STILL happening in threes

ForeverRoyalKC · 02-16-2018, 02:56 PM

Back in September, I posted a thread about things happening in threes in a single day and didn't get much of a response in terms of how to fix it. I have kinda dealt with it since, but now some of the events are just too much for one day. Example:
Sabathia blanks Royals
Gray blanks Indians
Cole blanks Phillies
or...
Verlander no hits Mariners
Nola no hits Pirates
Harvey no hits Cubs
I mean, c'mon...three no hitters in the same day?! This happens with 5-5 days at the plate, no hitters and shutouts.

Should I use the last patch issued for '18??

NoOne · 02-16-2018, 03:26 PM

do you happen to have a 'lower' baseline era than ~4.00ish?

in the real world, there's been 252 no-hitters since 1901 (wiki right?).

i don't know if my league has the same rate or not, but i have recently looked at # of perfect games. i think i had 6 in 55years or so?

there are certain choices you make in settings that either fixes this and skews that or fixes that and skews this... you get league baseline where you want, but individual results may never hit ~RL figures, for example. inevitable trade-offs.

review any settings and choices you've made for this league that might be relevant. it may be the lesser of 2 evils, or maybe you'd rather that ~look more how you want it. personal choices in this realm aren't wrong.

also, just as re-running a simulation teaches us, what "happened" in a small sample is ambiguous at best, and in the long-term view compare to the 252 no hitters since 1901. if histrory had a rewind button and there's no such thing as fate, then we'd have different, yet similar, results. i don't have a off-the-cuff grasp of such volatility in RL... no way to really say ootp is "off" even if baselines are ~similar and individual results are also similar %'s (not necessarily actual results). human perception can't do that very well at all. that's what tools are for.

hluraven · 02-17-2018, 01:09 PM

Checking my MLB 25-year save and the accomplishments page on the league history.

Never has there been 3 3-HR efforts in a day (once 2, and twice 1 per day for 3 days)

Never has there been 2 6-hit, cycle, no hitter or 15-K games let alone 3.

Going back over the last 2 years, there has never been 3 5-hit games on the same day (2 twice), and once there was 3 shutouts on the same day (twice 2).

Certainly nothing suggesting a problem over that amount of data.

NoOne · 02-17-2018, 05:07 PM

on second thought i hear the ootp programmers really love "3"

The Game · 02-17-2018, 06:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ForeverRoyalKC

Back in September, I posted a thread about things happening in threes in a single day and didn't get much of a response in terms of how to fix it. I have kinda dealt with it since, but now some of the events are just too much for one day. Example:
Sabathia blanks Royals
Gray blanks Indians
Cole blanks Phillies
or...
Verlander no hits Mariners
Nola no hits Pirates
Harvey no hits Cubs
I mean, c'mon...three no hitters in the same day?! This happens with 5-5 days at the plate, no hitters and shutouts.

Should I use the last patch issued for '18??

I've never seen 3 No Hitters in one day. i do agree they seem to happen in 3's though but usually a weekly thing not on a daily basis
i have posts on every season for my EBL vs MLB league for Milestones & Accomplishments. Even in a season where there were 6 No Hitters none were on the same day.

Drstrangelove · 02-20-2018, 09:59 AM

I was in school eons ago and my statistics professor demonstrated this theory called triaphilia.

https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/Wh...7988416&page=1
http://www.rebelcircus.com/blog/why-...ome-in-threes/

It used to be associated with plane crashes (very popular notion that planes crashed on threes, back in the seventies.) People don't talk about it now since plane crashes are a lot rarer. But in those days, people remembered plane crashes.

In summary: people are designed to see patterns. It's how the brain works. It helps as a survival tool. Three things is the smallest number we notice as a "pattern." We don't track random events. We forget them and move on. We do notice a coincidence... for a while. Every now and then, a random third event happens that's close enough to recent events to remind us of a coincidence. Some people might call that a pattern (like plane crashes.) However, random things occur randomly. They're not related simply because they happen around the same time and certainly not related because we think they are.

