Drunken Preseason Predictions

John C · 04-10-2012, 11:54 AM

Someone at the Harrisburg Patriot-News is smoking something. Or smelling paint thinner.

Going into the 1999 season, the editors at The Patriot tried their hand at the yearly predictions of the area twilight league. The Capital Area Baseball League, formed in 1950, had recently been completely dominated by Duncannon. The Fightin' Cannons had won the last six West Shore titles, and eight of the last nine. In fact, last season, they came the first team ever to win 100+ games in a season, which consists of 140 contests (this coincides with Hampden Township having the worst run in league history, falling to win more than 35 games in each of the last two seasons, and finishing either seventh or last in each of the last eight seasons).

Regardless, the crack bunch of journalists and analysts at The Patriot seem to think that Duncannon's run is going to be stopped by Enola this year. The Panthers finished third last year at 76-64, ten games worse than their third-place mark two years ago. Enola had no real changes to speak of. There is one change, though, that the writers believe will put the Panthers over the top.

Ralph Cook.

Yes, THAT Ralph Cook.

Who is Ralph Cook, you ask? The writers scoff at your silly inquiry. Why, he's the Ralph Cook who only went 8-10 with a 4.49 ERA last year. In two seasons with Enola, he's gone a rather manly pedestrian 14-18 with an ERA around 5. He served up merely 32 bombs last year. He's only 35, and has posted three winning seasons in his career, and none since going 13-10 for East Shore also-ran Linglestown in 1995!

The #3 starter for Enola, while not among the top 20 pitchers in the league (in fact, Enola has no pitchers among the top 20), has been anointed by the crack squad at The Patriot as Enola's savior this year. Their prediction? They believe Mr. Cook will go 17-2 with a 3.50 ERA, leading Enola to a 90-50 record, five games better than Duncannon, and eight games better than rival Mechanicsburg.

I can't wait to see how this shakes out.

John C · 04-10-2012, 11:55 AM

The preseason predictions are fantastic, and add such immersion to the game, as you can see above. I'm curious...when reviewing your preseason predictions, have you ever seen something so crazy, it made you laugh?

Markus Heinsohn · 04-10-2012, 01:51 PM

I check these before every season I pla and often find a couple of surprises

reds1 · 04-10-2012, 01:59 PM

Does running the preseason prediction after spring training make a difference as opposed running it beforehand?
I'm just wondering if it would factor in long-term injuries and such that would alter the results.

John C · 04-10-2012, 02:04 PM

I believe it runs, by default, the day before the season begins. I don't know of any way to change that, nor have I tried.

From my understanding, it runs three test sims and averages everything out for the predictions. So, I believe it would take the rosters, as they were, into account. But I also know it had one pitcher as one of the best pitchers in the league that year, when he'd been on the DL for a considerable amount of time. At that point, he only had one week to go, so perhaps it was factored in that he'd come off and perform well. Unfortunately, his Hall of Fame career was derailed by injuries. He could have been the best ever.

Cras · 04-10-2012, 02:36 PM

I always run the predictions on the first day of spring training, when everyone has thier rosters active. And they are often good predictions. Some crazy things have happened. The past year I saw they predicted a team that has been absolutely dominate, won the pennant like 14 years in a row, and the World Series 7 times in a row, all of a sudden are supposed to finish in 5th place. Well, behold! After the season was done they did not finish in 5th place, but rather dead last!

I really enjoy this feature, always have since it was introduced last year. I find it quite fun going into a season with an expectation of what certain teams should contend, and then have a shock or two when they don't, or some darkhorse shows up and wins the league, which happened in my last season.

Bluenoser · 04-10-2012, 02:39 PM

In 12 the user had to run the operation. In 13 it does it automatically when opening day arrives. Haven't tried running it at any other time as I like the predictions from opening day better than at the start of ST. On opening day, your rosters are pretty much set where as when ST starts you have up to 40 players on the active roster.

MizzouRah · 04-10-2012, 04:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bluenoser

In 12 the user had to run the operation. In 13 it does it automatically when opening day arrives. Haven't tried running it at any other time as I like the predictions from opening day better than at the start of ST. On opening day, your rosters are pretty much set where as when ST starts you have up to 40 players on the active roster.

This is good to know, thanks!

