The 2007 Phillies or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Became the Team to Beat

[Hurkman]

The 2007 Major League Baseball season was one of the wildest in recent memory. Let's just run down a few of the things that happened that year.

-Barry Bonds broke Hank Aaron's career home run record. He would finish the year with 762 home runs, and would never play another game with the Giants or any other team.

-Speaking of "enhanced" players, Sammy Sosa hit his 600th career home run in 2007, while Alex Rodriguez, Frank Thomas and Jim Thome all reached the 500 home run mark.

-Craig Biggio recorded his 3,000th hit and was promptly thrown out at second trying to stretch it into a double.

-Tom Glavine won his 300th game, and Roger Clemens picked up win number 350.

-In the world of no-hitters, Mark Buehrle, Justin Verlander and Clay Bucholtz all pitched no-hit games, with Buchholtz's coming in his second career start.

-The Chicago Cubs became the first American sports team to win 10,000 games.

-In terms of playoff teams, only the New York Yankees had the same success that their 2006 team had, as the other seven playoff teams failed to reach the postseason.

-The Colorado Rockies made the playoffs for just the second time in team history, winning a 13 inning winner take all game against the San Diego Padres to earn the National League Wild Card. Their momentum would carry them to the World Series.

-The Boston Red Sox would once again come back from the edge of elimination in the ALCS. Facing a 3-1 series deficit to the Cleveland Indians, the Red Sox would win the next three games and then sweep the Rockies to earn their second World Series title in four years.

And, most importantly for this story:

-The Philadelphia Phillies, down seven games in the National League East to the New York Mets with 17 games to play, would stage the biggest divisional comeback in baseball history, winning the division with a 6-1 win over the Washington Nationals on the final day of the regular season. The win fulfilled Jimmy Rollins' claim that the Phillies were the "team to beat," in the National League East, and ensured that he would win the NL MVP for the 2007 season.

As a Phillies fan, that 2007 season was, and still is, one of my all time favorite seasons of any Philadelphia sports team. The Phillies had come so close to making the playoffs for years before 2007, and they finally broke through. Of course, they would get swept by the Rockies in the NLDS, but it planted the seeds for their World Series win in 2008. That 2007 Phillies team had more heart and guts than I've seen from almost any other team that I've ever cheered for.

That's what brings me to this dynasty. I am going to run the Phillies from the beginning of that 2007 season and see what happens. In reality, 2007 began a run of five straight National League East crowns and two trips to the World Series for the Phillies. Will it do the same in my reality? I don't know about you, but I sure hope so.

Up next: A look at the pitching staff.

[NYY #23]

I moved here in mid-2007 and thought that the Phillies were a fun team to watch. I was pretty disappointed when they got swept by the Rockies. Good luck and hopefully your 2007 season turns out better.

[Hurkman]

Looking at the pitching staff for the Phillies, it's amazing that this team was able to win the National League East in 2007. Here's a look at what they have coming into the year.

Staring Pitchers

Brett Myers



One of the most consistent pitchers the Phillies have had in the 2000s, Myers came up with the Phils in 2002 and has been with the team ever since. He's emerged as one of the best pitchers on the team, and is my Opening Day starter this year. His 12-7 record last year was just alright, and while he tends to give up a lot of fly balls, he has four good pitches. Hopefully, he can put together a good year and not end up in the bullpen, like he did in real life.

Ratings (Stuff/Movement/Control): 14/10/12-Current, 14/11/12-Potential

Cole Hamels



People know him now as the ace of the Phillies, but back in 2007, Hamels was just going into his second year with Philadelphia. He showed signs of very good potential in 2006, going 9-8 in 23 starts while striking out 145 batters. This season should be another big step forward for Cole, who is rated as one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball. There's nowhere to go but up for this kid.

Ratings (Stuff/Movement/Control): 15/12/12-Current, 19/16/16-Potential

Jamie Moyer



The old man of the staff and of baseball, Moyer has already gone on record saying that the 2007 season will be his last. That hurts more than you would think, since in real life, Moyer had another solid season left in him for the 2008 campaign. Oh well. Jamie also only spent a part of last season with the Phillies, coming over in August in a trade with the Mariners. Jamie was a big part of the Seattle pitching staff for almost a decade, and maybe in his last season he can be a part of a World Series winning team for the first time.

