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OOTP Dynasty Reports Tell us about the OOTP dynasties you have built! |
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#1 |
All Star Starter
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Iahiodo a.k.a. the flyover
Posts: 1,635
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"The System" (or How Leverage Killed Conventional Pitching Wisdom)
The Oakland Athletics had Moneyball in the nineties. The Seattle Mariners have The System in 2012.
In a bid to end a decade of mediocrity, Mariners management hired a new manager with a radical pitching philosophy. At a time when all major league teams sport a five-man rotation and often have at least six or seven major league caliber starting pitchers to deal with injuries, The System calls for a three-man rotation. Those three men, "starters" by name only, perhaps, should be inexpensive, league-average pitchers. Not only that, they don't need to be starters at all, because they won't throw more than around fifty pitches in a game. If this sounds intriguing, then you will want to follow along as one organization attempts to forever change the most fundamental concepts of a pitching staff. --- What exactly is The System? Well, it's a lot of things, but let's start off with some basic points: - The general purpose of The System is to make sure that every inning thrown by the team's best pitchers are valuable innings, while the team's worst pitchers pitch only in less valuable innings (e.g. innings that are less likely to affect the outcome of the game, for example the final two innings of a 12-2 blowout for either team). This relies on the concept of leverage, if you're familiar with that baseball term. - There is no team closer or set-up man. There are only relievers (some better than others of course). Any reliever may come into the game at any time if the circumstances dictate they will increase the team's chances of winning. This rule takes no mercy: it is possible for even a starting pitcher to be pulled from a game after facing just one hitter. - The starting pitchers are average quality pitchers and very rarely reach five innings. Their job is to see how far they can get into a game before running into trouble while being decent enough pitchers to remain in the game for 3-5 innings if the offense happens to break out early. - There is a three-man rotation. More durable starters may throw up to 50-60 pitches, while less durable starters may be capped closer to 40 pitches. - The System requires a handful of good relief pitchers plus a few more specialists, including lefty specialists along with one or two long relievers (who would be actual starters on other teams). Follow along as The Coach builds his system team and attempts to revolutionize baseball all while traditionalists and critics hope to see it fail. ----- Note: The first handful of posts will be mostly background as I make some moves to get a team in place that can run The System. After a team is in place that can do The System justice, I will post more about the actual gameday strategy aspects, which are at the heart of this dynasty. Last edited by Prodigal Son; 04-12-2012 at 03:59 AM. |
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#2 |
All Star Starter
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Iahiodo a.k.a. the flyover
Posts: 1,635
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March 22, 2012
Meetings, meetings, meetings. The Coach has explained The System so many times that he's starting to think it would have been easier to just write a book prior to coming into the office. Owners, the general manager, minor league managers, scouts, everyone wants to know just what in the hell is going on with this radical new approach to baseball. When lead scout Carl Willis sat down with The Coach to discuss the system, there wasn't much discussion coming from Carl for the first ten minutes. There was, however, a lot of frowning and a snarl or two as he listened to The Coach. Finally, Carl couldn't hold it in any longer. "You mean we just stop developing starting pitchers? We just trade them? We just don't draft them? Doesn't sound to me like they matter any more!" The Coach had to explain that starting pitchers matter, just not as much as everyone thinks they do. And he explained that you don't need five or six good ones, just one or two good ones plus a few guys who don't need to be much better than AAA pitchers. That was two days ago, and apparently Carl didn't leave as enlightened as The Coach had hoped. Since then, The Coach has fielded five or ten phone calls from various stuffed shirts expressing their reservations about "dismantling our farm system." It was at this point he realized that this is going to be a long, trying, frustrating transition. But if it goes well, IF he can keep the job for a couple of seasons, then this will change everything. Last edited by Prodigal Son; 04-12-2012 at 07:17 AM. |
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#3 |
All Star Starter
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Iahiodo a.k.a. the flyover
Posts: 1,635
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March 30, 2012