04-10-2012, 11:54 AM	#1
John C Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Albion, RI Posts: 2,286 Infractions: 1/0 (0)	Drunken Preseason Predictions Someone at the Harrisburg Patriot-News is smoking something. Or smelling paint thinner. Going into the 1999 season, the editors at The Patriot tried their hand at the yearly predictions of the area twilight league. The Capital Area Baseball League, formed in 1950, had recently been completely dominated by Duncannon. The Fightin' Cannons had won the last six West Shore titles, and eight of the last nine. In fact, last season, they came the first team ever to win 100+ games in a season, which consists of 140 contests (this coincides with Hampden Township having the worst run in league history, falling to win more than 35 games in each of the last two seasons, and finishing either seventh or last in each of the last eight seasons). Regardless, the crack bunch of journalists and analysts at The Patriot seem to think that Duncannon's run is going to be stopped by Enola this year. The Panthers finished third last year at 76-64, ten games worse than their third-place mark two years ago. Enola had no real changes to speak of. There is one change, though, that the writers believe will put the Panthers over the top. Ralph Cook. Yes, THAT Ralph Cook. Who is Ralph Cook, you ask? The writers scoff at your silly inquiry. Why, he's the Ralph Cook who only went 8-10 with a 4.49 ERA last year. In two seasons with Enola, he's gone a rather manly pedestrian 14-18 with an ERA around 5. He served up merely 32 bombs last year. He's only 35, and has posted three winning seasons in his career, and none since going 13-10 for East Shore also-ran Linglestown in 1995! The #3 starter for Enola, while not among the top 20 pitchers in the league (in fact, Enola has no pitchers among the top 20), has been anointed by the crack squad at The Patriot as Enola's savior this year. Their prediction? They believe Mr. Cook will go 17-2 with a 3.50 ERA, leading Enola to a 90-50 record, five games better than Duncannon, and eight games better than rival Mechanicsburg. I can't wait to see how this shakes out. __________________ Facebook \| My Videos

04-10-2012, 11:55 AM	#2
John C Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Albion, RI Posts: 2,286 Infractions: 1/0 (0)	The preseason predictions are fantastic, and add such immersion to the game, as you can see above. I'm curious...when reviewing your preseason predictions, have you ever seen something so crazy, it made you laugh? __________________ Facebook \| My Videos

04-10-2012, 01:59 PM	#4
reds1 Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2002 Location: Winnipeg Posts: 3,985	Does running the preseason prediction after spring training make a difference as opposed running it beforehand? I'm just wondering if it would factor in long-term injuries and such that would alter the results. __________________ United Leagues of Braeland

04-10-2012, 02:04 PM	#5
John C Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Albion, RI Posts: 2,286 Infractions: 1/0 (0)	I believe it runs, by default, the day before the season begins. I don't know of any way to change that, nor have I tried. From my understanding, it runs three test sims and averages everything out for the predictions. So, I believe it would take the rosters, as they were, into account. But I also know it had one pitcher as one of the best pitchers in the league that year, when he'd been on the DL for a considerable amount of time. At that point, he only had one week to go, so perhaps it was factored in that he'd come off and perform well. Unfortunately, his Hall of Fame career was derailed by injuries. He could have been the best ever. __________________ Facebook \| My Videos

04-10-2012, 02:36 PM	#6
Cras Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: LEO Posts: 3,789	I always run the predictions on the first day of spring training, when everyone has thier rosters active. And they are often good predictions. Some crazy things have happened. The past year I saw they predicted a team that has been absolutely dominate, won the pennant like 14 years in a row, and the World Series 7 times in a row, all of a sudden are supposed to finish in 5th place. Well, behold! After the season was done they did not finish in 5th place, but rather dead last! I really enjoy this feature, always have since it was introduced last year. I find it quite fun going into a season with an expectation of what certain teams should contend, and then have a shock or two when they don't, or some darkhorse shows up and wins the league, which happened in my last season. __________________ The Chicago White Sox 1906, 1917, 2005 World Series Champions 1900, 1901, 1906, 1917, 1919, 1959, 2005 American League Champions 2000, 2005, 2008 American League Central Division Champions 1983, 1993 American League West Division Champions OOTP \| Orbiter \| SSMS \| FSX \| LoL \| MLP:FIM!

04-10-2012, 01:51 PM	#3
Markus Heinsohn Developer OOTP Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Germany Posts: 24,803	I check these before every season I pla and often find a couple of surprises __________________ Buy Out of the Park Baseball 25 now! Download OOTP Go 25 for iOS Download OOTP Go 25 for Android

04-10-2012, 02:39 PM	#7
Bluenoser Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: In The Moment Posts: 14,490	In 12 the user had to run the operation. In 13 it does it automatically when opening day arrives. Haven't tried running it at any other time as I like the predictions from opening day better than at the start of ST. On opening day, your rosters are pretty much set where as when ST starts you have up to 40 players on the active roster.