Post all the no-hitters in the league. If all of them occurred on the same day, it's a coding issue. If, otoh, 35 no-hitters were on different days, and 3 happened on the same day, it's a coincidence. Of course, 3 on the same day is a surprise.

02-16-2018, 02:56 PM	#1
ForeverRoyalKC All Star Starter Join Date: May 2015 Location: Hop, skip and a jump from Pomme De Terre Lake, MO. Posts: 1,226	STILL happening in threes Back in September, I posted a thread about things happening in threes in a single day and didn't get much of a response in terms of how to fix it. I have kinda dealt with it since, but now some of the events are just too much for one day. Example: Sabathia blanks Royals Gray blanks Indians Cole blanks Phillies or... Verlander no hits Mariners Nola no hits Pirates Harvey no hits Cubs I mean, c'mon...three no hitters in the same day?! This happens with 5-5 days at the plate, no hitters and shutouts. Should I use the last patch issued for '18??

02-16-2018, 03:26 PM	#2
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	do you happen to have a 'lower' baseline era than ~4.00ish? in the real world, there's been 252 no-hitters since 1901 (wiki right?). i don't know if my league has the same rate or not, but i have recently looked at # of perfect games. i think i had 6 in 55years or so? there are certain choices you make in settings that either fixes this and skews that or fixes that and skews this... you get league baseline where you want, but individual results may never hit ~RL figures, for example. inevitable trade-offs. review any settings and choices you've made for this league that might be relevant. it may be the lesser of 2 evils, or maybe you'd rather that ~look more how you want it. personal choices in this realm aren't wrong. also, just as re-running a simulation teaches us, what "happened" in a small sample is ambiguous at best, and in the long-term view compare to the 252 no hitters since 1901. if histrory had a rewind button and there's no such thing as fate, then we'd have different, yet similar, results. i don't have a off-the-cuff grasp of such volatility in RL... no way to really say ootp is "off" even if baselines are ~similar and individual results are also similar %'s (not necessarily actual results). human perception can't do that very well at all. that's what tools are for. Last edited by NoOne; 02-16-2018 at 03:30 PM.

02-17-2018, 01:09 PM	#3
hluraven Major Leagues Join Date: Jul 2010 Location: London, England Posts: 360	Checking my MLB 25-year save and the accomplishments page on the league history. Never has there been 3 3-HR efforts in a day (once 2, and twice 1 per day for 3 days) Never has there been 2 6-hit, cycle, no hitter or 15-K games let alone 3. Going back over the last 2 years, there has never been 3 5-hit games on the same day (2 twice), and once there was 3 shutouts on the same day (twice 2). Certainly nothing suggesting a problem over that amount of data. Last edited by hluraven; 02-17-2018 at 01:15 PM.

02-20-2018, 09:59 AM	#6
Drstrangelove Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 346	I was in school eons ago and my statistics professor demonstrated this theory called triaphilia. https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/Wh...7988416&page=1 http://www.rebelcircus.com/blog/why-...ome-in-threes/ It used to be associated with plane crashes (very popular notion that planes crashed on threes, back in the seventies.) People don't talk about it now since plane crashes are a lot rarer. But in those days, people remembered plane crashes. In summary: people are designed to see patterns. It's how the brain works. It helps as a survival tool. Three things is the smallest number we notice as a "pattern." We don't track random events. We forget them and move on. We do notice a coincidence... for a while. Every now and then, a random third event happens that's close enough to recent events to remind us of a coincidence. Some people might call that a pattern (like plane crashes.) However, random things occur randomly. They're not related simply because they happen around the same time and certainly not related because we think they are. Post all the no-hitters in the league. If all of them occurred on the same day, it's a coding issue. If, otoh, 35 no-hitters were on different days, and 3 happened on the same day, it's a coincidence. Of course, 3 on the same day is a surprise. Last edited by Drstrangelove; 02-20-2018 at 10:10 AM.

02-17-2018, 05:07 PM	#4
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	on second thought i hear the ootp programmers really love "3"