Before he can change all of baseball, The Coach has to change his team. He started last week by telling star starting pitcher "King" Felix Hernandez that he was headed to the bullpen. As the old saying goes, "we laughed, we cried, he yelled." He also asked the old coach repeatedly if this proposition was being presented in jest, accompanied each time by an emphatic adverbial use of profanity. Crucial conversations, indeed. Things never did get much better with King Felix. On opening day yesterday, he came in with one runner on base in the sixth inning with a 4-2 lead and promptly surrendered four earned runs. This was particularly disappointing considering that The System was working perfectly up until that point that day. Blake Beaven started and tossed three innings, giving up one run before giving way to LHP Jason Vargas, who handled lefty Seth Smith at a key time with runners on base and then stayed on to throw two innings of one-run ball. And so the Mariners lost their first game 6-5, and King Felix earned $105,000. That's 1/162nd of his $17 million annual salary. The Coach calculated it on his cell phone while sitting in bed that night. |
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#4 |
All Star Starter
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Iahiodo a.k.a. the flyover
Posts: 1,635
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April 13, 2012
Seattle lost its second game also. Normally this wouldn't be a huge deal, but Seattle and Oakland started the season with two games in Japan a full week ahead of all the other teams. This means The Coach got to sit around for a week and listen to media reports about how he was destroying the organization and wasting King Felix's talent and bastardizing the game of baseball and...well, you get the idea. Did these sports reporters think the Mariners were good last year or something? Anyway, The Coach righted the ship. Or maybe it was Jesus Montero who righted the ship? The rookie started crushing home runs and carrying the offense, while the Mariners rattled off nine straight wins, including a four-game sweep of a good Texas team. The team did lose a few games, including yesterday's. Then the team announced its first major move. It didn't take The Coach long to send his $17 million man packing. Hernandez, just 26 years old, is already one of the best pitchers in baseball, so several teams expressed interest early in the season even with that hefty price tag. Ultimately, the Mariners found a match with a team willing to part with a couple of top-notch bullpen arms: the Atlanta Braves. The Braves really wanted Hernandez and had the depth in the bullpen to give up some talent there. However, to make the deal work financially, the Mariners had to take salary off the Braves' hands. And Frank Wren wasn't willing to let the guys with that salary go cheaply. Ultimately, ol' Carl was right: The Coach talked the front office into trading away the farm. This included Taijuan Walker, a top 20 overall prospect and one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, plus the organization's top catching prospect, plus its first-round pick in the 2012 amateur draft. Hey, The Coach wants to make this System thing happen before he gets fired, even if that means giving up two of the best young starting pitchers in all of baseball! The deal ended up being: SP Hernandez, SP Walker (prospect), C Marlette (prospect), 3B Chone Figgins, LF Casper Wells, 1st Round Draft Pick, for P Johnny Venters, P Craig Kimbrel, C Brian McCann, 2B Dan Uggla, and CF Michael Bourne. While the Mariners gave up a lot for the future, they got a lot for the now. Uggla and Bourne are good players, but Bourne is a free agent at the end of the year, and Uggla is 32 years old and makes $13 million per year, so the Braves were willing to let them go. McCann is a great player, but his contract expires after next season after which time he will undoubtedly ask for New York Yankee-type money. The Braves, who are in a semi-rebuilding phase, avoided losing these guys for nothing and now have a starting rotaton of five guys all 26 years old or younger (at least until Tim Hudson comes back from the DL) plus now own two of the very top starting pitching prospects. They will be a team to watch. More importantly, the Mariners got their guys. Kimbrel and Venters will join Brandon League and Sean Kelly to give Seattle four really good relievers. Venters joins quality veteran pitcher George Sherrill as the go-to lefties. Last edited by Prodigal Son; 04-12-2012 at 04:00 AM. |
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#5 |
All Star Starter
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Iahiodo a.k.a. the flyover
Posts: 1,635
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April 15, 2012
