Clutch, Luck, or Skill in OOTP?

[BKL]

In older versions of OOTP, "Clutch" was a rating and you would notice that certain players with a high clutch rating would do a little better in close/late situations.

I read a lot of baseball literature and most of the current literature seems to indicate that most players (with the exception of a very, very few), do not have clutch ability - rather it's statistically just random occurrences.

Regarding OOTP, I have often wondered the role of skill vs. luck in the game with regards to clutch situations and hot/cold streaks. Should I look at my player's career stats to see how they do in those circumstances, or is it merely just luck. Any thoughts?

I wonder do players in the game go on "real" hot streaks or is it just random luck that they have a hit in 15 straight games. This is helpful to know - is it real or luck - when making lineup decisions. If we go to the casino and look at the roulette table, you will notice that sometimes black comes up 10 time in a row - obviously that's just luck, but streaks do happen even in random situations.

Basically, what I'm wondering is if the streaks and clutch shown in the game are really the result of player skill actually programmed into the game, just random luck, or a combination of the two?

Should I pay attention to streaks and clutchiness when selecting my lineup? Thoughts?

[Déjà Bru]

Originally Posted by BKL

Basically, what I'm wondering is if the streaks and clutch shown in the game are really the result of player skill actually programmed into the game, just random luck, or a combination of the two?

Should I pay attention to streaks and clutchiness when selecting my lineup? Thoughts?

These are really good questions. Unfortunately, I am useless as certain things on a bull in that I don't have a clue to offer. I did bump the thread, however; maybe Matt will notice and offer his insight.

I suspect that the answer is that luck or randomness produce the illusion of "clutchiness" and not that it's been programmed into the game. Let's see what others think.

[MrBojangles]

I would like to add to this line of questioning - team momentum. Is it real in OOTP. I swear when my team is hitting well they ALL hit well and then they ALL slump at the same time. The durations of boom and bust are unpredictable, but the team back and forth is very predictable. Shouldn't be like this in my opinion.

[NoOne]

maybe it's part of personality now or other various additions since then.

things that were a blanket effect in the past are now more sophisticated and individualized, possibly. (not necessarily this specific topic, but in general as they add layers - inclusive of this topic)

[Padreman]

I always felt clutch should be on there it's also helpful when you're looking for bench players specifically pinch hitters

[Westheim]

Originally Posted by MrBojangles

I would like to add to this line of questioning - team momentum. Is it real in OOTP. I swear when my team is hitting well they ALL hit well and then they ALL slump at the same time. The durations of boom and bust are unpredictable, but the team back and forth is very predictable. Shouldn't be like this in my opinion.

I noticed this with pitching rather than hitting. The amount of times where you either have all five starters spin a fine one OR all five hitting the dumpster early seems extraordinarily high.

Of course nobody's ever hitting on the Raccoons, so ...

[RchW]

Originally Posted by Padreman

I always felt clutch should be on there it's also helpful when you're looking for bench players specifically pinch hitters

I'd be very wary of adding something that has not been quantified. Assessing clutch is consistently difficult and is often circumstantial. Most studies show that career performance is a better predictor of success in clutch situations than anything else. I'm puzzled that you think "clutch" would be a factor in obtaining bench players. I'd think that defense, multiple positions and/or a specific skill like contact or eye or base running would be far more important. Would you not want your starting players up in clutch situation vs a player not good enough to start?

Stats show that pinch hitters as a whole consistently underperform IRL. Individuals such as Matt Stairs may show apparent clutch stats but they are suspect due to small sample size and circumstance such as getting 80% of PA with men on base.

[David Watts]

My problem with clutch( I for one will always believe there are guys that thrive and guys that shrivel) is, how do you put it in a game without creating a video game like effect? I can't stand when things have a forced or orchestrated feel to them and OOTP has done a great job over the years avoiding this.

[zukes]

Originally Posted by MrBojangles

I would like to add to this line of questioning - team momentum. Is it real in OOTP. I swear when my team is hitting well they ALL hit well and then they ALL slump at the same time. The durations of boom and bust are unpredictable, but the team back and forth is very predictable. Shouldn't be like this in my opinion.

I experience this as well. My team was on fire all year and well up on the entire league in hitting and record, plus solid pitching. We clinched a playoff spot early and my team seemed to put it into cruise control for the last 40 games or so, playing around .500 the rest of the way and the bats cooling WAY off, the pitching was no worse than it had been all year.

We finished as the top seed in the league still and are playing the #16 seed. (Set up like the NHL playoffs but seeds are 1-16) I just finished game three of the best of 7 last night and in the first 16 innings of the series we had 5 hits and 2 runs. Luckily in the bottom of the 8th of the 2nd game at home, we got a 3 run HR and won a squeaker 3-2 before waking up finally in game 3 with a blow out win on the road.

Personally, I like it and that it gives the appearance of complacency for my team and the difficulty of cranking it back up. My team is fairly veteran laden so that could have something to do with it.

The league is in its 6th year, we have made the playoffs each year, won the title the 3rd and 4th year. We had our best regular season last year but lost in the 2nd round in an upset last year. This year we were on pace to shatter last year's record, but as I said, faltered down the stretch.

I'm interested to see what happens this year in the playoffs as I feel that we are already on borrowed time and a rebuild is coming, but I truly hope that team wide slumps are in the game.

I also wonder the value of a good hitting or pitching coach when something like this happens. If you fire the current guy and get a better one, will it help?

[TwinsGuy11]

Originally Posted by David Watts

My problem with clutch( I for one will always believe there are guys that thrive and guys that shrivel) is, how do you put it in a game without creating a video game like effect? I can't stand when things have a forced or orchestrated feel to them and OOTP has done a great job over the years avoiding this.

