Best way to transform a stud MR prospect into an MR?

Cole · 01-10-2011, 09:44 AM

I just drafted a 20-year-old, 10 9 9 potential MR, who out of the gate is already developed to the point of being a 9/8/5 MR and a 7/8/5 SP if you change his role to SP.

He currently only has two pitches, fastball and slider, both currently rated 9 out of a potential 10.

His stamina is 5.

Obviously my first thought is whether or not I can change this guy into an SP. From what I gather though, he'll need a third pitch or he won't be effective as a starter, is that correct?

What advice would someone give to try to get him to learn a third pitch? What about the possibility of getting his stamina to increase, is that possible?

Also, what level should I start him? He's obviously good enough to be a MR on my ML team already and probably could be an SP on the team, but is it safter to start him in AAA if I am going to be trying to develop him as an SP?

I am going to invite him to spring training and get him some starts there, maybe that will help? Anything else that can be done??

Basically, I don't want to screw this up, so any hints at all someone could give me on handling a talent like this would be great.

Thanks.

Green & Gold Heart · 01-10-2011, 09:58 AM

From my experience, a two-pitch pitcher can be an effective SP, but he will be wildly inconsistent.

I'd like to know how to get a guy to learn a third pitch as well, if it's possible.

RchW · 01-10-2011, 10:42 AM

Make sure he only starts in the Minors. Force it if necessary. As for learning a new pitch, don't know the answer. I suspect it is rare but possible in the randomness of player development.

I wouldn't put a 20 yr old in the majors. There's really no upside unless you are desperate for an arm.

Cole · 01-10-2011, 12:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RchW

I wouldn't put a 20 yr old in the majors. There's really no upside unless you are desperate for an arm.

Even if he is already developed enough to be a better player than a lot of my current ML pitchers?

Chicagofan76 · 01-10-2011, 12:59 PM

Depends, IRL Chris Sale (1st rd pick CWS) came up late yr and is slated to be either bullpen or closer in 2011. Might start someday. In OOTP I have had nothing but bad experiences trying to turn a 2 pitch pitcher into a SP. I tried turning my star closer with an STA of 8 (of 10) into a SP in 2003 he went 4-7 4.35 and missed the final 2 months of the sn while as a closer he is #2 in the ABF all time in saves. I have Montgomery Gentry at AA right now who has a STA of 6 trying to groom him into a SP, and while his starts r above avg, he is nowhere near ML ready after 3 sns.

falkonisback · 01-10-2011, 02:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chicagofan76

Depends, IRL Chris Sale (1st rd pick CWS) came up late yr and is slated to be either bullpen or closer in 2011. Might start someday. In OOTP I have had nothing but bad experiences trying to turn a 2 pitch pitcher into a SP. I tried turning my star closer with an STA of 8 (of 10) into a SP in 2003 he went 4-7 4.35 and missed the final 2 months of the sn while as a closer he is #2 in the ABF all time in saves. I have Montgomery Gentry at AA right now who has a STA of 6 trying to groom him into a SP, and while his starts r above avg, he is nowhere near ML ready after 3 sns.

LMAO...Montgomery Gentry...please tell me that you named him that??

endgame · 01-10-2011, 02:27 PM

If you can rationalize it, just edit his ratings and add a changeup at the lowest number. It still may be awhile before it increases, but when it does, he'll likely move into a role in the rotation or at least be considered for it. But it is the easiest way.

Think you already covered it, but his stamina needs to correspond to that role as well.

Cole · 01-10-2011, 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by endgame

If you can rationalize it, just edit his ratings and add a changeup at the lowest number. It still may be awhile before it increases, but when it does, he'll likely move into a role in the rotation or at least be considered for it. But it is the easiest way.

Think you already covered it, but his stamina needs to correspond to that role as well.

Not so easy. It's an online league

Biggio509 · 01-10-2011, 07:11 PM

From what I have read learning a third pitch or 4th pitch is completely random and somewhat rare. I have heard they are more likely to learn a third pitch in the low minors but have not seen any data to back that up.

Also note pitchers sometimes lose a pitch. Equally as rare but I did have a star starter who got a long term injury and was aging the next year he had one less pitch! So it is not impossible either way but it is not something you see a lot either.

RchW · 01-10-2011, 07:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ripwalk

Even if he is already developed enough to be a better player than a lot of my current ML pitchers?

In this game yes. Unlike real life (or maybe like it) there is pretty definitive evidence that promoting a player too soon will increase the chances of an early flameout. What you have to decide is the risk/reward benefit of getting 3-4 good/great seasons now vs 5-8 good/great seasons 3 years from now.