When The Coach took over the Mariners, the organization owned one of the best farm systems in baseball. Not any more. With the front office buying 100% into The System, the team has traded away its blue-chip starting pitching prospects. First, as mentioned, Walker went to the Braves. Just hours later, Seattle traded SP Danny Hultzen, the #21 prospect in all of baseball, to the Kansas City Royals, along with SP James Paxton, the #44 prospect. Those two prospects were packaged with catcher Miguel Olivo, a third round draft pick, and a seventh-round draft pick in order to acquire speedy fourth-outfielder extraordinaire Jason Bourgeois and the Royals' first-round draft pick in 2012. While it can be argued that Hultzen and Paxton were each worth a first-round pick, The Coach wanted Bourgeois, or so he said. It seems what he really wanted was to get rid of the starting pitchers for whatever he could get in exchange. The Mariners also worked out a deal with free agent Roy Oswalt. The Mariners outbid at least one other team, agreeing to pay the veteran pitcher around $6 million for the 2012 season. Oswalt is a perfect guy for The System. He's not an elite pitcher, so he won't ask for, say, $17 million per year. But he is pretty good, and he can pitch innings that are not the highest leverage (that's what Kimbrel, League, Venters, etc. are for), but the next tier down. The Coach envisions using Roy Oswalt in a situation, for example, when the Mariners are winning by two runs in the fifth inning. Oswalt could potentially pitch over 130 innings, which may lead the team. |
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#6 |
All Star Starter
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Iahiodo a.k.a. the flyover
Posts: 1,635
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May 14, 2012
The Mariners may be for real. At 22-14, they lead the AL West, and they just finished a sweep of the Yankees yesterday. How did they get here? First, only one pitcher on the team is projected to pitch more than 145 innings this year. That is number one starter Blake Beavan, who is the only starter in the three-man rotation who is actually a starting pitcher by trade. He has even been called on to pitch through five innings a couple of times when the Mariners got out to an early lead and the bullpen needed rest. To date, he has started 13 games and pitched 43 innings for an average of 3 1/3 IP per start. The Coach thinks this is just about perfect. Beavan is 2-3 with a 3.12 ERA. Kevin Millwood, who pitches in low-leverage situations, is second on the team with 32 IP over 14 games (zero starts). You can tell he pitches in low-leverage situations because his record is 0-0, although he does have 3 saves from picking up 3-inning saves in blowout wins. Contrast Millwood with Craig Kimbrel, who has thrown just 17 innings with Seattle over 11 games but already has four wins plus one save. Or Shawn Kelley, who has also pitched 17 innings and is 2-1 with four saves. These numbers are just a primer, up next is getting into the games and seeing how The System works. First, here is the Mariners pitching staff, divided into five roles that make sense within The System, with talent level as judged by the team's lead scout (with scouting accuracy on very high). Note that no pitcher on the staff has an assigned role of SP in game. They are all MR's or CL's. Starting Pitchers (SP's) RHP Blake Beavan (6 stamina, 2.5 stars) RHP Tom Wilhemson (3 stamina, 3.5 stars) RHP Hisashi Iwakuma (3 stamina, 3 stars) High-Leverage Pitchers (HL's) RHP Craig Kimbrel (2 stamina, 4.5 stars) RHP Brandon League (3 stamina, 4.5 stars) LHP Jonny Venters (3 stamina, 4.5 stars) RHP Shawn Kelley (3 stamina, 3.5 stars) Medium-Leverage Pitchers (ML's) RHP Roy Oswalt (7 stamina, 3.5 stars) LHP George Sherrill (2 stamina, 2.5 stars) RHP Hector Noesi (6 stamina, 2 stars) Low-Leverage Pitchers (LL's) LHP Jason Vargas (7 stamina, 1 star) RHP Kevin Millwood (6 stamina, 1 star) No-Leverage Pitchers (NL's) RHP Erasmo Ramirez (6 stamina, 1 star) LHP Charlie Forbush (6 stamina, 1 star) These categories may be self-explanatory, but just to be sure: HL's come in to the game when the game is really close, and generally when runners are already on base. ML's come in when the game is still close enough that the team behind has a good chance of coming back, say a two run difference. They will often, but not always, give way to an HL if multiple runners reach base or if there is a better matchup out of the bullpen (i.e. lefty-lefty). ML's will probably pitch the most innings and despite coming out of the bullpen may be the closest thing The System has to starting pitchers. LL's generally pitch when the game isn't very close but there is still at least a decent chance of a comeback. For example, when the team is losing by four runs in the third or fourth inning. NL's generally pitch when there is very little chance of the pitcher affecting the outcome of the game, such as when one team is winning by 5-6 runs. NL's just need to be able to complete innings with any respectable level of performance and thus can be replacement-level pitchers. They may find themselves getting demoted to AAA if they throw a lot of pitches and will be unavailable for a few days. This is one of the reasons there are 14 pitchers listed above despite the fact that The Mariners generally carry 12 or 13. Any time the score changes, the pitcher in the game may change to reflect the difference. The idea is to never give games away but also to not waste the most valuable pitchers' innings. Oh yeah, and to save money by not having to pay for starting pitchers, who are arguably the most expensive players in baseball. Total payroll of all the above pitchers: less than $25 million. Coming up next is a chance to see how this all works on game day. Last edited by Prodigal Son; 04-12-2012 at 04:47 AM. |
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#7 |
Minors (Double A)
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: in an island,Greece
Posts: 180
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Box Scores please !
