the other the same (or drop others).

For example, say you increase the factor for doubles and leave everything the same, over the long run, do doubles increase but batting average stay the same? If that is the case, does the increase in doubles come at the expense of triples and home runs (as well as singles) or do they stay pretty much the same (because those factors didn't change) and only the frequency of singles drop because I would think the total number of hits would stay the same if batting average does.

If doubles increase and hits do not increase, one must assume that the extra doubles come at the expense of the only factor not directly influenced, i.e. singles.

[Thalion]

Thanks, that helps a lot.

[sansterre]

The game treats doubles and triples as singles with a bonus, but home runs as a totally separate thing.

Ergo, as Orcin says, increasing Gap factors doesn't bump avg, but increasing home runs will.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by sansterre

The game treats doubles and triples as singles with a bonus, but home runs as a totally separate thing.

Ergo, as Orcin says, increasing Gap factors doesn't bump avg, but increasing home runs will.

I didn't say that. In fact, I think increasing home runs without changing average decreases singles. The only thing that changes average is changing average.

I don't think this is quite so straightforward as people seem to think. For example, if you drop home runs and leave average the same, all of those lost home runs don't just bounce off the wall and back to an outfielder for a single. I think these are gradual adjustments that have an effect over a very large sample size, i.e. seasons plural.

[Thalion]

Maybe those "lost" home runs just turn into balls in play that have a chance to be doubles or triples depending on the fielding rating of the player in the area the ball is hit?

That may contribute to the thought that I have heard that having a big ballpark (real low HR factors) and outfielders with high OF range is a good thing.

I would think at some point, fielding ratings have to affect whether a hit is in fact, a hit.

It's definitely not as straight forward as people think.

[One Post Wonder]

Originally Posted by Orcin

I didn't say that. In fact, I think increasing home runs without changing average decreases singles. The only thing that changes average is changing average.

I don't think this is quite so straightforward as people seem to think. For example, if you drop home runs and leave average the same, all of those lost home runs don't just bounce off the wall and back to an outfielder for a single. I think these are gradual adjustments that have an effect over a very large sample size, i.e. seasons plural.

You're saying how things work IRL, but I'm pretty sure things don't even out like this in OOTP. After all, you can reduce both HR and average at the same time just for one type of batter.

Gap hits aren't divided by left and right, so if you rob lefties of home runs in your ballpark, if you have a hit at all it is no more likely to be a double than if a right hander had hit it. At least that's how I'm interpreting the numbers.

Really, only a dev can clear this up. The rest of us are guessing.

[One Post Wonder]

Originally Posted by Thalion

That may contribute to the thought that I have heard that having a big ballpark (real low HR factors) and outfielders with high OF range is a good thing.

It's true IRL. But the size of a ballpark here is cosmetic regarding home runs. You could have a low HR park that is 300ft to center and 240 down the lines, so I'm not sure if outfielders would need to cover ground purely based on HR settings or on something else instead.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by One Post Wonder

You're saying how things work IRL, but I'm pretty sure things don't even out like this in OOTP. After all, you can reduce both HR and average at the same time just for one type of batter.

Gap hits aren't divided by left and right, so if you rob lefties of home runs in your ballpark, if you have a hit at all it is no more likely to be a double than if a right hander had hit it. At least that's how I'm interpreting the numbers.

Really, only a dev can clear this up. The rest of us are guessing.

I am not interpreting anything. I am reading from the game manual.

Obviously, the developers have more knowledge than what they have divulged in the manual. Whether they choose to share that is up to them.

[Thalion]

Agreed, Orcin. We're just conjecturing right now.

Since I only really started reading the boards since I started playing PT, I thought maybe this came up in the past before and some kind of information was divulged previously.

[Josquin]

Originally Posted by Orcin

I didn't say that. In fact, I think increasing home runs without changing average decreases singles. The only thing that changes average is changing average.

I think this would be the only way to make all the ballpark factors consistent with each other.

AVG - determines the amount of balls in play that become base hits
Doubles - determines the fraction of hits that become doubles
Triples - determines the fraction of hits that become triples
HR - determines the fraction of hits that become homeruns

So all the extra-base hits come at the expense of singles, and don't affect the batting average.

[Kushiel]

Originally Posted by Josquin

I think this would be the only way to make all the ballpark factors consistent with each other.

AVG - determines the amount of balls in play that become base hits
Doubles - determines the fraction of hits that become doubles
Triples - determines the fraction of hits that become triples
HR - determines the fraction of hits that become homeruns

So all the extra-base hits come at the expense of singles, and don't affect the batting average.

It must be something like this.The little short season we just had to finish beta is the first time I tinkered with any factors. I did not see the average move when I changed home runs lower and increased doubles and triples.