Ratings (Stuff/Movement/Control): 8/9/15-Current, 9/11/15-Potential

Adam Eaton



The textbook definition of "mediocre," Adam Eaton symbolizes almost everything that was wrong with Philadelphia baseball before they went on this past run. He was never a great pitcher, but the Phillies went out after the 2006 season and made him one of their big free agent signings. Eaton signed a three year deal worth over $7 million a season, leaving me with a contract that is horribly overpaying a player while making him just about untradable. I'll stick him at the end of the rotation and see if he can go 10-10 in here like he did in 2007 in real life. If he does, I'd like to see him do it without an ERA over 6.00.

Ratings (Stuff/Movement/Control): 11/10/11-Current, 11/12/11-Potential

Fabio Castro



I'm not sure how it happened, but Fabio Castro not only imported well, but did well enough in Spring Training for me to give him the fifth starter job, at least for the time being. I don't know much about this guy, and for good reason. He pitched in 10 games for the Phillies in 2007, starting once and only throwing 12.1 innings all year. He never pitched in the majors again. I'm holding out hope that he can be a little better in here, but I'm not optimistic.

Ratings (Stuff/Movement/Control): 10/17/9-Current, 10/17/9-Potential

Middle Relief

Brian Sanches



Aside from being a bad haircut away from looking like the bad guy in No Country for Old Men, there's nothing much that scares me about Brian Sanches. Think Adam Eaton, but as a long relief pitcher. When I need some innings eaten up, and I know it will happen, this is the guy that I'm calling on. He pitched just a little more than Fabio Castro did in real life for the Phillies, but I'm not expecting much. There's not much to expect, honestly.

Ratings (Stuff/Movement/Control): 10/11/10-Current, 11/12/10-Potential

Chris Key



Chris Key does one thing, and only one thing well, according to scouting reports. He can strike people out. Other than that, he's not the best pitcher in the world, but he's on my 40 man roster, and there's not much else that's major league ready in Triple A, so here he is. In real life, Key never pitched in the major leagues, and only made it as high as the Reading Phillies in Philadelphia's organization, so this should be a fun experiment. Man, my middle relief is not good.

Ratings (Stuff/Movement/Control): 16/9/8-Current, 17/9/8-Potential

Jim Crowell



Who the heck is this guy? Honestly, I had no idea who Jim Crowell even was until I looked him up for this game. Apparently, the Phillies had worse middle relief than I remember back in 2007, because Crowell is the third straight average to below-average middle reliever that I've profiled. He's not going to strike many people out, and as a junk ball pitcher, he needs his control to be good and a little extra movement on his pitches to be effective, and I don't see that happening every time he gets to the mound.

Ratings (Stuff/Movement/Control): 6/12/14-Current, 7/13/15-Potential

Ryan Madson



This happy guy is Ryan Madson, who I'm guessing is this happy because I'm giving him another shot with the Phillies, rather than sending him to Ottawa with the rest of the Triple A players. Madson is young, and has a little bit of ability, but he's nowhere near the proven pitcher that he would become in 2008, and the way that he looks in this, I'm not sure he's ever going to get there. Trying him out as a starter in 2006 may have been the worst idea possible for his early career. I won't make that same mistake again. It's bullpen, and bullpen only for Madson.

Ratings (Stuff/Movement/Control): 10/11/11-Current, 11/12/13-Potential

Setup Men

Geoff Geary



I actually have some fond memories of Geoff Geary. Before he was part of the Brad Lidge deal, he was actually a somewhat decent pitcher, and an ok setup man. In 2006, he pitched in 81 games with the Phillies, winning seven of them and establishing himself as a valuable part of this bullpen. As long as I can get games through the middle relief minefield, Geary is going to see a lot of action in the seventh and eighth innings.

Ratings (Stuff/Movement/Control): 8/17/16-Current, 9/17/16-Potential

Clay Condrey



Despite being a career minor leaguer before 2006, Condrey actually pitched well for the Phillies last year, and compared to the majority of my bullpen, he's not half bad. He doesn't have the best velocity on his pitches, but he can get out of jams, and he'll work well as my number two setup guy. I shudder to think what's going to happen if he gets hurt, since I'm pressing him into the setup role for the first two weeks of the season.