__________________
"Kids are always chasing rainbows, but baseball is a world where you can catch them." - Johnny Vander Meer |
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#8 |
Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
Posts: 231
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#9 | |
All Star Starter
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Iahiodo a.k.a. the flyover
Posts: 1,635
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Quote:
(Also, what's the best way to post box scores? I just took a screenshot for this one.) |
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#10 |
All Star Starter
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Iahiodo a.k.a. the flyover
Posts: 1,635
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May 14, 2012
Today's Mariners game is at the Red Sox with Tom Wilhelmson going up against Josh Beckett. Seattle is just a few games into a stretch of over two straight weeks without an off day, so The Coach will have to monitor the use of his pitchers particularly closely to make sure that enough arms are available each day. Notable statuses for today's game: HL Shawn Kelley and ML Roy Oswalt are fully rested along with ML/LL Noesi. Sherill, Kimbrel, League and Venters all had yesterday off and are available, but they all pitched two days in a row prior to that and could use another day off if possible. LL Kevin Millwood is the only pitcher who is completely unavailable, having thrown 66 pitches five days ago and 43 two days ago. Below is the matchup screen that includes Seattle's lineup plus the team's pitching staff ratings. Obviously, the pitching role assignments don't mean anything because they are not at all set up to accommodate The System. However, you can note that HL's have been assigned the CL role and ML's and lower have been assigned the MR role. This is just cosmetic to help separate them out in a hurry when viewing/sorting. You'll also note that several pitchers are yellow to indicate they are tired, but clicking on Craig Kimbrel (for example) shows that he is at "77% - Rested" for health status, and thus is available to use today. The pitchers with a red bar, however, are exhausted and really are unavailable. Anyway, I will not post these screens every game, probably just once a year or if something major changes with the roster or assignments. |
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#11 |
All Star Starter
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Iahiodo a.k.a. the flyover
Posts: 1,635
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5/14/2012
Game Commentary Michael Bourne strikes out to lead off, which is significant because it's already his 40th strikeout of the year. A leadoff man on pace for 160+ k's isn't the best thing. No wonder he's hitting .218. Seattle salvages the inning with a Montero double followed by a McCann single to take the 1-0 lead off of Josh Beckett. Wilhelmsen pitches well through two but walks the #9 hitter with one out in the third, bringing up the top of Boston's lineup. As there are four lefties in a row due up, a runner is on base, and Wilhemsen has already thrown 37 pitches, now is a good time to go to the pen. If it were the bottom of the lineup, The Coach would go to ML Sherrill, but with some great hitters due up, he goes with HL Venters instead. Venters promptly gives up two hits to put the Sox up 2-1 before getting out of the inning. Well damn. These HL's are really good, but they aren't perfect. Venters stays on through one more batter in the next inning (4th) to strike out LHB David Ortiz. Trailing 2-1, with one out already recorded in the inning, and with the bottom of the lineup due, The Coach passes up his HLs and top MLs to go down to Iwakuma (which he later discovered was a mistake; he should have picked Noesi. He just swapped those two in the starting rotation a few days ago and forgot about that. Noesi will probably have to take Iwakuma's next start.). Iwakuma works around an Ackley fielding error to get out of the inning unscathed. Iwakuma stays on for the bottom of the fifth and surrenders a single. The runner is bunted to second, bringing up LHB Carl Crawford. The Coach goes to the bullpen for LHP George Sherrill, who gives up a couple base runners to load 'em up but gets out of the inning unscathed, recording both outs by K. The game heads to the bottom of the sixth with the Red Sox still up 2-1. Still within striking distance, The Coach goes to his main ML, Roy Oswalt, who pitches a scoreless sixth and remains in the game for the 7th. Unfortunately, the wheels come off in the seventh as Oswalt is victimized by a fielding error and surrenders a walk and a couple hits without recording an out. With the score now 4-1 and the bases loaded, The Coach saves Oswalt from throwing any more pitches and brings in LL Erasmo Ramirez who, ironically, immediately gets three outs without giving up a single run. Ramirez stays on to pitch a scoreless eighth inning, but the Mariners can't muster any offense and fall 4-1. Comments: The pitching was fine today, giving up just four runs to a good Boston offense at Fenway. The problem was no offense (plus some bad defense). The good news is that the Mariners only used one of their four HL's, Venters, who threw just 16 pitches. So it was a day of rest for most of the Mariners' top arms. Iwakuma just threw 11 pitches, so he could still make his scheduled start in two days despite The Coach's mix-up. Last edited by Prodigal Son; 04-12-2012 at 07:26 AM. |
