HORRIBLE stats after trading for MR

Baseballman2K5 · 08-16-2014, 11:32 PM

I traded for Jonny Venters on July 31 2016 to try and improve my bullpen....my god has he been horrible or what (I'm Chicago)

yougo1000 · 08-17-2014, 12:30 AM

His BABIP suggests he has been really unlucky. Give him some time.

Tram2Whitaker · 08-17-2014, 01:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by yougo1000

His BABIP suggests he has been really unlucky. Give him some time.

Lends credence to the idea that the Cubs are truly cursed.

MaddiLynn · 08-17-2014, 01:31 AM

Are you sure this isn't the Tigers?

Everyone we get in our bullpen is instantly terrible.

Westheim · 08-17-2014, 02:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by yougo1000

His BABIP suggests he has been really unlucky. Give him some time.

His BB/9 suggests that the OP should trade him for a box of cookies as long as he holds any value...

rworth88 · 08-17-2014, 02:57 AM

Only 9 innings, that's a bad 2 starts for a starter, I'd wait a bit but that's just me.

fsclb66 · 08-17-2014, 05:04 AM

Just some bad luck, his numbers in atlanta before the trade are very consistent with 2014 and 2015 so I'd be surprised if he doesnt turn it around for you

battists · 08-17-2014, 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by yougo1000

His BABIP suggests he has been really unlucky. Give him some time.

Can you explain this statement to someone who is relatively stats-impaired?

OakDragon · 08-17-2014, 04:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by yougo1000

His BABIP suggests he has been really unlucky. Give him some time.

Interesting. I was thinking the opposite. Given his other stats before the trade, the 2.79 ERA looks strangely low to me. I would not have signed him, personally.

yougo1000 · 08-18-2014, 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by battists

Can you explain this statement to someone who is relatively stats-impaired?

Sure, the league BABIP is always .300 so if a hitter has a BABIP around .320+ they are usually considered to be getting lucky and it will typically come down and vice versa for BABIPs below .280,

It is essentially the same for pitchers except you flip them around. A .320+ BABIP shows the pitcher is under-performing and a below .280 BABIP suggests they have been lucky.

Of course there is the occasional exception to this such as Chris Johnson. He had an incredible .394 BABIP in 2013 and so far in 2014 he has a .360 BABIP.

battists · 08-18-2014, 10:53 AM

Awesome, thanks! Sorry for the thread jack, OP!

jpeters1734 · 08-18-2014, 10:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by battists

Can you explain this statement to someone who is relatively stats-impaired?

Additional info:

BABIP | FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library

BIG17EASY · 08-18-2014, 11:20 AM

Defense can also play a role in how high BABIP is, although not enough to explain the drastic number Venters has. So I'd compare your defense to Atlanta's to see if there's a significant difference that would explain at least a little bit of his struggles.

Also, and this is just my "spidey sense" at work here, but the drop in K/9 and rise in BB/9 makes me wonder if he's injured. I'd go into commish mode and then into the editor to see if he may have an unresolved day-to-day injury. This happens on very rare occasions and will effect a player's performance. Normally it's a significant injury that causes a player to not play for extended periods despite not being listed as injured. But if it's a day-to-day injury that's not showing properly, it could cause his performance to drop drastically.

snepp · 08-19-2014, 12:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by yougo1000

Sure, the league BABIP is always .300 so if a hitter has a BABIP around .320+ they are usually considered to be getting lucky and it will typically come down and vice versa for BABIPs below .280,

Hitters tend to establish an individual baseline for BABIP, they typically shouldn't be compared against the league average.

lejdot · 08-19-2014, 10:18 AM

Just to confirm, the lower the BABIP the better?

Second, ill rest pitchers if they are giving me grief unless they are my ace. For the bullpen I change to use less often. Its helped get some pitchers some innings but not too much. Maybe for this guy make him a lefty specialist for a week or two unless he is key for the bullpen.

battists · 08-19-2014, 11:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lejdot

Just to confirm, the lower the BABIP the better?

For pitchers, a BABIP higher than .300 is indicative that bad luck or defense are negatively impacting his performance, and that you can expect the BABIP to move back towards .300. Note that I said "indicative". No guarantees!

However, especially for pitchers a large sample size is important. Fangraphs suggests you really need 2,000 balls in play from a pitcher before you can get a true sense.

I read the article on fan graphs about BABIP; it really helped!