There is no definitive right answer.

rudoggy · 01-11-2011, 09:47 AM

Maybe i have been reading the wrong posts, but i have never seen "for sure" how you can push for a third pitch before. It seem like it really should be an option of sorts. Successful or not, as a pitching coach, you should be able to have some influence on young arms and guide them to their potential. It just shouldnt be random. I also do not like simply editing and adding a crappy changeup for a third pitch as you end up setting potential also, which means you are stating how he will end up(more or less), there is no randomness to that either.

Cole · 01-11-2011, 10:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rudoggy

Maybe i have been reading the wrong posts, but i have never seen "for sure" how you can push for a third pitch before. It seem like it really should be an option of sorts. Successful or not, as a pitching coach, you should be able to have some influence on young arms and guide them to their potential. It just shouldnt be random. I also do not like simply editing and adding a crappy changeup for a third pitch as you end up setting potential also, which means you are stating how he will end up(more or less), there is no randomness to that either.

Agree 100 per cent. It seems kind of dumb that you have to just do it blindly and hope for the best, whereas in real life if you drafted a stud MR that you wanted to convert to an SP you would be able to start pushing him towards learning new pitches, stretching out his stamina, etc etc.

RchW · 01-11-2011, 11:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ripwalk

Agree 100 per cent. It seems kind of dumb that you have to just do it blindly and hope for the best, whereas in real life if you drafted a stud MR that you wanted to convert to an SP you would be able to start pushing him towards learning new pitches, stretching out his stamina, etc etc.

I'm trying to think of a real life MR (College/HS) stud or not, who has converted to a starter. I'm sure there are some, but none come to mind. Consider that there are more relief pitcher slots than SP slots and many pitchers who can throw 3-4 pitches may choose to go with 1-2 as a ticket to MLB vs a career in the minors. To me IRL the process is reversed, starters become relievers way more often than MR become starters because the available pool shrinks with each advancement in level.

Markus cannot program the real life "natural selection" that occurs as (thousands of?) dominant pitchers, almost always starters, progress up the ladder in baseball. Minor changes, tweaks and injuries or opportunity, even being left handed will affect your chances of starting. What if you go to a good program where the team has 8-10 potential studs wanting to start? Somebody has to close games.

The result is that OOTP has already weeded out the starters from the relievers by draft day. It may not be ideal but I think it is just a limitation of the programming.

RonCo · 01-11-2011, 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RchW

The result is that OOTP has already weeded out the starters from the relievers by draft day. It may not be ideal but I think it is just a limitation of the programming.

My guess is that's it's a limitation of the AI model more than the player model. "Limitation," in this case, meaning it would be a heck of a lot of work to reprogram the AI to figure out how to use a role-less player model properly than Markus has been willing to bite off. Sooner or later it will happen, though. I would guess.

tejdog1 · 01-11-2011, 04:25 PM

I tried it with him, he ended up with a 5+ era as a SP in 2014. There really should be a way of telling a pitcher to work on a changeup/slider/curveball in the minor leagues. Granted, I didn't use him as a SP in the minors, but...if that option existed, I probably would have.

Pitchers learn pitches all the time. Jon Niese learned a cutter in 2008/2009, as an example.

Nutlaw · 01-11-2011, 05:36 PM

You can't force or even encourage a pitcher to learn a new pitch. It's random. Assume that all pitchers are trying out new pitches as they go, but only a few manage to develop one that is good enough to use in real games effectively.

Pitchers whose pitch ratings are exceptionally low may give up on their pitches.

Pitchers are slightly more likely to gain a bit stamina than a third pitch, so if you have to choose between a player with three pitches and somewhat low stamina or a player with two pitches and good stamina, I'd go with the former.

If a player's projected role in his current league is "Bullpen", I wouldn't even think of using him as a starter. It usually won't go well. "Borderline Starters", sure, can sometimes work out.

Not everyone can be a good starting pitcher. Lots of good relievers in real life can't cut it as starting pitchers. This is the mechanism used to reflect that.

Biggio509 · 01-11-2011, 06:12 PM

I am not so sure to always use a guy whose projected role is bullpen as a MR. I need more data but I have ran across a few guys with seemingly good potential ratings and 3 decent pitches who are for some reason being labeled as bullpen only. Either my scouts have been off or the label is there because the 3 pitches are horribly underdeveloped at their young age. I have used them as starters but the one's I am thinking of haven't been in the system long enough to see if they will ultimately be starters.

