OOTP4 - (coaches + scouts) = no young stars

sixto · 11-20-2002, 11:20 AM

10th year of fictional league. W/O scouts, I had never had a BRILLIANT amateur and never more than 6-7 'Good' hitting prospects. 5-round draft and between 8-16 teams.

I fully understand and appreciate the importance of not overloading draft classes with talent. However, EVERY major-league draft in history has included at least a round or two of very good prospects, and the rest are good enough to be worth drafting.

Plus, without coaches on, even very good prospects are helpless for several years. Now they're on, and I guess I'll find out what the difference of having coaches on will be, but for now I have a league where most of the members of my Top 100 Prospects list are aged 23-25. Fact is those players are beyond prospect status. That list should be for youngsters.

When coaches are off, they either need to be set to higher than "average" ability, or we need to be able to set manually the level of coaching we want teams to receive. Down the road, my old hall of famers will almost all have started their careers around age 24, and most will have collapsed by age 38, meaning 15-year careers will be overwhelmingly common. Turning coaches and scouts off needs to be a useful option, as opposed to one with some serious warts. And I'm seeing a distinct lack of randomness in player aging.

As for the draft...if a prospect is not good, then who would draft him? Only someone who has to. This has had the ramifications of computer teams dropping 4th and 5th rd picks with regularity, not long after the draft.

After 10 seasons, I should have plenty of available AAA talent and some available stopgaps in the FA market. What I actually have is nearly empty AAA teams and no FA worth signing, even in desperate times. I have teams going with Ps in the OF rather than signing a 1-average FA. And yes, they have money.

Ya. So. Just some stuff to keep in mind.

spleen1015 · 11-20-2002, 11:39 AM

Can you give more details as to number of teams, divisions, leagues? How many games is your season?

Smellyface · 11-20-2002, 11:42 AM

This concerns me... since I am in year 3 of a career with coaches and scouts turned off. I have always played with coaches and scouts on before, but asked around on the message board and it seemed like people thought young players develop well enough without coaches and scouts.

Steve Kuffrey · 11-20-2002, 12:10 PM

In an online league w/ reduced ratings there are MANY w/ brilliant ratings and only in yr 3 no scouts, etc.

Smellyface · 11-20-2002, 12:53 PM

Thanks Steve, that is exactly what I wanted to hear.

TC Dale · 11-20-2002, 12:56 PM

I am doing a 100 yr league all with managing the same team, and I see brilliant players every draft. There aren't a lot of them, but there are enough to make me want to tank to get a couple....lol.

Maybe there is something else that is affecting it?

Yogi

Ben Music · 11-20-2002, 01:06 PM

Could league totals affect this kind of thing?

sixto · 11-20-2002, 01:13 PM

Well. I have no idea. Am I just very unlucky? I am surprised to hear I'm the only one experiencing this phenomenon.

For 8 seasons I had 1 league, 8-10 teams, different size drafts ranging from 5 rounds to I think 10, could be 15, usually 5. I ported my .dat files over to a 2-league org in the 9th season and am in my 2nd season with 16 teams. Financials were off until the 6th or 7th season, scouts and coaches off from the 2nd season to the 9th. I stocked the 2nd league with low-level players, to make it a lesser league. So really, FAs with low ratings should not have bothered them, if they were comparing their existing roster with available talent.

I would say it could have something with the fact that I'm playing on dead-ball league settings, except that players' ratings aren't suffering. There are still some rated for 10-12 power, even if they can barely manage 5-10 HR a season. (Edit: all such players are "created" players, not draftees. No draftee has gotten that high.)

There have been a few pitchers rated BRILLIANT in lesser categories, but not in the main ones. And there have been 2 pitchers who can truthfully be called great young talents. But not hitters. One hitter has developed topline power, i.e., an 8. Of course his average rating is 4. I'm getting a few new players hitting for average now - but they're 24, 25, 26, 27 years old.