Ratings (Stuff/Movement/Control): 11/12/11-Current, 12/13/12-Potential

Closer

Tom Gordon



He might be old, but he's the best pitcher in my bullpen, and that's why Tom Gordon gets the closer role. Default isn't the best way to pick a closer, but that's what I'm going with here. Gordon's 39, and under contract through the 2008 season, so I want to see what he has left in the tank. If he struggles, I'm really going to have an issue, because I wouldn't want to trust any of these other pitchers with trying to close out the ninth inning of a tight game. Please, Tom, don't do that to me. Don't make me put Brett Myers in the closer role like he was in 2007. I don't want to do that.

The Walking Wounded

There is a reason why I'm forced to use players that have hardly spent any time in the majors, and that's because I have a few players that are starting the year hurt. Jon Lieber was my Opening Day starter in 2006. This year, he's going to be spending the first three weeks of the season on the disabled list. Hopefully he can come back and help the starting rotation when he returns. The other big name on the disabled list is Freddy Garcia.

Aside from Adam Eaton, Garcia was the biggest pitching pickup that the Phillies made in the off season, as they traded both Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez to the White Sox for Garcia. Instead of him starting in the first series against the Braves, he's going to be sitting out for at least the first two weeks of the season. The sooner he gets back, the better. Then, I can get some return on the investment they made to pick this guy up, and I can also get Adam Eaton out of the starting rotation. That's a serious win-win right there.

Clay Condrey is being pressed into the setup role for the first few weeks of the season because Antonio Alfonseca, another free agent signing, was injured during spring training. I was banking on Alfonseca being a big part of the back end of my bullpen, but with him hurt, it's just another issue that I have to work out until he gets back to full health. Hopefully, none of my other pitchers get hurt, because I'm paper thin as it is. My best prospects are all down in Single A or Rookie ball, and they're nowhere near being ready for the majors.

The injured players don't get pictures, because only healthy players get their pictures taken.

Up next: My batting order gets looked at. It's the same in a lot of places in 2013 as it is in 2007. I'm not sure if that's a good thing or not.

[Hurkman]

Now this is more like it. While the bullpen and back end of the starting rotation isn't the best in the world, the Phillies have one of the best lineups in baseball. I wish they had a little more pitching, but this team is going to score some runs.

Catcher

Rod Barajas



A decent catcher, Barajas saw his playing time with the Rangers dip in each of the last three seasons, which is why he ended up in Philadelphia with a one year contract. He doesn't have the best arm behind the plate, so our pitchers are going to have to keep an eye on runners when he's back there, but he is a leader and a popular player in the clubhouse, so he's not someone that I will get rid of easily. Catcher isn't our strongest point, but Barajas is a good one year solution.

Ratings (Contact/Gap/Power/Eye/K's): 9/11/10/6/12-Current, 9/12/12/6/12-Potential

Carlos Ruiz



This is pre-Chooch Carlos Ruiz, so right now, he's just a decent younger player from Panama, looking for a chance to break into the bigs. He's younger than Barajas and has a better arm, but I'm going to trust the veteran for now. If he slips, then I'm putting Ruiz in to start. Any Phillies fan knows how that's turned out, and it's a good thing. For now at least, Ruiz is going to wait.

Ratings (Contact/Gap/Power/Eye/K's): 11/11/9/10/10-Current, 12/12/10/11/11-Potential

First Base

Ryan Howard



The cleanup hitter in our lineup, Howard is the reigning National League MVP, having set a club record with 58 home runs in 2006. His power levels are through the roof and his defense is actually solid in this game. He came into the majors at an older age, so he's already into his prime just two seasons into his career. While it means he's going to rake against opposing pitchers for now, his prime is going to be shorter than other players at the same position. The best part is that he's only making $900,000 this year, and no one has signed him to a huge extension in the middle of the year while he is still under contract.

