Stats-only league increasing offense

[stealofhome]

I'm trying out a stats-only league and did a test simulation to see how it would pan out. I did MLB-style fictional, no IFA, no independent leagues, and draft only built from feeder leagues (4 HS, 1 college). I turned off league evolution except for relocation/nickname change (Chicago Cubs became the San Antonio Valley Cats). I also increased scouting discoveries to 18/yr.

From 2017 to 2057 the LgERA increased from 4.30 to 5.18 and the LgAvg from .260 to .290+. Is there a way to design the league so that the offense/pitching talent stays somewhat balanced in the league to current day standards?

[slugga27]

What are your AI evaluation settings at?


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[NoOne]

seed player not equal to fictionally created players nor real life players.

there's a transition period while the league turns over... assuming default settings for aging and developement and numerous other factors: ~20-25years is about how long it takes... if real players, even longer. there are real amatuers for a few years in the amatuer drafts.

click auto-calculate Modifiers on the STats and AI page.. under league settings. best results are when all rosters are setup, for example, opening day before any games are played is an opportune time to click it.

don't change totals, as the screen says.. change modifiers in future if you want to change something individually. However, during hte transition, you'll need to click auto-calculate every so often... avoid doing it each year, though. stats get too flat.

once transition is over (stats level off, even if 'different' than initially)... it's all about the ebb and flow of talent created by the draft over ~20 years etc... so, this is the time to do some fine-tuning of modifiers, if you feel the need, because the changes will last.

pro tip: start and fictional league 20-30 years prior... sim to "correct" start day, erase all the history, stats, delete retired players, clear hof if you left it on for some odd reason etc etc... and it's like a newly created league.

if you do that, turn some stuff off before you sim the ~20+ years. less stuff the game has to create on the asthetic side, the better.

you can even start 25-30 years early and do a little fine-tuning for a few years before correct start date, if that's important to you.

[stealofhome]

Originally Posted by slugga27

what are your ai evaluation settings at?


Sent from my iphone using tapatalk

0/50/33/17

[NoOne]

ai eval won't do anything about this in any way. just to save you some time.

if you want different lineups or the AI to value vets or prospects more in their sliders, ai eval can help there. more stats you incorporate, the more 'knee-jerk' the gm's get to small samples of data (neither good nor bad... 100% relative to your specific purpose)

[stealofhome]

Originally Posted by NoOne

click auto-calculate Modifiers on the STats and AI page.. under league settings. best results are when all rosters are setup, for example, opening day before any games are played is an opportune time to click it.

Should I do this in every league I care about, only in feeders, only in MLB?

p.s. I like having a history of players, HOF, etc. when I start fictional (if only I was managing when Joe Smith was playing!)

[NoOne]

any league you care about the stats and what they look like... they remain in proprtion, so the differences are only asthetic if you don't care about them. if they were 1s.d. above baseline for this ability, they will likely remain 1 s.d. above average for that ability. you just have to re-learn what ~average or baseline is for each thing to do a meaningful evaluation. (as always)

So, if you know baseline you can do the ~same things with stats for promotions/demotions or however you read high school/college stats etc etc... just compare to new baseline that you see.

imo, i like things to be ~near the League Totals. i do not tailor them, but i do autocalc them during transition at same time i do mlb (*for first ~10 years or so for MiL). after transition, which i avoid with the tip i gave in other post, i will click it 1 time and maybe if i see it ebb or flow too much one direction i'll click again. i'm not too concerned if it;s off a bit. anywhere near is good enough for my MiL, your opinion may differ, but the process will be similar, just more attentive.

change in mlb is cuased by the newly created players. as they start flowing in, the mlb will change with them... slowly at first, then faster, then slower again as it the last few seed players retire at ~40. a bell curve-like shape would represent rate of chage, but not centered on axis, of course. mil turnover is a bit faster and more like a tide coming in. rookie will be ~created players within a ~3 years... even shorter if you have service time Rules for that level.

*** after ~10years the MiL will be fully turned over or enough that it won't matter much... how many 10+ mil players are there? if many, extend that ~10 year guess i just made. you get the idea... ie AAA may need more than 10years to chill out.

so, you can quit clicking auto-calc a lot sooner for the MiL than for the MLB (i mispoke a bit above) .. can fine tune them with some predictibility at that time. and unless you change draft rules or other relevant settings, it will stay the ~same over time... ebb and flow will happen wherever you put the totals and modifiers but it will stay anchored around a specific "Center".

