Arbitration question

[Thetallone]

I've noticed it's hardly worth signing players to long-term contracts during their arbitration period. What have other people found?

I know the Blue Jays try to avoid arbitration with their players (not sure about now, but at least in the past) by getting them to sign a contract through their arbitration years, plus one or two into their free agent years. The contract will be for a higher value than the likely arbitration amount, but lower than what they'd likely get as free agents. I like the theory of this strategy, but have never come across a player in OOTP who would agree to it.

It would be nice to able to do this in OOTP.

[le receveur]

most of my players are signed through arbitration years. i even have a few guys i have signed pre-arbitration to get a break after, and level the cost through years, and have flexibility in other signing.

getting team option is getting harder, so i have now usually gone with vesting options with reasonable objectives (400PA, 160 IP, 25 GF) but of course i can control this when we get there.

[JMDurron]

Originally Posted by Thetallone

I've noticed it's hardly worth signing players to long-term contracts during their arbitration period. What have other people found?

I know the Blue Jays try to avoid arbitration with their players (not sure about now, but at least in the past) by getting them to sign a contract through their arbitration years, plus one or two into their free agent years. The contract will be for a higher value than the likely arbitration amount, but lower than what they'd likely get as free agents. I like the theory of this strategy, but have never come across a player in OOTP who would agree to it.

It would be nice to able to do this in OOTP.

I do this all the time, I'm not sure what the problem is in your case. Just before their first arbitration hearing, I try to sign the player through their age 30 season, or their final arb season, whichever comes later. Aside from some young players who will only agree to 4-year deals, I've never had a problem doing so. Several players have agreed to sign deals of constant AAV that was below the initial arb amount (team's default offer on the arb screen), although that's not common. I wait until the period between the end of the season and their first arbitration hearing to begin negotiations.

[le receveur]

just to add on JMDurron's timing, i have also found that what players will agree during the year depends on how they are currently performing, so you get a better deal during a slump. i do a lot of in year signing for borderline Super 2 players.

note. i have had little success signing 5 star superstars prospect in year 1 (the Matt Moore type of contracts). they often come back, asking for $5M+ for one year, and i usually go, enjoy minimum salary, and remember to thank your union....

[r0nster]

I do one year contract then after that I go for long term if they good enough to keep cost down in future seasons .... Saved my neck a few times so I can get a good free agent on occasion

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by le receveur

note. i have had little success signing 5 star superstars prospect in year 1 (the Matt Moore type of contracts). they often come back, asking for $5M+ for one year, and i usually go, enjoy minimum salary, and remember to thank your union....

Why would you offer an extension to a guy making the league minimum? That means he's not eligible for arbitration yet. That's just throwing money away.

[le receveur]

Originally Posted by BIG17EASY

Why would you offer an extension to a guy making the league minimum? That means he's not eligible for arbitration yet. That's just throwing money away.

So you think the rays are throwing money away?

[le receveur]

Originally Posted by BIG17EASY

Why would you offer an extension to a guy making the league minimum? That means he's not eligible for arbitration yet. That's just throwing money away.

Because by waiting after 2 seasons of 4 oWAR results you are looking at way higher salary for year 4 and after. I now have perennial allstars locked in for 3 years at half what they would make on arbitration hearing for a cost of about 3-4 millions in year 2 and 3.

[rpriske]

Originally Posted by BIG17EASY

Why would you offer an extension to a guy making the league minimum? That means he's not eligible for arbitration yet. That's just throwing money away.

That woudl be true if you were signing him to a short cotract, but what they are talking about is signing him to a longer contract that covers his arbitration time (and maybe more.)

What you are doing is taking on the risk of the player's development. That risk is normally carried by the player through those early years. With a long-term deal, if he develops well, you have a bargain. If he doesn't, you are overpaying.

I am generally not a fan, but there are exceptions.

[le receveur]

Originally Posted by rpriske

That woudl be true if you were signing him to a short cotract, but what they are talking about is signing him to a longer contract that covers his arbitration time (and maybe more.)

What you are doing is taking on the risk of the player's development. That risk is normally carried by the player through those early years. With a long-term deal, if he develops well, you have a bargain. If he doesn't, you are overpaying.