Ratings (Contact/Gap/Power/Eye/K's): 15/12/22/16/7-Current, 15/12/22/16/7-Potential

Greg Dobbs



A utility player that can hold his own in left field and the corner infield spots, he's likely going to get most of his time spelling Howard at first base, so that's where I'm putting him on the depth chart for now. He's a solid bench player, and has started to show more patience at the plate, so I'm expecting him to be a productive member of the team this coming season.

Second Base

Chase Utley



The best second baseman in not only the National League East, but all of baseball, Chase Utley has the benefit of not having his knee issues flaring up on him yet in this world. He is the perfect compliment to Howard as the number three hitter in the Phillies lineup, and with a new, six year extension in hand, he's not going to be leaving Philadelphia any time soon.

Raitings (Contact/Gap/Power/Eye/K's): 14/14/14/12/10-Current, 15/14/15/12/10-Potential

Abraham Nunez



Another super-sub type player off of the bench, Nunez can fill in for Utley at second base, as well as start at shortstop or third base as well. With the depth at third base being as thin as it is this season, Nunez is sure to get some starts there, even with his primary position being at second base. His defense is just alright, and I'm hoping that he can do better with the Phillies than he did with his last major league team back in 2004.

Ratings (Contact/Gap/Power/Eye/K's): 9/10/12/13/9-Current, 9/11/12/13/9-Potential

Third Base

Wes Helms



Remember what I was just saying about our depth being thin at third base? It's so thin that Wes Helms is our starting third baseman. It's not pretty, but it's the best out of what's out there in the free agency pool right now. Believe it or not, Helms is actually a solid hitter, batting .329 with 47 RBI in just 240 at bats last year down in Florida. This is his first real chance to start in the majors, so I'm hoping that the Phillies took a decent chance on this guy.

Ratings (Contact/Gap/Power/Eye/K's): 12/15/11/9/7-Current, 13/16/12/9/7-Potential

Shortstop

Jimmy Rollins



The straw that stirs the drink in Philadelphia, Rollins has taken over the role of team leader with a flourish. At the end of spring training this year, he called the Phillies "the team to beat" in the National League East. His reputation is riding on a claim like that, but with another power surge like he had in 2006, he shouldn't have much to worry about. Add into his hitting skills his ability to steal bases, and the Phillies are looking at another 30-30 club member on this team.

Ratings (Contact/Gap/Power/Eye/K's): 13/15/13/9/14-Current, 15/15/13/9/14-Potential

Left Field

Pat Burrell



As the longest tenured Phillie at the moment, Pat Burrell has been here through the good years and the not so good years. Now he's close to reaching the end of his career with the Phillies, but he still has two more years left on his contract before he hits the open market. Burrell is a threat to hit at least 30 home runs every year, but he will swing at anything within the same zip code when it's thrown off speed towards him. Defense is also a question, but his skills at the plate seem to make people forget about his lacking skills.

Ratings (Contact/Gap/Power/Eye/K's): 11/10/15/16/8-Current, 12/12/15/16/9-Potential

Center Field

Aaron Rowand



Most famous in Philadelphia for running face first into a steel divider to make a catch in 2006, Aaron Rowand is a great defensive player with some pop in his bat as well. He's not going to make people forget about Barry Bonds, but Rowand should bounce back from an average year at the plate in 2006. His all out, take no prisoners style of defense is fun to watch, but it is high risk, and high reward. If he misses a play, a runner is usually going to get an extra base or two. Luckily for the Phillies, he doesn't miss many plays out in the field.

Ratings (Contact/Gap/Power/Eye/K's): 12/12/10/11/11-Current, 12/13/11/11/11-Potential

Michael Bourn



Surprise! Did anyone else remember that the Phillies had Michael Bourn before any other team did? Well, if you did, this is young Bourn, where he is speed, speed and more speed. He is going to be coming off the bench for defense and as a pinch runner for most of the year, and he still could steal 20 bases. That's how fast this kid is. He covers a lot of ground in the outfield, and while his swing needs a little work, you can't teach speed. That's what I want out of almost all my players. You don't give up on any play.