BIG17EASY · 08-19-2014, 11:33 AM

If you want a very thorough explanation of what BABIP is and how to use it as an evaluation tool, read the link in jpeters1734's post a few posts above this one.

lejdot · 08-19-2014, 01:37 PM

Great link

24Rocks · 08-19-2014, 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OakDragon

Interesting. I was thinking the opposite. Given his other stats before the trade, the 2.79 ERA looks strangely low to me. I would not have signed him, personally.

I agree with OakDragon only played 30 game last 3 years nothing over 40 games WHIP around 1.30 in ALT now moving to a more hitter park he has been unlucky in 3 HR last 3 years for ALT and 3 HR given up for you relivers with low control are hit or miss per outing or lucky.

BIG17EASY · 08-19-2014, 02:28 PM

Those are good points. And I'm also looking at some of his ratings and his stamina is crazy low, yet he threw 24 and 30 pitches in the two outings you can see in the screenshot. I'd also check his righty-lefty splits to see if he's getting torched by right-handed hitters.

If he were on my team, I'd limit him to 15 or 20 pitches and set him for a quick hook in the player strategy screen and basically make him a lefty specialist. He's only making $1.1M, so he wouldn't be overpaid for that type of role by any means.

08-16-2014, 11:32 PM	#1
Baseballman2K5 All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Phoenix Posts: 510	HORRIBLE stats after trading for MR I traded for Jonny Venters on July 31 2016 to try and improve my bullpen....my god has he been horrible or what (I'm Chicago) Attached Images

08-17-2014, 12:30 AM	#2
yougo1000 All Star Reserve Join Date: Sep 2011 Location: Illinois Posts: 652	His BABIP suggests he has been really unlucky. Give him some time. __________________ Teams I like: Cubs Bears Bulls Hawks and Kansas JayHawks

08-18-2014, 10:53 AM	#11
battists Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 18,506	Awesome, thanks! Sorry for the thread jack, OP! __________________ Come check out my dynasty report, Funky Times!

08-18-2014, 11:20 AM	#13
BIG17EASY Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 3,291	Defense can also play a role in how high BABIP is, although not enough to explain the drastic number Venters has. So I'd compare your defense to Atlanta's to see if there's a significant difference that would explain at least a little bit of his struggles. Also, and this is just my "spidey sense" at work here, but the drop in K/9 and rise in BB/9 makes me wonder if he's injured. I'd go into commish mode and then into the editor to see if he may have an unresolved day-to-day injury. This happens on very rare occasions and will effect a player's performance. Normally it's a significant injury that causes a player to not play for extended periods despite not being listed as injured. But if it's a day-to-day injury that's not showing properly, it could cause his performance to drop drastically. Last edited by BIG17EASY; 08-18-2014 at 11:23 AM.

08-17-2014, 01:31 AM	#4
MaddiLynn Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Aug 2014 Location: Oregon/Michigan Posts: 24	Are you sure this isn't the Tigers? Everyone we get in our bullpen is instantly terrible.

08-17-2014, 02:57 AM	#6
rworth88 Minors (Double A) Join Date: Sep 2008 Location: Calgary, AB Posts: 175	Only 9 innings, that's a bad 2 starts for a starter, I'd wait a bit but that's just me.

08-17-2014, 05:04 AM	#7
fsclb66 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 92	Just some bad luck, his numbers in atlanta before the trade are very consistent with 2014 and 2015 so I'd be surprised if he doesnt turn it around for you

08-19-2014, 10:18 AM	#15
lejdot Minors (Single A) Join Date: Aug 2014 Posts: 84	Just to confirm, the lower the BABIP the better? Second, ill rest pitchers if they are giving me grief unless they are my ace. For the bullpen I change to use less often. Its helped get some pitchers some innings but not too much. Maybe for this guy make him a lefty specialist for a week or two unless he is key for the bullpen.

08-19-2014, 11:33 AM	#17
BIG17EASY Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 3,291	If you want a very thorough explanation of what BABIP is and how to use it as an evaluation tool, read the link in jpeters1734's post a few posts above this one.

08-19-2014, 01:37 PM	#18
lejdot Minors (Single A) Join Date: Aug 2014 Posts: 84	Great link

08-19-2014, 02:28 PM	#20
BIG17EASY Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 3,291	Those are good points. And I'm also looking at some of his ratings and his stamina is crazy low, yet he threw 24 and 30 pitches in the two outings you can see in the screenshot. I'd also check his righty-lefty splits to see if he's getting torched by right-handed hitters. If he were on my team, I'd limit him to 15 or 20 pitches and set him for a quick hook in the player strategy screen and basically make him a lefty specialist. He's only making $1.1M, so he wouldn't be overpaid for that type of role by any means.