I am generally not a fan, but there are exceptions.

as i operate with a low budget owner (even reducing budget increase he gives me), this is the only way i have been able to function. if i wait at arbitration, i lose my stars by year 5, because i can't afford $10M+ . yes i have carried flops at $3M per year on my rosters, or even in AAA but the risk/rewards is usually there

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by rpriske

That woudl be true if you were signing him to a short cotract, but what they are talking about is signing him to a longer contract that covers his arbitration time (and maybe more.)

What you are doing is taking on the risk of the player's development. That risk is normally carried by the player through those early years. With a long-term deal, if he develops well, you have a bargain. If he doesn't, you are overpaying.

I am generally not a fan, but there are exceptions.

I understand all that. I just don't think it's smart. The Rays got Moore to sign a good deal because the first three years are only $1M each, which is still crazy cheap, and the last three years are team option years with very cheap buyouts.

I guess I should have been more detailed in my post. My point is that you'd never get an OOTP player with Moore's potential to do that kind of deal. If someone can get an OOTP player to sign that kind of contract as a 5-star prospect, then I want to know the financial settings they're using.

(Also, mark my words, Moore will fire his agent at some point if he stays healthy and continues to pitch well.)

[le receveur]

Originally Posted by BIG17EASY

I understand all that. I just don't think it's smart. The Rays got Moore to sign a good deal because the first three years are only $1M each, which is still crazy cheap, and the last three years are team option years with very cheap buyouts.

I guess I should have been more detailed in my post. My point is that you'd never get an OOTP player with Moore's potential to do that kind of deal. If someone can get an OOTP player to sign that kind of contract as a 5-star prospect, then I want to know the financial settings they're using.

well i guess i am not smart .

i actually have done it effectively, but probably because my 5 star players are not the same as OSA.

i currently have my number 2 starter, with an ERA+ of 130 for the last 2 years locked in at $3-4M up to FA, and $5M vesting options for following 2 years.

my 2 times gold glove SS, is signed at $2M per year for 4 more years, and his arbitration estimate reads $3M currently.

also major prospects with Low Greed, i have been able to lock.

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by le receveur

well i guess i am not smart .

i actually have done it effectively, but probably because my 5 star players are not the same as OSA.

i currently have my number 2 starter, with an ERA+ of 130 for the last 2 years locked in at $3-4M up to FA, and $5M vesting options for following 2 years.

my 2 times gold glove SS, is signed at $2M per year for 4 more years, and his arbitration estimate reads $3M currently.

also major prospects with Low Greed, i have been able to lock.

I didn't say you weren't smart. Please don't twist my words into a perceived insult. I apologize if it was taken that way.

Those look like very good deals to me. What are the top players in your league making? Are they making $20M-plus, like in real life? And what's your total team payroll?

[RchW]

I find some players do and some players don't which seems realistic in that it's not the same for every player. I get players who will only sign 1-year deals during arb and those that will go multi-year. Some want big $$ to sign arbitration year contracts others seem willing to give up $ for years. I think team success/player attributes have an effect on the latter. I use this nice mix as a tie breaker when working out my preferred trade chips.

Usually the players that won't go for a multi-year deal tip their hand by asking for $4-$6M more than the arbitration estimate. They can be bargained down but typically insist on 1-year deals. Often you just have to let arbitration run its course or trade them. If you find a guy who asks for similar money even +$1-$2M over the arbitration estimate, you can offer a back loaded deal that may be lower than the pending arbitration amount in the first 1-2 years. The key point is you have to project his future arbitration number through the rest of the contract. For example a player with a pending $4.5M arb may sign for $4-$5-$7-$9M or $4-$6-$7-$8M. Team options do work but not as well as real life.

There's obviously a risk involved with multi-year deals to young players. You need to be objective about certain skills (especially defense) that could leave you stuck with an un-tradeable asset.

If the player won't take less than the arbitration estimate but seems worth the money just flatten out the $ over the remaining years. I can't recall a player ever taking less in a succeeding year if the contract covers his arbitration.