Ratings (Contact/Gap/Power/Eye/K's): 10/8/5/11/8-Current, 12/14/8/13/11-Potential

Right Field

Shane Victorino



A former Rule 5 draft pick, Shane Victorino has evolved into a good all around baseball player. His speed is second on the team only to Michael Bourn, and he's learned how to handle a bat very well. Last year, Victorino had to earn the starting job in right field. This year, he won it before spring training even began. There are high hopes for Victorino, and I certainly think he can improve on where he was last year. It's just a matter of getting him more experience at the plate.

Ratings (Contact/Gap/Power/Eye/K's): 12/12/9/9/13-Current, 12/12/9/10/13-Potential

Jayson Werth



Before he was the $100 million man in Washington DC, Jayson Werth was picked up off the scrap heap by the Phillies. Werth has bounced around between a few teams, and didn't even play in 2006 thanks to a serious wrist injury. The Phillies are hoping that his wrist can hold up so that he can be a productive member of the team and maybe work his way into a starting job down the line. For now, as long as his health is intact, the Phillies are going to use him as a backup in both left and right field. I have my fingers crossed for Werth, as long as he doesn't grow that crazy looking beard with the Phillies.

Ratings (Contact/Gap/Power/Eye/K's): 12/10/11/9/11-Current, 12/10/12/10/11-Potential

The Walking Wounded

Luckily for me and the Phillies, the offense has very few major injuries coming into the start of the regular season. The only injury for a position player on the 25 man roster at the moment is Chris Coste, and to be honest with everyone, he's more of a good story than he is a good catcher. A 33 year old rookie catcher has a very, very limited lifespan in the major leagues, and if his injury is serious, he could have even less time in the big leagues.

The Phillies have more depth in the outfield than most teams, leading me to start looking at partners for a possible trade. For now, I want to keep things the way that they are, since Aaron Rowand is a free agent after this season, and Burrell's contract expires after the 2008 season. I'm going to be looking for Michael Bourn and Jayson Werth to take over the starting spots in the outfield if everything turns out OK.

Up next: A look at the Lineups coming into the season and the best prospects that the Phillies have to offer. Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee are still in Toronto and Cleveland, so the best prospects that the Phillies have are in their own system, not scattered across the minor leagues.

[Hurkman]

Top Prospects

Back in 2007, the Phillies were known for their farm system, and I can tell you why. They re stocked with talent that is either going to help this team win in a few years, or be traded away for players that can help us win now. Here's a look at Philadelphia's top 20 prospects, including where they are in our system right now.

Batters:
1. Adrian Cardenas, 2B-Rookie League
2. Greg Golson, CF-Single A
3. Michael Bourn, CF-Major Leagues
4. Michael Costanzo, 3B-Single A
5. D'Arby Myers, CF-Rookie League
6. Jason Jaramillo, C-Double A
7. C.J. Henry, 3B-Single A
8. Quintin Berry, CF-Rookie League

Pitchers:
1. Cole Hamels, Major Leagues
2. Carlos Carrasco, Double A
3. Kyle Drabek, Rookie League
4. Scott Mathieson, Disabled List (Major Leagues)
5. J.A. Happ, Triple A
6. Edgar Garcia, Single A
7. Kyle Kendrick, Double A
8. Joshua Outman, Single A
9. Drew Carpenter, Single A
10. John Brownell, Rookie League
11. Fabio Castro, Major Leagues
12. Matthew Maloney, Single A

There's a couple of things that stand out to me on that prospect list. First, the Phillies are stacked when it comes to young pitching prospects coming up the pipeline. There is no way that I am going to be able to keep all of these pitchers, so trades are almost a certainty. Only two of the 12 pitchers have made it to the majors so far, so there is still room for most of these guys to grow.

Second, I have no idea what I am going to do with four center field prospects, but at least one of them is going to have to go. Bourn is already with the big club, and Myers and Berry are at least two years away from being anything, so that seems to leave Golson as the odd man out. I'm going to have to see what the word on the street is about some of these offensive prospects, but I'm not above trading one or two of them for a big player on the mound or with the bat.

A lot of the big talent for the Phillies came from their minor league system, and the club now has one of the best farm systems in baseball, ranking at number seven in the Major League rankings, and fourth in National League teams. Cole Hamels is still my highest ranked prospect, coming in as the number two ranked prospect in all of baseball behind just Justin Upton of the Arizona Diamondbacks. I'm not sure how much of a prospect Hamels is at this point, but I'm ok with it. It makes our farm system look that much better.

