Horrible Defensive Metrics (How can I fix it?)

[NovaniK]

Hoping to get some advice from you OOTP vets out there. I've been playing since OOTP 15, but have never seen this particular issue before.

My current file is a Rockies Replay in which I have taken over the expansion Rockies and doing an alternate history from the beginning of the 1992 season. We just finished the 2015 playoffs, where that awesome Seattle team won a second consecutive championship. So cool...

Now to my issue. My team is first in every offensive category (except steals) and last in every defensive category. Now typically I would say that I need better defenders but I not sure that's the case here. I've been taking special care to add defenders that have above average to elite ratings. During the 1995 season, I had two regular gold glovers (Edgar Rentaria - SS & John Mabry - 1B) and a gold glove at pitcher (Shawn Boskie - a reliever). I don't have any players lower than a 55 (play 20-80) rating at their position, and three over 70.

We finished with 74 wins and had a triple crown as a team on the offensive side of the ball. Problem is we lose games like 9-11 all the time. Looking through the pitching stats, it looks like almost every pitcher has more walks than innings pitched. That's outrageous. It's almost as if walks negatively impact the position players' defensive efficiency.

I've kind of run out of ideas. I know I do have a few guys with very low control rating, but even the guys with 60-70 control are giving up a crazy amount of walks. Does anyone have any tips for me?

[TGH-Adfabre]

Park Factors?

[NovaniK]

I know it's Coors Field but was thinking maybe 12th instead of 14th would be nice in defensive rankings.

Not sure the park is contributing to the walks though.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by NovaniK

Hoping to get some advice from you OOTP vets out there. I've been playing since OOTP 15, but have never seen this particular issue before.

My current file is a Rockies Replay in which I have taken over the expansion Rockies and doing an alternate history from the beginning of the 1992 season. We just finished the 2015 playoffs, where that awesome Seattle team won a second consecutive championship. So cool...

Now to my issue. My team is first in every offensive category (except steals) and last in every defensive category. Now typically I would say that I need better defenders but I not sure that's the case here. I've been taking special care to add defenders that have above average to elite ratings. During the 1995 season, I had two regular gold glovers (Edgar Rentaria - SS & John Mabry - 1B) and a gold glove at pitcher (Shawn Boskie - a reliever). I don't have any players lower than a 55 (play 20-80) rating at their position, and three over 70.

We finished with 74 wins and had a triple crown as a team on the offensive side of the ball. Problem is we lose games like 9-11 all the time. Looking through the pitching stats, it looks like almost every pitcher has more walks than innings pitched. That's outrageous. It's almost as if walks negatively impact the position players' defensive efficiency.

I've kind of run out of ideas. I know I do have a few guys with very low control rating, but even the guys with 60-70 control are giving up a crazy amount of walks. Does anyone have any tips for me?

I assume you have a few SP who pitched 150+ innings. Can you post a screenshot of those that have more BB than innings pitched. Something has to be seriously wrong.

[NovaniK]

Be glad to! I'll do this tonight when I get home. Thanks.

[TGH-Adfabre]

Groundball vs Flyball Pitchers?
How do your pitchers stack up with control?
Have you checked the park factors? I am not 100% that Coors will have real factors in a historical, I think it should but that is all.

[NovaniK]

Originally Posted by TGH-Adfabre

Groundball vs Flyball Pitchers?

I have tried to stack the team with groundball specialists, however there aren't many in the league period so it's been a struggle. I'd say they are mostly neutral to flyball tendancy with a few groundballers mixed in.

Originally Posted by TGH-Adfabre

How do your pitchers stack up with control?

I'm about even on guys with very low, mid-range, and very high control ratings.

Originally Posted by TGH-Adfabre

Have you checked the park factors? I am not 100% that Coors will have real factors in a historical, I think it should but that is all.

I haven't looked, but will this evening.

[NoOne]

have you auto-calced or done soemthing to maintain your LTM?

- know baseline for various, more basic defensive stats. like: fielding pct / of assists / double players etc...

if you auto-calced, no worries on that stuff. if you didn't, double check they(stats, offense/defense etc) are lined up with whatever era you are in or customizations you want.

if you know the league is roughly where it should be, you can move on to deducing if it's your park or your roster strategy or whatever. from the foundation to more specific things avoids compiling problems with adjustments that weren't needed.

as far as the park, find players that played in their prime years with your team and another team... take it as a grain of salt, though. pay more attention to the stats the require smaller sample sizes.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pri...s/sample-size/

use your own source for those #'s. they can't be much different, either way.

i like how they use BF... much smarter.

edit: my teams play in a more neutral park, but i've had some good defensive teams not look so good with certain defensive metrics.

if i recall they normally were ~.710ish defensive eff, but then a couple years with essentially the same team it was .680's and pretty average, slightly under league average. i had good defensive rated players... trust in that.

not just he overall for the position - look at the breakdown yourself... i value some thigns a bit differently than the AI. i don't think a 100% optimum one-size-fits-all solution exists... you can definitely find a better way to assess it relative to your league's setup (very large # of variations used, not just possible).

so, in a modern-like league if you have some guys that are 60+/100 defense but their range is ~50/100 give or take, they probably aren't as good as what they look like by that green defensive rating... maybe in an era of really low fielding percentage that view might change drastically. in that situation, the sure-handed guy probably looks even better than a 60+/100.

