Played game out distribution

mtw · 05-05-2002, 02:46 PM

As someone who plays about 100 games per season, I tend to pay attention to the details of each game. I like to have text sims produce a feel of listening to a real ball game. One of the details I have been studying is the groundout distribution in OOTP4. This was prompted by what I thought were a high number of LH hitting groundballs to 3B and also by a large number of groundballs to the mound.

I studied about 150 games for distribution of groundballs fielded by infielders (including IF hits and errors but not bunts) and 101 games of grounders fielded by the pitcher (including errors but not bunts) and came up with these results:

(hitter type, # of balls fielded per type, % distribution to 1B, 2B, SS, 3B)
LH-spray, 226, 24.8%, 33.6%, 25.7%, 15.9%
LH-norm, 593, 20.2%, 33.1%, 29.7%, 17.0%
LH-pull, 233, 14.2%, 33.0%, 36.9%, 15.9%

RH-spray, 319, 11.3%, 31.7%, 29.2%, 27.9%
RH-norm, 1155, 11.6%, 30.7%, 29.7%, 28.0%
RH-pull, 323, 12.4%, 27.6%, 32.2%, 27.9%

I was very pleased when I saw that the "Pull Rating" was included as a new feature for OOTP4. Unfortunately, it appears that it doesn't work or that the "feature" was only a label, like birthplace or nickname.

I would very much like to see the rating appropriately implemented into game play. I would like to see the LH pull hitters not hit ground balls to 3B, RH pull hitters not hit ground balls to 1B, and the distribution to be more sensible and defined.

As for grounders fielded by pitchers, in 906 innings, there were 310 ground balls fielded. This means that a pitcher who pitched 200 innings would average about 34 grounders fielded, not accounting for individual pitcher range or GB%. I was pleasantly surprised as this is a very reasonable number for modern day baseball.

As a side note, it would be cool to have OOTP4 generate players for specific eras (higher GB% for deadball era pitchers, higher average 3B ratings for deadball era hitters, and low fielding average for deadball era players, for example).

[ 05-07-2002, 06:59 PM: Message edited by: mtw ]

mtw · 05-07-2002, 01:03 PM

I guess I didn't ask for feedback initially, but I would be interested to know if there are plans to incorporate the "Pull Rating" as a factor in game play rather than as a label.

SSG Troyer · 05-07-2002, 02:24 PM

I don't really have a comment, except to say, "Wow."

You really got one sharp pencil, there, mtw.

And that I agree, it's a shame your numbers show something I hadn't expected.

Draft Dodger · 05-07-2002, 02:29 PM

very interesting.

my first thought on this would be - why just include groundballs? when I think of a "pull hitter", I'm thinking of a guy more likely to hit a fly ball, and a groundball of more as a miss-hit.

I'd be very interested to see the data including all sorts of hits - groundballs and flyballs. If THAT data shows these same kind of numbers, then we have a problem...

mtw · 05-07-2002, 07:55 PM

<blockquote>quote:<hr />Originally posted by Draft Dodger:
very interesting.

my first thought on this would be - why just include groundballs? when I think of a "pull hitter", I'm thinking of a guy more likely to hit a fly ball, and a groundball of more as a miss-hit.

I'd be very interested to see the data including all sorts of hits - groundballs and flyballs. If THAT data shows these same kind of numbers, then we have a problem...<hr /></blockquote>Groundballs are where a hitter's pull tendency shows up the most, so that is where I focused my attention. Many hitters (McGwire, Bonds, Sosa, Giambi, etc.) who consistently pull groundballs will hit fly balls to the opposite field with some regularity (well, Bonds not so much any more), so in case that was part of the programming I decided not to pursue it. I did track flyballs for a few games but the count was going the same way as groundballs, so I decided to focus only on groundballs.

[ 05-08-2002, 02:20 AM: Message edited by: mtw ]

mtw · 05-07-2002, 08:19 PM

<blockquote>quote:<hr />Originally posted by SSG Troyer:
I don't really have a comment, except to say, "Wow."

You really got one sharp pencil, there, mtw.