That's a quick look at the future Phillies, now let's take a look at the lineups for this team coming into the regular season.

Starting Lineups

vs. RHP
1. Jimmy Rollins (S)-SS
2. Aaron Rowand (R)-CF
3. Chase Utley (L)-2B
4. Ryan Howard (L)-1B
5. Pat Burrell (R)-LF
6. Shane Victorino (S)-RF
7. Rod Barajas (R)-C
8. Wes Helms (R)-3B

vs. LHP
1. Jimmy Rollins (S)-SS
2. Shane Victorino (S)-RF
3. Chase Utley (L)-2B
4. Ryan Howard (L)-1B
5. Pat Burrell (R)-LF
6. Aaron Rowand (R)-CF
7. Rod Barajas (R)-C
8. Wes Helms (R)-3B

Not exactly many changes between left and right handed pitchers, is there? To be honest, it's tough to switch this lineup around too much, no matter who is on the mound. Jimmy Rollins is going to be leading off, and then we like Victorino against lefties and Rowand batting second against right handers. The core of the lineup is the same, because you aren't moving Chase, Ryan and Pat from their spots. Shane and Aaron flip flop again, and then you get the weaker spots at seven and eight. I honestly don't see much to change there. Hopefully, these guys can hit against good pitching, because their older versions don't seem to be able to do such a good job at it.

So those are my starting lineups. I'm sticking with them, unless someone gets hurt or is playing very poorly. Then, changes will obviously have to be made. Our pitching rotation is the same as it looks when I broke that down. Brett Myers will be my Opening Day starter against the Braves. Hopefully, he can do better in this than he did in real life during the early part of the 2007 season. I really don't want to send him down to the minor leagues. I don't think it would go over well.

Up Next: It's Opening Day! Time for some actual baseball!

[Hurkman]

If you had told me before the start of the first game of this season that Brett Myers would pitch into the seventh inning and allow no earned runs, I may have been tempted to laugh in your face. However, that's exactly what happened. Myers dodged more bullets than anyone thought would be possible and even out-pitched John Smoltz, but that's not the whole story for this game.

We started out quickly against Smoltz, scoring twice in the second inning. Smoltz didn't have his best stuff, walking two batters in the first two innings and allowing Shane Victorino to score on a wild pitch. Wes Helms added the second run with a double down the left field line. Meanwhile, Atlanta loaded the bases with one out in the fourth inning, but Myers forced back to back pop ups to get us out of the inning without allowing a run. A leadoff triple for the Braves in the fifth inning somehow resulted in no runs being scored, and we made the Braves pay for it in our half of the fifth. Ryan Howard drove home Wes Helms and Jimmy Rollins, and we were sitting pretty with a 4-0 lead.

Everything was calm until the top of the seventh inning. Myers retired the first two Braves without a problem, and got Matt Diaz to ground to third base. Instead of being the third out of the inning, Wes Helms dropped the ball and allowed the Braves to stay alive. The only problem with that is when you leave the door open, even for just a second against a team like Atlanta, they'll kick it in. That's exactly what they did. Myers gave up an RBI double to Brian McCann and an RBI single to Chipper Jones before he was lifted for Chris Key.

Key had one job: strike out Andruw Jones. It didn't happen, as Jones hit an RBI double that brought Scott Thorman to the plate. Thorman fouled off the first pitch from Key, then deposited the next pitch into the right field stands. Just like that, a 4-0 lead and a great start by Brett Myers was wasted. Clay Condrey would work a 1-2-3 eighth inning, but Ryan Madson gave up a solo home run to Brian McCann in the ninth inning that increased the Atlanta lead to 6-4. Rollins, Rowand and Utley went down without a fight in the bottom of the ninth, and we dropped our first game of the year thanks to that same bullpen I was worried about all winter long.



W-John Smoltz (1-0) L-Chris Key (0-1) S-Bob Wickman (1)

Up Next: A look back at the month of April. Hopefully the rest of the month doesn't go as badly as Opening Day did.