[le receveur]

Originally Posted by BIG17EASY

I didn't say you weren't smart. Please don't twist my words into a perceived insult. I apologize if it was taken that way.

Those look like very good deals to me. What are the top players in your league making? Are they making $20M-plus, like in real life? And what's your total team payroll?

(i knew it wasn't an insult, this is why i put the emoticon. )

yeah, top salaries in the $17-20M. i run my payroll in the $70-80M range. running about 24th (2013 quickstart, no inflation except minimum wage now up to $600,000- union negotiated :-) ).
i do acknowledge it doesn't work all the time, and most time the guys get back don't want to lock early, here is my one year demand. but there is certain type who will, and if i can lock a solid player i will. for example the no.2 starter was just turned from reliever, but the results were encouraging, and he was worth the risk, and so far so good....

most other successful one are low greed guy, or guys in a slump.

but there is risk, my CF who i locked, is now regularly on the DL, and with OPS+ of 74. i might actually have to eat his last year salary. he still has great D (10/10 at all OF position) so he is my 4th OF now.

[JMDurron]

Originally Posted by RchW

I find some players do and some players don't which seems realistic in that it's not the same for every player. I get players who will only sign 1-year deals during arb and those that will go multi-year. Some want big $$ to sign arbitration year contracts others seem willing to give up $ for years. I think team success/player attributes have an effect on the latter. I use this nice mix as a tie breaker when working out my preferred trade chips.

Usually the players that won't go for a multi-year deal tip their hand by asking for $4-$6M more than the arbitration estimate. They can be bargained down but typically insist on 1-year deals. Often you just have to let arbitration run its course or trade them. If you find a guy who asks for similar money even +$1-$2M over the arbitration estimate, you can offer a back loaded deal that may be lower than the pending arbitration amount in the first 1-2 years. The key point is you have to project his future arbitration number through the rest of the contract. For example a player with a pending $4.5M arb may sign for $4-$5-$7-$9M or $4-$6-$7-$8M. Team options do work but not as well as real life.

There's obviously a risk involved with multi-year deals to young players. You need to be objective about certain skills (especially defense) that could leave you stuck with an un-tradeable asset.

If the player won't take less than the arbitration estimate but seems worth the money just flatten out the $ over the remaining years. I can't recall a player ever taking less in a succeeding year if the contract covers his arbitration.

I've never done the bolded. I just give a flat rate salary for the number of years I target, or 4 years, whichever the player will agree to. I value steady salary predictability, and I've found that it makes it easier to move a declining player when you inevitably bet on the wrong horse.

[ThePretender]

You can sign players during their arb years for significantly cheaper than they would have cost had you gone year to year. It's all about timing. You can get them to sign 4-5 year deals for just a few million, even star or superstar calibre players.

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by le receveur

(i knew it wasn't an insult, this is why i put the emoticon. )

yeah, top salaries in the $17-20M. i run my payroll in the $70-80M range. running about 24th (2013 quickstart, no inflation except minimum wage now up to $600,000- union negotiated :-) ).
i do acknowledge it doesn't work all the time, and most time the guys get back don't want to lock early, here is my one year demand. but there is certain type who will, and if i can lock a solid player i will. for example the no.2 starter was just turned from reliever, but the results were encouraging, and he was worth the risk, and so far so good....

most other successful one are low greed guy, or guys in a slump.

but there is risk, my CF who i locked, is now regularly on the DL, and with OPS+ of 74. i might actually have to eat his last year salary. he still has great D (10/10 at all OF position) so he is my 4th OF now.

Then I tip my hat to you because it looks like the strategy works for you a lot of the time. I play with scouting accuracy low, so I'm always wary of guys with high potential ratings who have a good rookie year.

[le receveur]

Originally Posted by BIG17EASY

Then I tip my hat to you because it looks like the strategy works for you a lot of the time. I play with scouting accuracy low, so I'm always wary of guys with high potential ratings who have a good rookie year.

i play low accuracy also, however the one thing i should specify is i am really slow at promoting guys. so with feeder stats, and minors most of my guys have at least 5-7 stat seasons by the time they make the majors.