Feels like cheating..base running decisions

[StyxNCa]

Being one of those who had been screaming for many versions to have the ability to make base running decisions during the game I was thrilled to see it in this version. However, I have noticed that a huge majority of the time, regardless of depth of hit or the strength of the OF's arm, (naturally I would only try to advance with only my fastest players), the result is an out. Now, when the choice is presented to me I just stop the runner. Feels like cheating but it would be foolish to advance knowing you're just giving up a runner.

[gpellis]

I've found quite the opposite. I'm overwhelmingly safe.

[StyxNCa]

Originally Posted by gpellis

I've found quite the opposite. I'm overwhelmingly safe.

Glad to hear it.

[ike121212]

This is an incredibly tough feature to balance. In real life, the third base coach can see the play and consider the risk/reward in a given situation. In game, you really have no idea if you have an 80% chance of taking the base or a 20% chance. There's much more to a play than simply the speed of the runner and arm strength of the fielder.

In 2008, runners took 4652 extra bases and were thrown out 818 times. Seems fair for the game to aim for 15% overall, but since you don't get the option to stay/go in 100% safe or out situations, your % should be significantly higher. I don't know what that number is, but 20-33% seems reasonable. It's definitely high enough to have some good or bad streaks.

[turdfurgeson]

Originally Posted by StyxNCa

Being one of those who had been screaming for many versions to have the ability to make base running decisions during the game I was thrilled to see it in this version. However, I have noticed that a huge majority of the time, regardless of depth of hit or the strength of the OF's arm, (naturally I would only try to advance with only my fastest players), the result is an out. Now, when the choice is presented to me I just stop the runner. Feels like cheating but it would be foolish to advance knowing you're just giving up a runner.

I have had the exact same experience.

[Qrusher14242]

yeah i never send them anymore. Every time the OF has a normal arm and he has normal speed i always get thrown out.

[Simmo13]

Originally Posted by gpellis

I've found quite the opposite. I'm overwhelmingly safe.

Same here

[Simmo13]

Originally Posted by Simmo13

Same here

Should add that it's a very small sample size...I've plaved out twenty of my teams games and had to make perhaps a half dozen base-running decisions.

[Captain Walrus]

Weird. I've never even considered holding the runner. I've never been thrown out!

[StyxNCa]

Originally Posted by Captain Walrus

Weird. I've never even considered holding the runner. I've never been thrown out!

Well I guess that offsets things that ave happened to me. In spring training we played 24 games. I was testing things so I tried to advance at least once in every game so there were a minimum of 24 attempts. Of those, 4 times were successful. I figured it was a spring training thing. However, when we got thrown out the first 4 times when regular season began I just quit trying. Maybe in games where it won't matter I'll try it again but for now I'll just play it safe. Besides, the batters farther back in the lineup appreciate the RBI's they're getting that thy never were able to get before.

[DCG12]

During the beta period I tested this aspect of the game in depth. I kept charts of runner speed, OF arm, ball location, safe/out etc. After having one stretch of 31 safe calls in a row I posted a thread to discuss it in the beta forum. I should also mention that originally the pop-up box came up on almost every base advance play which turned out to be annoying when you had it coming up 20 times a game. Markus posted that ,yes, 95% of runners were going to be safe. He thought this was a realistic number. Which it was if you are judging each and every baserunnig play in a game. Others of us thought that the pop-up should only come up when there was a chance that the runner was going to be out. In other words the "routine" first to third play should be handled by the computer. After much discussion Markus posted that he had tweaked it for the next build. No mention was made of how much he tweaked it but my feeling is that you still have a strong chance to be safe. Of course when you get thrown out at home in the ninth inning you tend to remember it more

[Killing Time]

Sample size, guys. Sample size.

[Afino]

Yeah, I've really not had a big enough sample size to make things worthwhile.

I use common sense to actually send the players and ask myself whether an MLB 3rd base coach would send them. If I see "the ball is very shallow and player X has a cannon for an arm", well, I'm not sending my catcher home from 3rd.

I've probably been thrown out 10% of the time using this very conservative strategy.

[spitfire]

Originally Posted by DCG12

During the beta period I tested this aspect of the game in depth.

Question for you then if I may ..... do the play by play descriptions give any clue about your safe/out chances (ie. a fly to the warning track would give you a better chance of being safe than a shallow fly), or is the PBP selection just random (ie. to the game an out is an out and it just picks a decription at random)? If the latter, is there any way to realistically estimate the chance the runner would be thrown out, or are you just guessing?

[findinghomer]

Originally Posted by gpellis

I've found quite the opposite. I'm overwhelmingly safe.

me too. in fact lately i have been deciding against it, thinking im do to get canned a ton. im about 5 for 6 so far in being safe. could it have anything to do with your coach ability??

[DCG12]

Originally Posted by spitfire

Question for you then if I may ..... do the play by play descriptions give any clue about your safe/out chances (ie. a fly to the warning track would give you a better chance of being safe than a shallow fly), or is the PBP selection just random (ie. to the game an out is an out and it just picks a decription at random)? If the latter, is there any way to realistically estimate the chance the runner would be thrown out, or are you just guessing?

Only Markus knows this for sure but my opinion and I stress this is just from my personal experience is that it doesn't play enough of a factor if at all.

One of the things I tracked when I was doing the beta was depth,speed and OF arm and pointed out in the same thread I mentioned above that too often the pbp would say the ball was shallow and Joe Outfielder has a cannon for an arm yet my catcher with 2 speed would tag up and be safe.

[StyxNCa]

Originally Posted by Killing Time

Sample size, guys. Sample size.

Sample sizes are fine when running tests but when actually playing a season where an out can cause a loss I'd prefer to just not try.

[Isura]

I've noticed since I switched to short PbP (9 games), the base runnning popup hasn't appeared yet. When exactly does it come up?

[Afino]

If you're on short PBP, you probably won't get it.

With Full Detail, you'll get it coming up as the runner rounds the base in the PBP.

I get it 1-2 times a game, which is a perfect amount.

[spitfire]

Originally Posted by DCG12

Only Markus knows this for sure but my opinion and I stress this is just from my personal experience is that it doesn't play enough of a factor if at all.

Thanks for the reply. Sounds like this is another feature that still needs some work. A deep fly should give you a much better chance of advancing than a shallow fly, all else being equal, but it doesn't sound like that's really the case right now. I'd hope that at some point the PBP will give you a real indication of how the play is unfolding, rather than being cosmetic. Diamond Mind for years has used the PBP as a way of giving info on the baserunning situation. Hopefully OOTP will go in that direction too.