[stealofhome]

I've been playing with the timing of the recalc button and still have some strange outliers (15 WAR seasons, etc) but getting things fine-tuned. This has been a lot of help.

Oh but I have been having a problem with not having enough players on minor league teams in the preseason.

[NoOne]

there's a ghost player option for MiL, allows it to play wiht fewer. essentially temp players are created to play the games and destroyed after a game is played. (you may see remnants if games remain to be played that day and at least one has been played already.)

with historical players, i'm not sure what else you can do? you could have fictional players augment MiL pool and click setting that doesn't allow them to advance to MLB as another option beyond ghost players. that would allow for a larger draft class or however you are injecting players into your leage each year... essentially you need more, obviously. but, if histocal real players aren't in large enogh # it can't happen without playing people out of era (wrong years etc).

i think this is a current issue with historic play and a mil system active based on past forum posts? like i said i don't play this way. bit unknown on somethings. career mil players may not be in the dB. so you only have the mlb players that "made it" from that time period. can't fill it with just that.

syntax check -

Re-calc - this is for players ratings. it's not on the Stats and AI page. how often you do this is all about what you want. no wrong way. although if you do it certain ways it will cause more peak/valley results or even them out over career depending on your chocies.

Auto-calculate modifiers button -- callibrates League Total Modifiers wiht current talent levels in league so that stats will be somewhere near the League Totals listed.

no "wrong way" with autocalculate either, but may not be as intuitive as far as what needs to be done to get what you want, and it may require compromise between individual results and league results matching what you want.. may not be able to get both. most likely cannot -- not a fault of ootp, but a funciton of varied perceptions human to human as the cause.

autocalc every year is bad. don't do it. adjust after auto calc to try to avoid a 15 war season if oyu didn't do somethign about that wiht Re-calc options.

you likely wil need to click autocaclulate in future if your stats start to deviate too much as things change - like an era change creating new types of players(different by ratings). whatever you also did after that, you should make some sort of note. e.g. you autocalc, then reduce HR by 10%, increase 2b by5% and reduce SO by 5%.... same process each time you autocalculate.

in that example i said era change.. not the best choice. the things you do after auto-calc may not remain the same after you go from 1 Era to the next as the new types of players develop and turnover the league. within 10 years or so you'll have to adjust those "things" you've learned to adjust after autocalculate.

if era doesn't change, no worries. or settings or...

[stealofhome]

I did mean autocalc in the previous post, not recalc. I'm still having problems, in fact where it seems like autoculating the league modifiers actually makes the problem worse.

I had two straight seasons of a .256/.260 AVG, then ran an autocalc in the preseason (modifier avg shown was .255) and the next three years were .280, .292, .293. What am I doing wrong?

[NoOne]

did you by chance chagne any of the league totals? if they don't jive as a set, it may cause this sort of problem? or at least 'problems' of some sort.

autocalc this year should be ~.001-.002 off the estimated BA in a 30T 162G season.. (not al or nl, but both together) smaller leagues, or lookng at half of a modern mlb, would be a bit more volatile.

what is the estimated slash that you see onthat Stats and AI screen.. should be right below the offensive #'s portion. if it's ~.280, that's why. dividing league total for hits/AB is going to be the estimate, surprise! hehe

if you stil have seed plaers filtering out or changing of historical eras, that's going to have all sorts of side effects on yearly stats. but, it shouldn't be a problem in 'that' year after clicking the the button. it will drift in folloiwing years though.

don't do it in preseason.. do it opening day before any game has been played. if a bunch of crappy players are around in ST it might cause what you are seeing... upping modifiers so that thoise players can be good enough so the league hits it's totals

(rougly of course and ebbs and flows with talent after that click of auto-calc -- in the case of some sort of transition, it will be drastic (eras/seed palyers))

eventually it will level out again. (rinse/repeat with historical eras, ficitonal will remain at an equillibrium indefinitely as long as you maintain same settings).

[stealofhome]

Slowly making progress on this, doing 15 years of simulation and then deleting league history. Calculating league modifiers the day before games begin in all leagues from majors down to high school. I think one issue where the league average wasn't matching up has to do with park factors in fictional stadiums so getting that worked on as well.