[pstrickert]

Garlon is the person who devised the method for creating OOTP Park factors. In a discussion elsewhere, he wrote, “There is no such thing as absolute park factors. It is always relative to the other parks in the league at the time.” Later, he offered an illustration. ”You cannot ADD production to the league with park factors in OOTP, the League Totals Modifiers prevent such a thing from happening. You could set all the teams to Dodger Stadium, but the entire league won't turn into a pitcher wonderland because all of the park would be equal to each other. The only way park effects work is through the differences in park factors.”

Maybe this discussion is only relevant to historical leagues, not PT. I’m not smart enough to tell you.

[Dogberry99]

How do batting and pitching styles (ie Pull Hitters, Groundball Pitchers, et al) play into this larger equation?

[Thalion]

Originally Posted by pstrickert

Garlon is the person who devised the method for creating OOTP Park factors. In a discussion elsewhere, he wrote, “There is no such thing as absolute park factors. It is always relative to the other parks in the league at the time.” Later, he offered an illustration. ”You cannot ADD production to the league with park factors in OOTP, the League Totals Modifiers prevent such a thing from happening. You could set all the teams to Dodger Stadium, but the entire league won't turn into a pitcher wonderland because all of the park would be equal to each other. The only way park effects work is through the differences in park factors.”

Maybe this discussion is only relevant to historical leagues, not PT. I’m not smart enough to tell you.

Ooh! That raises a whole other set of questions.

[Weaseltail]

The threads below have some interesting info on how ballpark factors work.

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...d.php?t=243722

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...d.php?t=193897

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...d.php?t=249893

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...d.php?t=187744

Can't vouch for the accuracy of the analysis since this stuff makes my head hurt.

[Orcin]

After reading the threads linked above, I am more convinced than ever that ballparks in PT should not be customizable except for name (and other cosmetic items) and have park factors of 1.000 locked in.

Originally Posted by Questdog

Park factors not totaling to a 1.000 average across the board is not a problem as far as skewing the overall stats of a league since OOTP sets the LTMs with the park factors in place to get the overall league stats in line with what they should be.

The problem with the factors not averaging to 1.000 is that you cannot know exactly what the actual affect of the factors are by just looking at the settings.

For instance, if the park factors of one category in a league average out to say 1.500, then a park with a 1.000 setting is actually below average in that league and not neutral. A park factor setting of 1.200 would actually be below average and so when you look at the home/road stats for that category the team should perform better on the road.

If all the factors average to 1.000 then you'd know to expect a team with a 1.200 factor to perform better at home.

Originally Posted by Charlie Hough

The way that OOTP handles park factors is based on real life park factors and how they are calculated. That's why they have to total 1.000 if you don't want deviation from adherence to the league totals that you have set. In theory, if you adjust one and it offsets the balance, you are supposed to adjust the others.

Park factors also play a huge role in historical OOTP games, particularly if you're not using neutralized stats. If you're not using neutralized stats, then using park factors will effectively double the impact of your ballparks. This is because, theoretically, the player stats for that historical season were already influenced by the ballparks, and if you add park factors on top of the player's ratings, which were determined by his real stats, then you're potentially going to skew results. So, the guy who hit 50 home runs in a hitter's ballpark that season might hit 65 because the park factors are double-influencing his performance. This is why people who don't play with neutralized stats are advised to set each park's factors to exactly 1.000 for every category in historical games. But this is problematic when you consider that players can change teams in historical games, and they can take on a life of their own. So that's why some people recommend playing with neutralized stats, so players can move around and their performances can be influenced with relative ballpark realism.

However, this real-life basis is also why there has been so much confusion over the park factors in OOTP over the years. As I pointed out, most people think of park factors intuitively and assume that they should reflect a park's real, long-term impact on statistical results and not merely the single-season statistical output within that park relative to the output among all other parks in an MLB season.

So, this is why I have brought up the real life calculations, to help explain how and why OOTP handles park factors the way that it does. And I also bring it up because I think the real-life park factor methodology is flawed, and we need a better approach. At the very least, I don't think it's advisable for people to ensure that their park factors total 1.000 if they are not trying to strictly run an MLB season and base things on exact league totals. For example, let's say that you've created a league based on the MLB, but you want half your ballparks to be much friendler to pitchers. Well, you're not going to see any major change in results if all your ballpark factors add up to 1.000. Instead, they should add up to less than 1.000, which will realistically reflect the potential impact of half the ballparks suddenly being pitcher-friendly parks.

[Orcin]

Yeah, I thought I said this already...

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...2&postcount=24

[Zorro]

Originally Posted by Orcin

Yeah, I thought I said this already...

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...2&postcount=24

Yes, Again I agree with that. Lol.....