And that I agree, it's a shame your numbers show something I hadn't expected.<hr /></blockquote>I am somewhat obsessive/compulsive about baseball statistics and I love OOTP, so the two sort of feed off each other in a way that's not necessarily healthy for my pencils

I actually only started keeping track when my left handed pull hitters seemed to keep slapping the ball to 3rd base with a man on third, but I later found that it was done fairly regularly even without a man on 3rd. I honestly expected the distribution to be logical according to the pull rating and that my perception of frequency was skewed by the "last play," as has happened with other game events. I took as large a sample size as I thought would be meaningful (200+ groundballs by LH RH batters for each pull rating).

Compulsive or not, I wouldn't have bothered tracking through so many games if the "pull rating" were not important to my enjoyment of the played game. I have been looking for the perfect baseball game for 20 years, and OOTP4 is the best I've played. I want to see it even better than it is now.

Malleus Dei · 05-08-2002, 04:03 AM

Please email that data to Markus.

mtw · 05-08-2002, 11:33 AM

<blockquote>quote:<hr />Originally posted by Malleus Dei:
Please email that data to Markus.<hr /></blockquote>Good idea.

JML · 05-08-2002, 01:45 PM

I'm not trying to refute your findings by asking this, I just want to confirm something I've heard here and there.

Don't pull hitters tend to ground out the other way when they try to pull an outside pitch?

mtw · 05-09-2002, 07:48 AM

<blockquote>quote:<hr />Originally posted by JML:
I'm not trying to refute your findings by asking this, I just want to confirm something I've heard here and there.

Don't pull hitters tend to ground out the other way when they try to pull an outside pitch?<hr /></blockquote>Usually, no. When good power hitters are going well, they will often hit line drives and long fly balls to center or the opposite/center field with authority. When they start pulling every pitch, they will hit a lot of popoups and groundballs to their side of the infield. Watch Bonds, Giambi, McGriff, Hundley, Sheffield, etc. or ref history like Jim Rice, Mike Schmidt, Reggie Jackson, etc. (off the top of my head). Or watch games pitched by Maddux or Glavine, who live on the outside corner and watch how the power hitters fare against them on outside pitches.

Watch games with veteran player announcers or color guys sometime (Joe Morgan, Ken Harrelson, etc.) and you'll here them talk about going the other way with the outside pitch to hit it with authority.

Hitters trying to pull the ball are not going to be behind the outside pitch because it's outside; they "compensate" for the added distance the bat has to travel to make contact by starting their earlier, which may cause their wrists to before making contact, or opening up their stance earlier(their front foot and shoulder), which may throw off their balance, and the result (if they make contact) is often a ground ball to their side of the field or a pop up. Someone else probably has a greater understanding and ability to explain the mechanics of this; I got a D in physics

.

mtw · 05-10-2002, 10:47 AM

<blockquote>quote:<hr />Originally posted by JML:
Don't pull hitters tend to ground out the other way when they try to pull an outside pitch?<hr /></blockquote>Just a little followup. Coincidentally, while I was writing the prior post yesterday, I was also watching the Cubs v. Brewers game

and Joe Carter commented on this very thing. Fred "Crime Dog" McGriff ("Crime Dog" now refering to the fact he steals his paycheck every week) was hitting and the wind was blowing out to right. McGriff kept trying to hit everything to right field, including a couple of pitches over the righthanded batters box. To paraphrase Carter, "All that's gonna happen is he's gonna roll the ball to the 2nd baseman."