Perhaps game generation has it backwards. There should be a lot more guys who could start but fall short of quality of big league starters who become bullpen and fewer dedicated bull pen guys?

RonCo · 01-12-2011, 09:23 AM

What a concept.

Nutlaw · 01-12-2011, 05:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Biggio509

I am not so sure to always use a guy whose projected role is bullpen as a MR. I need more data but I have ran across a few guys with seemingly good potential ratings and 3 decent pitches who are for some reason being labeled as bullpen only. Either my scouts have been off or the label is there because the 3 pitches are horribly underdeveloped at their young age. I have used them as starters but the one's I am thinking of haven't been in the system long enough to see if they will ultimately be starters.

These players are rated as major league relievers or as relievers at their current level of play? If you are running a major league team, then the former will be the default view. If a prospect has good enough endurance and three pitches at whatever rating, by all means use him as a starter in the minors.

Biggio509 · 01-12-2011, 06:46 PM

I understand that but I was seeing guys with above average potential ratings and 3 above average pitches, potential, being labeled ML bullpen. Current ratings were no where near potential so I am just curious if current ratings either have something to do with the label or if my scout is just off. By all indications the guy should be a starter in the ML if he reaches his potential.

Here is an example.
Matt Davis
current pot
stuff 10 13
movement 15 16
control 6 12
sinker 15 16
curveball 9 12
slider 8 11
change up 4 10

Suggested role in ML strictly Bullpen

He looks like a potential starter to me borderline starter at worst. He has above average basic ratings and 3 slightly above average to above average pitches. The guy has a long way to go but if he gets there that should be good enough to start.

Is it possible that the determination is based on the league average SP? I really kind of screwed up this league by having 2X feeders than I needed so some that would be stars or near stars in other leagues are 2.5 or 3 star guys.

01-10-2011, 09:44 AM	#1
Cole Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Fredericton, New Brunswick Posts: 2,685	Best way to transform a stud MR prospect into an MR? I just drafted a 20-year-old, 10 9 9 potential MR, who out of the gate is already developed to the point of being a 9/8/5 MR and a 7/8/5 SP if you change his role to SP. He currently only has two pitches, fastball and slider, both currently rated 9 out of a potential 10. His stamina is 5. Obviously my first thought is whether or not I can change this guy into an SP. From what I gather though, he'll need a third pitch or he won't be effective as a starter, is that correct? What advice would someone give to try to get him to learn a third pitch? What about the possibility of getting his stamina to increase, is that possible? Also, what level should I start him? He's obviously good enough to be a MR on my ML team already and probably could be an SP on the team, but is it safter to start him in AAA if I am going to be trying to develop him as an SP? I am going to invite him to spring training and get him some starts there, maybe that will help? Anything else that can be done?? Basically, I don't want to screw this up, so any hints at all someone could give me on handling a talent like this would be great. Thanks.

01-10-2011, 10:42 AM	#3
RchW Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Toronto ON by way of Glasgow UK Posts: 15,629	Make sure he only starts in the Minors. Force it if necessary. As for learning a new pitch, don't know the answer. I suspect it is rare but possible in the randomness of player development. I wouldn't put a 20 yr old in the majors. There's really no upside unless you are desperate for an arm. __________________ Cheers RichW If you’re looking for a good cause to donate money to please consider a Donation to Parkinson’s Canada. It may help me have a better future and if not me, someone else. Thanks. “Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition …There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.” Frank Wilhoit Last edited by RchW; 01-10-2011 at 10:43 AM.

01-10-2011, 02:27 PM	#7
endgame Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 16,842	If you can rationalize it, just edit his ratings and add a changeup at the lowest number. It still may be awhile before it increases, but when it does, he'll likely move into a role in the rotation or at least be considered for it. But it is the easiest way. Think you already covered it, but his stamina needs to correspond to that role as well. __________________ "Try again. Fail again. Fail better." -- Samuel Beckett _____________________________________________

01-11-2011, 04:25 PM	#15
tejdog1 All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2010 Location: Danbury, CT Posts: 1,654	I tried it with him, he ended up with a 5+ era as a SP in 2014. There really should be a way of telling a pitcher to work on a changeup/slider/curveball in the minor leagues. Granted, I didn't use him as a SP in the minors, but...if that option existed, I probably would have. Pitchers learn pitches all the time. Jon Niese learned a cutter in 2008/2009, as an example. __________________ It's amazing How you make your face just like a wall How you take your heart and turn it off How I turn my head and lose it all And it's unnerving How just one move puts me by myself There you go just trusting someone else Now I know I put us both through hell ~Matchbox 20, "Leave" Everyone knows it's spelled "TRAID", not trade