(probably more in reference to a more important defensive position, than say 1b or corner OF.. a sure handed 1b is all you need, but their ratings generally reflect that setniment well, in my experience -- eitehr way make common sense adjustments per position and leauge environment)

[NovaniK]

Originally Posted by RchW

I assume you have a few SP who pitched 150+ innings. Can you post a screenshot of those that have more BB than innings pitched. Something has to be seriously wrong.

Ok, so it looks like I was mistaken. I don't have people with more walks than innings pitched, but still an insane amount of walks. Take a look...

[TuckerDuckson]

Originally Posted by NovaniK

Ok, so it looks like I was mistaken. I don't have people with more walks than innings pitched, but still an insane amount of walks. Take a look...

Looks like Bobby Whitt was the only one who was really out of the ordinary. And 126 isn't that bad really, probs places him 150th or around there all time.

The modern era record for Walks was 204 by Nolan Ryan in 1977 so, I don't see much out of the ordinary.

[NovaniK]

My performance last year...

[NovaniK]

My pitchers, sorted by FIP...

[NovaniK]

Originally Posted by TGH-Adfabre

Groundball vs Flyball Pitchers?
How do your pitchers stack up with control?
Have you checked the park factors? I am not 100% that Coors will have real factors in a historical, I think it should but that is all.

Here are the ballpark factors. Looks like it is inflating batting stats against.

[NovaniK]

Originally Posted by TuckerDuckson

Looks like Bobby Whitt was the only one who was really out of the ordinary. And 126 isn't that bad really, probs places him 150th or around there all time.

The modern era record for Walks was 204 by Nolan Ryan in 1977 so, I don't see much out of the ordinary.

So it may just be the 215 home runs the staff gave up...

[NovaniK]

Originally Posted by NoOne

have you auto-calced or done soemthing to maintain your LTM?

- know baseline for various, more basic defensive stats. like: fielding pct / of assists / double players etc...

if you auto-calced, no worries on that stuff. if you didn't, double check they(stats, offense/defense etc) are lined up with whatever era you are in or customizations you want.

if you know the league is roughly where it should be, you can move on to deducing if it's your park or your roster strategy or whatever. from the foundation to more specific things avoids compiling problems with adjustments that weren't needed.

as far as the park, find players that played in their prime years with your team and another team... take it as a grain of salt, though. pay more attention to the stats the require smaller sample sizes.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pri...s/sample-size/

use your own source for those #'s. they can't be much different, either way.

i like how they use BF... much smarter.

edit: my teams play in a more neutral park, but i've had some good defensive teams not look so good with certain defensive metrics.

if i recall they normally were ~.710ish defensive eff, but then a couple years with essentially the same team it was .680's and pretty average, slightly under league average. i had good defensive rated players... trust in that.

not just he overall for the position - look at the breakdown yourself... i value some thigns a bit differently than the AI. i don't think a 100% optimum one-size-fits-all solution exists... you can definitely find a better way to assess it relative to your league's setup (very large # of variations used, not just possible).

so, in a modern-like league if you have some guys that are 60+/100 defense but their range is ~50/100 give or take, they probably aren't as good as what they look like by that green defensive rating... maybe in an era of really low fielding percentage that view might change drastically. in that situation, the sure-handed guy probably looks even better than a 60+/100.

(probably more in reference to a more important defensive position, than say 1b or corner OF.. a sure handed 1b is all you need, but their ratings generally reflect that setniment well, in my experience -- eitehr way make common sense adjustments per position and leauge environment)

So it is a save during the steroid era (McGwire hit 68 homeruns last year). While I am in last place in all those categories, it's not by a large margin. Perhaps I just need to be patient and let my homegrown pitching talent develop more.

The team gave up the most home runs in the league at 215. The ballpark is almost certainly contributing to this.

For the defensive ratings, I have John Mabry playing first, who is very surehanded, he won a Gold Glove (6 errors in 1307 chances, .995 fielding %). A-Rod is my weakest fielding % regular at .963 at 3B. Renteria won a Gold Glove at SS, up the middle is pretty solid.

This feels like a pitching staff issue.

[TuckerDuckson]

Originally Posted by NovaniK

So it may just be the 215 home runs the staff gave up...

That's a Coors problem them mate. Trust me, I play as the Rockies too, invest in groundballers even if they are average. They will vastly out perform elite flyball pitchers.

[pstrickert]

Not only do you play in a hitter's park when offense was off the charts there, your pitching staff is godawful. I checked out the real life stats for your starting pitchers. They weren't very good when they played elsewhere; put them in Coors Field and you're going to need a truckload of antacids.

[Hooray Saturday]

Originally Posted by NovaniK

My pitchers, sorted by FIP...

Coors '95? Looks about right!

[Izz]

Also might be worthwhile to get yourself a good defensive catcher

[Palaaemon]

Originally Posted by TuckerDuckson

The modern era record for Walks was 204 by Nolan Ryan in 1977 so, I don't see much out of the ordinary.

The modern era record is actually held by Bob Feller of the Cleveland Indians in 1938 with a total of 208. Nolan Ryan holds 2nd and 3rd place with 204 (1977) and 202 (1974) base on balls respectively, both with the California Angels. He also places many more times on the list. His wildness, especially early in his career caused many a batter to "turtle up" in fear. Just a part of the lore that was the Ryan Express.