Do you see more AI trade logic at different times of year

chriskelly · 07-17-2018, 12:01 PM

I have trading on Hard / Favor prospects, 55% rating. scouting on high.
I'm noticing in the winter, before arbitration, the AI is much more willing to deal talent, and I"m not sure why that is. For example, team X who was a playoff team offered their best pitching prospect, ML ready, 24 years old, for my LF'er, 27, who just hit .315 with like 12 HRs. Just to see, I did the deal, and they put my LF as their 4th OF. that's a lot to give up for a 4th OF. so, alt-ctrl-delete, wait until Dec......now they won't even consider dealing the guy....and nothing else changed?

Another weird example, Team in 'building a dynasty' status offers me their 28 year old #2 starter for an avg OF and SP that are both cheap. The P makes 9M this year and next, then team option as it goes up to 12M. This team has highest payroll in baseball, so I figure it's a salary dump. But....the team just signed a FA SP to a $7M deal to be their 5th starter. Makes no sense.

Timofmars · 07-17-2018, 01:20 PM

It could be that a lot of factors the AI considers all change right at the end of the season. They suddenly have a new budget. They see new holes in their lineup for the next season as some players are upcoming free agents with no extension in place. Depending on how it is programmed, there may even be a sudden change in the "current year" stats becoming previous year stats. I think that might explain a bit about your first example.

For your 2nd example, what were the starter's stats for the previous years? Having AI evaluations depend 45% on stats seems like it could result in big swings in how players are valued based on 1 year's performance. Maybe this player had a poor season?

I don't think the AI cares too much about its spare salary budget. It seems to value players on whether they are overpaid/underpaid based on their salaries compared to the "typical player salary" numbers in the financial settings of the game. This is a flaw in the AI.

Really, each AI team should value money differently based on their total budget. Rich teams should care less about money and should have a higher acceptable level for what players should earn for a certain level of ability.

As for why the team signed a relatively expensive 5th starter, it's hard to say. I think the AI doesn't really compare free agents to each other to look for value. I think they kind of look at what's available and find one that offers improvement for their team, then if the player's demands are acceptable and they have the money, they bid on him at around that asking price. So they may overpay because they stopped looking once they found someone, and this one happened to have a pretty high asking price, but it was acceptable to the team because they could afford it.

Or multiple teams can pick the same player and enter a bidding war until all but one team drops out from the rising price becoming unacceptable.

chriskelly · 07-17-2018, 01:51 PM

You make some good points. I also didn't consider fog of war...maybe one of these teams has a scout who over/under values those involved. Whenever I trade w/ the AI, I look at their roster to make sure the deal makes sense to them, or I don't do it I do often see the AI trading into their strength; like dealing "fair' value for a player, then that player ending up on their bench or bullpen because they are not better than what they already have

I think I will make it a practice not to trade w/ the AI until the FA season begins. seems like there would be more stability of decision making then

07-17-2018, 12:01 PM	#1
chriskelly All Star Reserve Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 753	Do you see more AI trade logic at different times of year I have trading on Hard / Favor prospects, 55% rating. scouting on high. I'm noticing in the winter, before arbitration, the AI is much more willing to deal talent, and I"m not sure why that is. For example, team X who was a playoff team offered their best pitching prospect, ML ready, 24 years old, for my LF'er, 27, who just hit .315 with like 12 HRs. Just to see, I did the deal, and they put my LF as their 4th OF. that's a lot to give up for a 4th OF. so, alt-ctrl-delete, wait until Dec......now they won't even consider dealing the guy....and nothing else changed? Another weird example, Team in 'building a dynasty' status offers me their 28 year old #2 starter for an avg OF and SP that are both cheap. The P makes 9M this year and next, then team option as it goes up to 12M. This team has highest payroll in baseball, so I figure it's a salary dump. But....the team just signed a FA SP to a $7M deal to be their 5th starter. Makes no sense.

07-17-2018, 01:20 PM	#2
Timofmars Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Feb 2018 Posts: 251	It could be that a lot of factors the AI considers all change right at the end of the season. They suddenly have a new budget. They see new holes in their lineup for the next season as some players are upcoming free agents with no extension in place. Depending on how it is programmed, there may even be a sudden change in the "current year" stats becoming previous year stats. I think that might explain a bit about your first example. For your 2nd example, what were the starter's stats for the previous years? Having AI evaluations depend 45% on stats seems like it could result in big swings in how players are valued based on 1 year's performance. Maybe this player had a poor season? I don't think the AI cares too much about its spare salary budget. It seems to value players on whether they are overpaid/underpaid based on their salaries compared to the "typical player salary" numbers in the financial settings of the game. This is a flaw in the AI. Really, each AI team should value money differently based on their total budget. Rich teams should care less about money and should have a higher acceptable level for what players should earn for a certain level of ability. As for why the team signed a relatively expensive 5th starter, it's hard to say. I think the AI doesn't really compare free agents to each other to look for value. I think they kind of look at what's available and find one that offers improvement for their team, then if the player's demands are acceptable and they have the money, they bid on him at around that asking price. So they may overpay because they stopped looking once they found someone, and this one happened to have a pretty high asking price, but it was acceptable to the team because they could afford it. Or multiple teams can pick the same player and enter a bidding war until all but one team drops out from the rising price becoming unacceptable.

07-17-2018, 01:51 PM	#3
chriskelly All Star Reserve Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 753	You make some good points. I also didn't consider fog of war...maybe one of these teams has a scout who over/under values those involved. Whenever I trade w/ the AI, I look at their roster to make sure the deal makes sense to them, or I don't do it I do often see the AI trading into their strength; like dealing "fair' value for a player, then that player ending up on their bench or bullpen because they are not better than what they already have I think I will make it a practice not to trade w/ the AI until the FA season begins. seems like there would be more stability of decision making then