Classic Questions Series: 4 Man vs. 5 Man Rotations

[Sudy Nym]

I give a small apology in advance- I realize that this is most likely a pretty common question. I did a search for similar topics, but found nothing that gave me the exact specifics that I'm looking for.

I'll try to give you the question straight up, and add the specifics after. In the post-1980 era, using a mixture of real and fictional players (the case with most internet leagues after a few seasons), what are the benefits and drawbacks to using a four-man rotation over a five-man rotation?

The main question basically boils down to a question of stamina. Do pitchers have less energy per start if they're pitching on only three days of rest continually? (Even though they're not rated "tired.")

Here's the status of my staff: I'm crowded with capable starters- a result of the bulk of the league's MR talent not yet being mature. I do have three or four quality relievers, but my pen isn't very strong in comparison to my staff. Last year, after the trading deadline, I had five starters competing for four staff positions, and two or three more in reserve (though, based on their ratings, I wouldn't play two of them in anything more than the five-spot- I wouldn't play them at all, if possible). Luckily (in an ironic sense), one went down with a lengthy injury, and the remaining four performed well. Of the five, three are definite top-forty-in-the-league starters. One is a proven top-ten, possibly top-five. The other two-of-five are over-achievers, but they've proven that they can contribute. Based on last season's statistics, I'd be comfortable starting either of them third on your average team.

Four of them have stamina rated at "C." The fifth, and best, a "D." I'd like to have him raise it in spring training, but you can only hope. The C pitchers averaged over six innings per start- what I'd consider to be typical. The D, on the other hand- despite his excellent ratings and stats, there would be a lot of games where he'd pitch himself out of them in under six innings. He'd occasionally go seven or eight, but for every eight-inning outing, he'd only go 3.2 or 4.1. Had this pitcher usually had four or five days of rest, do you think that he would have been able to accumulate more innings? By the end of the season, he had started 41 games, and pitched 237 innings (over 5.2 per- the C pitchers were nearly all over 6.2).

So, assuming that I can afford to keep them all on-hand, I really wouldn't be in much of a predicament. Unless the five-man rotation would allow the top three more stamina per start, I'm guessing that the four-man rotation would be best, considering that my staff is so talented. And even so, the fifth pitcher could spot-start/pitch from the pen.

But here's where things get complicated. I have two great young starters in AAA- one a young 24 (stamina "B"), the other an old 25 ("C"). They're each already at AR 5/AH 5 or better according to the scout, other ratings varying. Given the excellent responses of Killebrew and others in a recent thread (http://www.400softwarestudios.com/bo...threadid=19813 ) and the in-game scouting reports, they're ready to be brought up. If these guys are indeed ready to play in the big leagues, they have the kind of potential that make me want to start them ahead of the lesser two starters- up there with the top three I mentioned. Were the elder one not nearing 26, I'd hold him back in AAA a while longer- and I just might leave him there to start the season. But this more-or-less means that I have seven capable starters (and an eighth in reserve), or will by season's end, should they still all be playing with me.

So, given their stamina ratings and talent, do you think that I should stick with the four-man rotation? Or does the fact that I have five starters with above-average potential mean that I could also use the five-man? If I stick with the four long-term, it wouldn't be a problem for me to trade one of the big three, as I do need some financial room.

As a follow-up, once I've decided on the four or five main starters, will I be able to pitch the other two/three from the pen? Is there any downside to pitching a pitcher rated only at starter from the bullpen? I know I'd get a few e-mails, but is there any actual statistical disadvantage? And how do they fare stamina-wise? If I'm better-suited only keeping one or two of the extra starters, I know I could work the surplus into some trades. But given their past performance, if they can do well from the pen, they might be more useful to me there (as, again, the league is short on quality relievers).

I thank you very much for taking the time to read my post- I know it was rather lengthy. I'd be very appreciative of any answer or advice that you could give me.

(One unrelated question- what observations have been made when it comes to pitchers with low groundball percentages? The 24 year-old I mentioned has a great outlook, but a groundball percentage of only 31. With his potentially great AR, I'd assume that he'd still get the outs, they'd only be flyballs more often- resulting in less double plays and more sacrifices. What experiences have you had? Thanks again.)

[voxpoptart]

Can't answer most of that, but two i can:
(1) Unfortunately, in a modern era setting, a 4-man rotation seems to be a very bad idea. Not just a pitcher's stamina, but his performance, tend to show up reduced on short rest.
(2) Groundball pitchers do indeed get more double-plays, and yield fewer sacrifice flies, than flyball pitchers. On the downside, more infield errors happen to them. But if you have a good infield defense, then yes, i think groundballers have an advantage.

[fhomess]

Let me guess, you're the Yankees.

[BillyBuck]

Woa! So you're saying that there is a big disadvantage to using a 4-man rotation?? I just started using one in one of my online leagues. More info, please. Anybody?

[blynch10]

Just a quick thought but the stamina depends on the era settings. I think modern era pitchers are set to fair endurance. I've tried switching this to normal and an A starter went from tiring around 120 pitches to around 140-150. The higher the pitcher enudrance rating the better a smaller rotation will work.