Now there's some expert testimony for ya. <img border="0" title="" alt="[Wink]" src="wink.gif" />

05-05-2002, 02:46 PM	#1
mtw All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 653	Played game out distribution As someone who plays about 100 games per season, I tend to pay attention to the details of each game. I like to have text sims produce a feel of listening to a real ball game. One of the details I have been studying is the groundout distribution in OOTP4. This was prompted by what I thought were a high number of LH hitting groundballs to 3B and also by a large number of groundballs to the mound. I studied about 150 games for distribution of groundballs fielded by infielders (including IF hits and errors but not bunts) and 101 games of grounders fielded by the pitcher (including errors but not bunts) and came up with these results: (hitter type, # of balls fielded per type, % distribution to 1B, 2B, SS, 3B) LH-spray, 226, 24.8%, 33.6%, 25.7%, 15.9% LH-norm, 593, 20.2%, 33.1%, 29.7%, 17.0% LH-pull, 233, 14.2%, 33.0%, 36.9%, 15.9% RH-spray, 319, 11.3%, 31.7%, 29.2%, 27.9% RH-norm, 1155, 11.6%, 30.7%, 29.7%, 28.0% RH-pull, 323, 12.4%, 27.6%, 32.2%, 27.9% I was very pleased when I saw that the "Pull Rating" was included as a new feature for OOTP4. Unfortunately, it appears that it doesn't work or that the "feature" was only a label, like birthplace or nickname. I would very much like to see the rating appropriately implemented into game play. I would like to see the LH pull hitters not hit ground balls to 3B, RH pull hitters not hit ground balls to 1B, and the distribution to be more sensible and defined. As for grounders fielded by pitchers, in 906 innings, there were 310 ground balls fielded. This means that a pitcher who pitched 200 innings would average about 34 grounders fielded, not accounting for individual pitcher range or GB%. I was pleasantly surprised as this is a very reasonable number for modern day baseball. As a side note, it would be cool to have OOTP4 generate players for specific eras (higher GB% for deadball era pitchers, higher average 3B ratings for deadball era hitters, and low fielding average for deadball era players, for example). <small>[ 05-07-2002, 06:59 PM: Message edited by: mtw ]</small> __________________ Over-Zealous Apologist

05-07-2002, 01:03 PM	#2
mtw All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 653	I guess I didn't ask for feedback initially, but I would be interested to know if there are plans to incorporate the "Pull Rating" as a factor in game play rather than as a label. __________________ Over-Zealous Apologist

05-07-2002, 02:24 PM	#3
SSG Troyer All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Somewhere to the left of 2nd base Posts: 1,598	I don't really have a comment, except to say, "Wow." You really got one sharp pencil, there, mtw. And that I agree, it's a shame your numbers show something I hadn't expected. __________________ MWT Did Tennesee Delaware Mississppi's New Jersey? Idaho ... Alaska!

05-07-2002, 02:29 PM	#4
Draft Dodger Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: formerly of the OTBL Posts: 4,113	very interesting. my first thought on this would be - why just include groundballs? when I think of a "pull hitter", I'm thinking of a guy more likely to hit a fly ball, and a groundball of more as a miss-hit. I'd be very interested to see the data including all sorts of hits - groundballs and flyballs. If THAT data shows these same kind of numbers, then we have a problem... __________________ Draft Dodger (Anarchy: Anything goes. The Draft Dodger viewpoint.) Sophmoric[sic] Member of the OOTP Boards (It's not OOTP; it's your computer) 15 GB Webhosting for $6.95 a month IMO we are best off abandoning that sinking ship that is Off Topic to the rats infesting it and just starting a whole new Baseball Forum from scratch.

05-07-2002, 07:55 PM	#5
mtw All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 653	</font><blockquote><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><hr /><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Originally posted by Draft Dodger: <strong>very interesting. my first thought on this would be - why just include groundballs? when I think of a "pull hitter", I'm thinking of a guy more likely to hit a fly ball, and a groundball of more as a miss-hit. I'd be very interested to see the data including all sorts of hits - groundballs and flyballs. If THAT data shows these same kind of numbers, then we have a problem...</strong></font><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Groundballs are where a hitter's pull tendency shows up the most, so that is where I focused my attention. Many hitters (McGwire, Bonds, Sosa, Giambi, etc.) who consistently pull groundballs will hit fly balls to the opposite field with some regularity (well, Bonds not so much any more), so in case that was part of the programming I decided not to pursue it. I did track flyballs for a few games but the count was going the same way as groundballs, so I decided to focus only on groundballs. <small>[ 05-08-2002, 02:20 AM: Message edited by: mtw ]</small> __________________ Over-Zealous Apologist