NBA 2k forums rage about this topic.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by David Watts

My problem with clutch( I for one will always believe there are guys that thrive and guys that shrivel) is, how do you put it in a game without creating a video game like effect? I can't stand when things have a forced or orchestrated feel to them and OOTP has done a great job over the years avoiding this.

Clutch is more perception than reality. That perception is heavily weighted in favor of batters because a clutch strikeout by a pitcher doesn't put numbers on the board. The definition (leverage) is skewed because relief pitchers accumulate a disproportionate amount of high leverage situations in which their failures are magnified.

For example in a playoff game Player A hits 3 HR in his first 3 PA then strikes out in the 7th and 9th with RISP in a loss. Player B K's twice and GIDP's in 3PA but hits a walk off or a go ahead HR in the 9th to win the game.

Player B looks clutch (and may be) because of circumstance and leverage (as discussed) but Player A did more to help win and was a victim of an equally clutch performance by the opposing pitcher(s) and lack of performance by his team.

Look at FanGraphs. Often there is little correlation between season performance and clutch.

[NoOne]

"clutch" is just being fooled by randomness. at least anything that is a blanket effect and attributed to clutch.. and long-term view.

for an individual at a specific moment in time: if you get really nervous and that affects your ability to play a game (or anything in general), your body actually functions less than normal.

So, i don't believe a person is "more" clutch than the next, but a confident, strong-willed person that is more resilient to becoming nervous and the like is less likely to experience those issues in a "bigger" moment.

I also believe these types of jitters are short-term and sometimes nonexistent. maybe first game in the big leagues and maybe first playoff game type context.

Quote:
"If we go to the casino and look at the roulette table, you will notice that sometimes black comes up 10 time in a row - obviously that's just luck, but streaks do happen even in random situations."

that highlights the problem with perception... you say it's luck then say maybe it's not the very next breath (giving credence to the idea that it happened with purpose and not due to randomness). it's luck... nothing else. it's not a hot streak that red or black comes up.. it's the same probability each and every time. (in baseball that concept still applies, but the probability is a culmination of the factors in that moment of time- but any time those exact same factors repeat it is the exact same probability, just like a coin flip or an AB, AB are just more complicated compared to roulette as far as knowing the probability of all possible results)

can confidence and personality effect this? maybe, but it affects the probability of results when they step into the box, it does not cause anything to happen beside that change in likelihood. no different than something physical affecting your swing.

e.g. you step up and some dust flies in your eye the moment the ball is pitched - that's not going to cause you to miss the ball, but it will make it less likely to happen. if a feeling or thought has a physiological response, it can do the same thing.... it just has to be tangible and rooted in reality.

so, if confidence or nerves changes your approach to the game, it is having an effect... (mental approach from this one type of aspect - like choosing to swing out of your shoes because the pitcher embarassed you the last time type concept and forego your normal approach).

imo, this stuff is learned and easily avoided. it's only a problem for very green players and the very stupid.

[BKL]

What about teams going on a "hot streak" just before the playoffs? I often hear in some many sports analysis that "it's so important to be "hot" at the right time" or "they got on a hot streak during the playoffs."

Again - luck that the streak happened, or something "real" actually to the steak.

Personally, I think it's a little bit of both, with most of it attributed to statistical luck. Maybe, for instance, 80% is luck but another 20% is due to the fact that when a team/player starts to do well it becomes self fulfilling because they may be more relaxed and then playing without mental pressure.

[DreamTeams]

This subject has come up several times in the past. I'm always fascinated by the various takes and arguments for and against clutchiness. However, unless my memory fails me (and that's totally possible), seem to recall Markus responding, several versions back, that there is no hidden clutch rating in OOTP because it's not something that can be quantified.

Still, I love the perception that some of the players in my solo league demonstrate clutchiness. It passes my eyeball test even if random in nature. So, I'd say the game imitates real life quite well.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by DreamTeams

This subject has come up several times in the past. I'm always fascinated by the various takes and arguments for and against clutchiness. However, unless my memory fails me (and that's totally possible), seem to recall Markus responding, several versions back, that there is no hidden clutch rating in OOTP because it's not something that can be quantified.

Still, I love the perception that some of the players in my solo league demonstrate clutchiness. It passes my eyeball test even if random in nature. So, I'd say the game imitates real life quite well.

This is the key point. Perception.

[NoOne]

Originally Posted by BKL

What about teams going on a "hot streak" just before the playoffs? I often hear in some many sports analysis that "it's so important to be "hot" at the right time" or "they got on a hot streak during the playoffs."

Again - luck that the streak happened, or something "real" actually to the steak.

Personally, I think it's a little bit of both, with most of it attributed to statistical luck. Maybe, for instance, 80% is luck but another 20% is due to the fact that when a team/player starts to do well it becomes self fulfilling because they may be more relaxed and then playing without mental pressure.

well, they usually aren't bad teams doing it. so there's some correlation to be found.

there's a basic test you can do... it involves a RNG and something you understand - since we are talking about baseball use a .600 win rate (hate saying percent, it's not a win pct, baseball is dumb sometimes).

anyway, run one of those a few times where 60% is success, 40 is failue (1-5 -- 1-3success vs 4-5fail)... run it with 162 results and look for "streaks".... you'll find many and in similar proportion to what you see in real life for a similar team, if we ran it enough times. that's how you know it's random

real life is more complicated - injuries, problem children (divas), divorce, newborn babies, you name it these things have an effect on the success/fail probability of numerous things that go into a game played on that day, but it's still the same logic, whether a flyball, 1ab, 162g or 100years.