[obaslg]

1) 4-man rotation: I use it exclusively. The SP goes fewer innings per start, but many more IP total over the year. I don't know where it is, but somewhere there's a chart of how many pitches a SP can pitch every 5 days - that is, if he's pitched at all in the preceding 5 days he can't go quite as long. I haven't seen any performance difference - I haven't done any scientific tests, but I've had some stupendous seasons with SP in a 4-man (e.g., two 30-winners in one season).

I play in a very competitive division in my online league, so on that basis it's a no-brainer. It might be different if I was in first with a big cushion, and wanted to give a youngster some experience.

Some think that it makes injury more likely. I don't trust anything anecdotal regarding injuries, since the N is so small, and I've never done a real test.

Be warned that one of the few differences between a "MR" with starter endurance and a "SP" is that the "MR" will not be able to pitch on only 3 days rest, so if you plan to put that kind of guy in a 4-man rotation, make sure to change him to a "SP" at the start of the season.

An advantage of the 5-man rotation is that if you have an injury you can just temporarily go 4-man.

2) In your situation, unless your #5 was pretty close to as good as your #1, I'd do a 4-man, and trade away anything extra, though as I said, if you're not competing this year, you might try to get as many guys into the rotation as possible for the development experience.

3) I haven't played SP at MR too much. One thing for sure: they will complain, and I assume that means they will not perform as well - I haven't heard of any test of that. The endurance seems fine, though.

4) GB/FB can be very important. I had Hampton (70% GB) and an A/A middle infield. His ratings started to tank, especially in walks (like 2-3), but he still did fine. I played out some test games and watched his bizarre strategy: walk, DP, groundout; repeat. He had a 2.95 ERA with 130 walks.

[Sudy Nym]

I thank you all for your responses, though it seems that the verdict is mixed. Perhaps I should have added a poll- though then I might have only received votes, and no responses. ;P

voxpoptart claims that the players' ratings take a hit when they're not fully rested, while obaslg professes that while they'll pitch less per start, if you have a strong staff, you'll have the benefit of having them pitch more often, for more total innings.

I'm not worried about injuries- they happen. I'm not going to set my rotation based upon that fear. I do, however, wonder if there truly is a talent hit as voxpoptart suggests. This would make me want to go to the five-man. Also, I don't know if my bullpen is strong enough to make up for the shorter innings-per-game that the starters will pitch. But it worked for me last year, so I'm inclined to use it again.

Please add anything else that you can think of, as I'm still somewhat stumped. ;P But thank you very much for all of your opinions, so far.

Regarding obaslg's comment "In your situation, unless your #5 was pretty close to as good as your #1, I'd do a 4-man...," while the starter I'd start fifth certainly is no Kerry Wood at this point, I would feel comfortable starting him third, maybe second, in a barren rotation. The only hitch is that I'm not sure if he's ready to play at the ML level- but he's nearing 26. The other young guy, Bradley, is only 24. But in accordance with Killebrew's opinions, I strongly believe that he is ready to step up and finish developing at the ML level.

Let me guess, you're the Yankees.

Lol, no- I'm afraid. The league started out as a "rookie" league, but all the teams are fictional. Well, they aren't necessarily fictional, but we started with a CPU draft and equal financials. That being said, I have built a relatively strong rotation. But I'm hardly the Yankees. If you're curious, the players I mentioned are as follows:

The "Big Three"

-Kerry Wood
-Barry Zito
-Shawn Chacon

The Overachievers

-Tony Mcknight
-Steve Green

In Reserve

-Eric Junge
-Kyle Peterson
-Sean Douglass

The Young Guys

-Bobby Bradley
-Ben Diggins

We're now starting 2005, and I believe the players were originally imported from the Lahman Database. If you'd like to take a look at the league or my team, they're linked in my signature.

[obaslg]

A possible explanation for a perceived performance drop in a 4-man:

I assume that the starter's last inning of each start is worse than his others - he's tiring, and obviously his performance that start is dropping, or he wouldn't be pulled in the first place. In a 4-man, the SP will have more starts, but fewer innings per start, so that the one bad inning (his last inning) per start makes up a larger portion of his total start, so his ERA is worse.

E.g., if your SP would average 7 IP per start after four days off, but only 6 IP per start after three days off, in a 5-man rotation about 1/7 of his IP are these "last innings," while in a 4-man 1/6 of his IP will be "last innings."

However, this shouldn't make a difference to the team ERA. Either way, unless there's a complete game, there will be one of these last innings each game regardless of rotation size.

I want to emphasize again that I haven't seen any performance drop in th3 4-man, and I wouldn't trust it either way w/o a study. If you've ever run the same season ov3r a few times, even with injuries turned off, you've seen the huge range of results possible just by chance.

[Hammer755]

I use a 4-man rotation almost exclusively, and I really don't see any ill effects that the other responses claim. Admittedly I haven't done any long-term studies, but am basing this upon the several leagues I am in or have been in.

It appears to me that in OOTP4 there is no gradation of pitcher fatigue. He is either tired or rested, with no steps in between. It has been my experience that 3 days rest is ample time for a starter to go from tired to rested, even one with E starter's duration.

I use a 4-man rotation unless I have a 5th starter who won't be a dropoff from my other 4. A 4 man rotation simply gives more innings to your best pitchers. The only downside I can see from it is the increased opportunity for sustaining an injury.