05-07-2002, 08:19 PM	#6
mtw All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 653	</font><blockquote><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><hr /><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Originally posted by SSG Troyer: <strong>I don't really have a comment, except to say, "Wow." You really got one sharp pencil, there, mtw. And that I agree, it's a shame your numbers show something I hadn't expected.</strong></font><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">I am somewhat obsessive/compulsive about baseball statistics and I love OOTP, so the two sort of feed off each other in a way that's not necessarily healthy for my pencils I actually only started keeping track when my left handed pull hitters seemed to keep slapping the ball to 3rd base with a man on third, but I later found that it was done fairly regularly even without a man on 3rd. I honestly expected the distribution to be logical according to the pull rating and that my perception of frequency was skewed by the "last play," as has happened with other game events. I took as large a sample size as I thought would be meaningful (200+ groundballs by LH RH batters for each pull rating). Compulsive or not, I wouldn't have bothered tracking through so many games if the "pull rating" were not important to my enjoyment of the played game. I have been looking for the perfect baseball game for 20 years, and OOTP4 is the best I've played. I want to see it even better than it is now. __________________ Over-Zealous Apologist

05-08-2002, 11:33 AM	#8
mtw All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 653	</font><blockquote><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><hr /><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Originally posted by Malleus Dei: <strong>Please email that data to Markus.</strong></font><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Good idea. __________________ Over-Zealous Apologist

05-08-2002, 01:45 PM	#9
JML Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: The act or process of locating. Posts: 2,154	I'm not trying to refute your findings by asking this, I just want to confirm something I've heard here and there. Don't pull hitters tend to ground out the other way when they try to pull an outside pitch?

05-09-2002, 07:48 AM	#10
mtw All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 653	</font><blockquote><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><hr /><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Originally posted by JML: <strong>I'm not trying to refute your findings by asking this, I just want to confirm something I've heard here and there. Don't pull hitters tend to ground out the other way when they try to pull an outside pitch?</strong></font><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Usually, no. When good power hitters are going well, they will often hit line drives and long fly balls to center or the opposite/center field with authority. When they start pulling every pitch, they will hit a lot of popoups and groundballs to their side of the infield. Watch Bonds, Giambi, McGriff, Hundley, Sheffield, etc. or ref history like Jim Rice, Mike Schmidt, Reggie Jackson, etc. (off the top of my head). Or watch games pitched by Maddux or Glavine, who live on the outside corner and watch how the power hitters fare against them on outside pitches. Watch games with veteran player announcers or color guys sometime (Joe Morgan, Ken Harrelson, etc.) and you'll here them talk about going the other way with the outside pitch to hit it with authority. Hitters trying to pull the ball are not going to be behind the outside pitch because it's outside; they "compensate" for the added distance the bat has to travel to make contact by starting their earlier, which may cause their wrists to before making contact, or opening up their stance earlier(their front foot and shoulder), which may throw off their balance, and the result (if they make contact) is often a ground ball to their side of the field or a pop up. Someone else probably has a greater understanding and ability to explain the mechanics of this; I got a D in physics . __________________ Over-Zealous Apologist

05-10-2002, 10:47 AM	#11
mtw All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 653	</font><blockquote><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><hr /><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Originally posted by JML: <strong>Don't pull hitters tend to ground out the other way when they try to pull an outside pitch?</strong></font><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Just a little followup. Coincidentally, while I was writing the prior post yesterday, I was also watching the Cubs v. Brewers game and Joe Carter commented on this very thing. Fred "Crime Dog" McGriff ("Crime Dog" now refering to the fact he steals his paycheck every week) was hitting and the wind was blowing out to right. McGriff kept trying to hit everything to right field, including a couple of pitches over the righthanded batters box. To paraphrase Carter, "All that's gonna happen is he's gonna roll the ball to the 2nd baseman." Now there's some expert testimony for ya. <img border="0" title="" alt="[Wink]" src="wink.gif" /> __________________ Over-Zealous Apologist