Just a couple more issues. Had some players after the league history deletion turn 0 years old in the MLB so they had very long careers. Also seemed like some players got elected to the hall of fame after the league history was deleted based on careers that started in the deleted league history time period.

[NoOne]

not sure about the second paragraph-- the stats shouldnt' exist, if deleted, but maybe just 'not used' as opposed to "0" filled in for actualy values.. then it misses that fact later for HoF functions??

but, some oddities may be inevitable based on choices you made about other thigs related to stats and ai settings.. like the 15 war guy.

if you have things where you want and a 15war still occurs, you'd have to adjust somethign that you liked, previously, in order to prvent it from occuring...

why is he 15 war? anything insane in particular? or across the board elevated stats?

is that guy even going to be created again in the next ~50-100 years? -- also somethign to consider.

maybe he's just an oultlier due to ratings?

IF interested, i have a spreadsheet somehwere... meh i'll just attach it..

you may have to make adjustments if you rleague setup isn't the same.. but exported file names will be the same, regardless....

e.g. i think it's setup for 2 subleageus or if i attach a newer one, just 1 subleague.

you can tell bcause each row on the data worksheet is adding 2 cells together from teh exported file. (al and nl, for example)

anyway, if you want ot callibrate the LTMs and investing this much time (the 15 years at a time stuff), this can help you out.

let it run over night for as long as it will go... then export data... use spreadsheet to adjust new set of LTM, rinse, repeat.

one sec on attachment... looking for it, may need to archive it due to forum restrictions on attached files. if oyu get a "this contains a macro warning" it's from 1 macro that you can click to update files without having to refresh linked files through the menu system. nothing nefarious and you can verify it.

in general, never open an unknown spreadsheet iwth a macro in it... potentialy very bad stuff can occur to your computer.

if it asks to update linked files, do NOT do so unless needed... and files are located WITH the spreadsheet in same directory or as instructed if different... can always update links yourself and point to new files, if necessary.

[NoOne]

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...d.php?t=264979

linked in this post, has instructions, i hope... says it does.. lol

this post itself has some ideas on what to work on first, and move up from there... no idea if it's outdated or accurate... i am sure i use it differently since then... 1 thing i immediatlely notice... you do not need to click autocalc modifiers more than 1 time to set first set of LTM, if you go that route... you already have a set of LTM in use, so this doesn't apply to you, but just in case.

also, i wouldn't follow the instruction on that post too closely... as i read... e.g. defensive and other stuff should be hammered out first... get errors per positon in line etc before you do a long-term simulation.

get any base stuff in-line first. then worry about league-wide stats like BA, SBatt and HR etc.

i thnk i explained it above better... if you add 1000hits, make sure to understand how many of those will also be doubles, triples and HR. they won't be 1000hits, so you need to adjust other things it 'touches'

****************
a different file is attached to this post you are reading.. the LTM spreadsheet is in the link above.

the League Totals tool spreadsheet will jsut help you create a set of LT that add up properly. it is NOT a ZIP file.. just rename with an .ODS extension replacing zip. (stupid forum rules on file types and attachments -- the link above IS an archive though due to file size... need winrar or 7zip to unpack it.. i took a shortcut with the 16kb ods file attached to this post at bottom. simple renam is all that is needed)

Defualts are only for minors... these are old LT set that i used in previous ootp releases for the MLB... you will have to change these to what you want..

yellow is an input box... it scales so it doesn't matter of you use the 30team or change it to 40 teams etc... or if oyu use the 100,000AB version...

totally upto you... i use the # of teams simply in case it provides a greater resolution for the player ratings. more significant digits etc.

click a cell before changin it , if not Yellow... if it is a formula of other cells, change those cells instead of breaking the formula. i think the totals all stem from teh 100k table.. so it should domino and auto-update the other values as you go.

e.g. you don't change BABIP directly.. .you change hr or something else related to that formula in that cell.. .same with BA you don't change BA you change # ofhits only.

*** sac bunts you'll have to figure out from results.. there is no Total for it visible... the value i give is a good ~guesstimate of a 30team league with 165k ab or so. can scale it from there. or just type that in from one of your 15 year sims ... that'll be a fairly good sample for Sac bunts.

or am i confusing saf flies? well you can see which i mean by what's availbe before a simulation gives results and what is not visible..