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#12 |
Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 243
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This is extremely interesting. Finding and developing starting pitchers in OOTP has always been one of the hardest things for me to do whereas relievers have always been abundant. I would love to see a team do this in real life (if one has not). I would particularly enjoy the media's reaction to such a controversial idea.
Question though, are you enacting this paradigm shift across all levels of your organization? If so (and even if not), does this change the way you will approach events like the amateur draft? What about how you evaluate a pitcher? Is there a greater emphasis on stuff (ala Kenley Jansen) versus control or movement (David Wells and Jake Westbrook spring to mind)? Just throwing in my two cents, I think it would be advantageous to field a team of starters and medium leverage types built around getting the quick, easy out; this is where ground ball specialists and control gurus would come into play. Similarly, your high leverage guys should be dominant in all three of the main areas in the mold of a great closer like Rivera or Papelbon. Then, I would hope to field a bunch of underrated, possibly overlooked pitchers in the remaining two spots; pitchers like Scott Olsen, Jason Marquis, and Clayton Mortensen would be ideal candidates (off the top of my head). Obviously, this is your dynasty and idea and you have ultimate freedom to run it however you like, but the idea is thought provoking enough that I decided to post in this thread instead of catch up on some needed sleep because OOTP 13 has thrown off my sleep schedule! EDIT: I actually think I just overcomplicated your original post describing "The System", but I still am interested in hearing (rather, reading) about how The Coach will be approaching pitcher development in the minors and the amateur draft, |
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#13 |
All Star Starter
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Iahiodo a.k.a. the flyover
Posts: 1,635
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5/15/2012
Game Commentary The Mariners head into game two against the Red Sox in good shape. All pitchers are rested enough to pitch, although Oswalt, Venters, and Sherrill are a little tired. Because the staff is so well-rested, The Coach puts in Noesi to start instead of Beavan. This is because Beavan, being the team's only true starter, is a good guy to save for another day in case the staff gets used a lot today. Besides, Beaven threw too many pitches (60+) his last start and could use an extra day of rest. Noesi has been struggling lately and will be on a very short leash. An Uggla single and Brendan Ryan double put the Mariners up 1-0 after the top of the first inning. Noesi gives up a leadoff single. The Coach considers pulling him with three more LHB's due up, but with the 1-0 lead and with wanting a day of rest for his two best LHP's, he decides not to. (The team really needs another good LHP.) But Crawford is thrown out stealing second base and Noesi works a scoreless frame. An Uggla two-run homer in the third inning puts Seattle up 3-0 and makes The Coach happy that he decided to stick with Noesi instead of burning up a higher pitcher in the first inning. Crawford, Ellsbury, Gonzalez, and Ortiz (all LHB) are up in the bottom of the third. Given the 3-0 lead, The Coach decides to take a risk and see if he can get by with LHP Jason Vargas, an LL. Vargas does record two outs but ends up with runners on the corners with two outs. This may be the most important AB of the game, so The Coach goes to HL Craig Kimbrel, who gets a pop-up out to end the inning. Seattle picks up one more in the top of the fourth to go up 4-0. Kimbrel only threw three pitches, so he stays in and needs just seven more pitches to retire the side. Now if Seattle can score another run, it can go to LL's without worrying about it. But they cannot do so in the top of the fifth, so The Coach decides to leave Kimbrel in with the top of the Sox order due up. Kimbrel makes it through the inning but gives up one run to make it 4-1. Seattle responds with another run to make it 5-1 heading into the bottom of the sixth. With