01-12-2011, 06:46 PM	#20
Biggio509 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 2,027	I understand that but I was seeing guys with above average potential ratings and 3 above average pitches, potential, being labeled ML bullpen. Current ratings were no where near potential so I am just curious if current ratings either have something to do with the label or if my scout is just off. By all indications the guy should be a starter in the ML if he reaches his potential. Here is an example. Matt Davis current pot stuff 10 13 movement 15 16 control 6 12 sinker 15 16 curveball 9 12 slider 8 11 change up 4 10 Suggested role in ML strictly Bullpen He looks like a potential starter to me borderline starter at worst. He has above average basic ratings and 3 slightly above average to above average pitches. The guy has a long way to go but if he gets there that should be good enough to start. Is it possible that the determination is based on the league average SP? I really kind of screwed up this league by having 2X feeders than I needed so some that would be stars or near stars in other leagues are 2.5 or 3 star guys. Last edited by Biggio509; 01-12-2011 at 06:48 PM.

01-10-2011, 09:58 AM	#2
Green & Gold Heart Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: Wisconsin Posts: 5,242	From my experience, a two-pitch pitcher can be an effective SP, but he will be wildly inconsistent. I'd like to know how to get a guy to learn a third pitch as well, if it's possible.

01-10-2011, 12:59 PM	#5
Chicagofan76 Banned Join Date: Oct 2009 Location: Diamond, IL Posts: 6,339 Infractions: 2/2 (3)	Depends, IRL Chris Sale (1st rd pick CWS) came up late yr and is slated to be either bullpen or closer in 2011. Might start someday. In OOTP I have had nothing but bad experiences trying to turn a 2 pitch pitcher into a SP. I tried turning my star closer with an STA of 8 (of 10) into a SP in 2003 he went 4-7 4.35 and missed the final 2 months of the sn while as a closer he is #2 in the ABF all time in saves. I have Montgomery Gentry at AA right now who has a STA of 6 trying to groom him into a SP, and while his starts r above avg, he is nowhere near ML ready after 3 sns.

01-10-2011, 07:11 PM	#9
Biggio509 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 2,027	From what I have read learning a third pitch or 4th pitch is completely random and somewhat rare. I have heard they are more likely to learn a third pitch in the low minors but have not seen any data to back that up. Also note pitchers sometimes lose a pitch. Equally as rare but I did have a star starter who got a long term injury and was aging the next year he had one less pitch! So it is not impossible either way but it is not something you see a lot either.

01-11-2011, 09:47 AM	#11
rudoggy Major Leagues Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: In my own little world Posts: 430	Maybe i have been reading the wrong posts, but i have never seen "for sure" how you can push for a third pitch before. It seem like it really should be an option of sorts. Successful or not, as a pitching coach, you should be able to have some influence on young arms and guide them to their potential. It just shouldnt be random. I also do not like simply editing and adding a crappy changeup for a third pitch as you end up setting potential also, which means you are stating how he will end up(more or less), there is no randomness to that either.

01-11-2011, 05:36 PM	#16
Nutlaw Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 9,538	You can't force or even encourage a pitcher to learn a new pitch. It's random. Assume that all pitchers are trying out new pitches as they go, but only a few manage to develop one that is good enough to use in real games effectively. Pitchers whose pitch ratings are exceptionally low may give up on their pitches. Pitchers are slightly more likely to gain a bit stamina than a third pitch, so if you have to choose between a player with three pitches and somewhat low stamina or a player with two pitches and good stamina, I'd go with the former. If a player's projected role in his current league is "Bullpen", I wouldn't even think of using him as a starter. It usually won't go well. "Borderline Starters", sure, can sometimes work out. Not everyone can be a good starting pitcher. Lots of good relievers in real life can't cut it as starting pitchers. This is the mechanism used to reflect that.

01-11-2011, 06:12 PM	#17
Biggio509 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 2,027	I am not so sure to always use a guy whose projected role is bullpen as a MR. I need more data but I have ran across a few guys with seemingly good potential ratings and 3 decent pitches who are for some reason being labeled as bullpen only. Either my scouts have been off or the label is there because the 3 pitches are horribly underdeveloped at their young age. I have used them as starters but the one's I am thinking of haven't been in the system long enough to see if they will ultimately be starters. Perhaps game generation has it backwards. There should be a lot more guys who could start but fall short of quality of big league starters who become bullpen and fewer dedicated bull pen guys?

01-12-2011, 09:23 AM	#18
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 10,510	What a concept.