the bottom of the order due up and with it being later in the game, The Coach brings in LL Kevin Millwood. Unfortunately, he records one strikeout and then promptly surrenders two runs. Back to the 'pen! On comes HL Brandon League, who strands a runner and holds on to a 5-3 lead. The Sox are making Seattle earn every bit of this game... With the game still close, League stays on for the 7th. He gives up one run. 5-4. Ouch, tough game. Just when it seems that Seattle will have to burn every arm up today, the Mariners offense blows the game up with a five-spot in the top of the eighth and two more in the ninth. LL Erasmo Ramirez tosses the last two frames to end it. Comments: Ruthless game. Boston just wouldn't go away. Had Millwood been able to keep the lead, it would have been another great day of rest. Anyway, while Seattle had to burn up two HL's, at least it did so in a victory. Using two HL's isn't bad, but this game stung because the team had opportunities to blow it open and save those arms. Also, Kimbrel threw "just" 27 pitches (not bad for 2.1 IP) and League just 22, so League should be available tomorrow and Kimbrel probably could go tomorrow but should get at least one day off. Considering HL's Kelley and Venters weren't used at all, there should be plenty of firepower available on staff tomorrow, especially with Oswalt getting the day off as well. The offensive explosion that allowed Erasmo to finish the game was pretty important. Last edited by Prodigal Son; 04-12-2012 at 07:27 AM. |
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#14 | |
All Star Starter
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Iahiodo a.k.a. the flyover
Posts: 1,635
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Quote:
As for which types of relievers to find, it's very hard to find relievers (especially LHP's) who have good K rates and ALSO have great control. That being said, the lower the quality of pitcher, the more important control is. That's because if you bring in a HL LHP like Venters to face a LHB and he walks him, he's good enough that you can probably leave him in to face a RHB if one is coming up next. On the other hand, if you bring in a ML LHP (like Sherrill, for example) and he walks the LHB bringing up a dangerous RHB, then you have to pull him out of the game and he just wasted the appearance. Then you probably have to bring in an HL guy because the situation just got worse. That's frustrating and the wasted appearance can be a problem if you're running low on rested pitchers. There are some other factors and concerns, but I think it'll be more interesting to bring them out in the dynasty as things unfold. Last edited by Prodigal Son; 04-12-2012 at 07:33 AM. |
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#15 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Wisconsin
Posts: 5,242
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This is pretty rad!
One question though - are you really carrying 14 pitchers and just 11 position players? |
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#16 |
All Star Starter
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Iahiodo a.k.a. the flyover
Posts: 1,635
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The scouts are still trying to figure out who should be the last guy or two, so everyone is getting a chance. There have never been more than 13 pitchers on the team at one time. On the screenshot above, there are 13 (no Forbush), but the goal is to eventually carry just 12. That should be feasible if a couple of the guys are upgraded.
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#17 |
Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 226
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I have to try this for OOTP8. LOVE the idea
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#18 |
All Star Reserve
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: those blue remembered hills
Posts: 955
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Interested to see how this develops....thinking about Oakland didn't Tony LaRussa speculate on a similar idea in the late '80's when he was manager there.....12 pitchers where each of 4 "starters" went 3 innings or some such?
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#19 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Indiana
Posts: 9,847
Infractions: 1/0 (0)
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Fascinating. I will be following this with great interest.
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#20 |
Major Leagues
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 300
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Mark me down as following along too. I also will give this a try with Milwaukee - complete with a dynasty report. I find this idea very intriguing.
Sent from my Galaxy Nexus using Tapatalk 2
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