The best that any amateur player has achieved in average rating in 10 years of drafting is 7(6/7). The ordinary talent progression is for players not to achieve higher than a 5 avg rating until they are 27+.

p.s. I forgot to mention that I did have my first brilliant-avg prospect in the 10th draft. But that could be my new scout's take. I'll keep watching and update you if circumstances should change.

Smellyface · 11-20-2002, 01:18 PM

Sixto, to me, what you're getting seems to reflect real life. It seems like a batter with Brilliant talent in average would have the potential to bat .400. In real life, there haven't been too many guys in the history of baseball with that kind of talent. Therefore it's a good thing that very few players are generated like that.

sixto · 11-20-2002, 01:24 PM

Well. For the great majority of players, I agree with you. However, my league has no Ty Cobbs, no Mickey Mantles, no Alex Rodriguezes.

To my knowledge there is only one Hall of Famer not affected by the color line who did not start his major-league career before age 25. (Any guesses?) Randy Johnson will be the second. And keep in mind that Randy Johnson is going strong at his age, while Mantle, Ken Griffey (maybe), and many other very young stars burned out earlier than expected. Players who blossom late often star late. Players who blossom early often end early. Though of course there are exceptions in both cases. Brady Anderson blossomed late and collapsed on time, etc.

The overwhelming majority of HOFers started their major-league careers at age 19-23.

spleen1015 · 11-20-2002, 01:31 PM

This as been discussed several times in the past. It has nothing to do with coaches and scouts. It's the way the game works whether they are on or not.

Scott Vibert · 11-20-2002, 01:43 PM

This guy was picked first overall in the 2003 draft in the league Steve mentions (OOL no coaches/no scouts enabled). He made his major league debut the next season at age 23.

http://www.ool.ootp-leagues.com/file...UESITE/270.htm

Same team same league only this player was picked first overall in the 2004 draft of that league. He made his major league debut the same year he was drafted at age 18.

http://www.ool.ootp-leagues.com/file...ESITE/1676.htm

I just grabbed the first position player and first pitcher I could find in this league, I know there are others, but these were the first non-initial draft, non-created via filling minors players I could find. (I wanted to make sure I was grabbing amateur draft examples so that they would more directly compare with your league)

LivnLegend · 11-20-2002, 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by sixto
To my knowledge there is only one Hall of Famer not affected by the color line who did not start his major-league career before age 25. (Any guesses?)

I am a sucker for baseball trivia!
Bob Lemon was 25 when he made his debut. Earl Averill was 27. More may come to mind if I think about it

sixto · 11-20-2002, 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by ScottVib
I just grabbed the first position player and first pitcher I could find in this league, I know there are others, but these were the first non-initial draft, non-created via filling minors players I could find. (I wanted to make sure I was grabbing amateur draft examples so that they would more directly compare with your league)

Thanks Scott. This is not a smear thread - these are issues my league is seeing, clearly you've got some alternate examples. Hopefully it's all valuable feedback.

My guess is the blowback from the early OOTP days when 18-year olds were making major-league teams routinely has swung the pendulum in the other direction a bit much for my taste. I do understand that trying to please everyone is a balancing act.

sixto · 11-20-2002, 01:54 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by LivnLegend
I am a sucker for baseball trivia!
Bob Lemon was 25 when he made his debut. Earl Averill was 27. More may come to mind if I think about it

This will turn out to be a minihijack, but I guess I set it up that way.

Aha! Bob Lemon is a trick, though not one I deliberately set up. He actually debuted as a hitter at age 20.

Earl Averill is one I did not know about. So there are at least 2 then.

LivnLegend · 11-20-2002, 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by sixto
This will turn out to be a minihijack, but I guess I set it up that way.

Aha! Bob Lemon is a trick, though not one I deliberately set up. He actually debuted as a hitter at age 20.

Earl Averill is one I did not know about. So there are at least 2 then.

You got me on Lemon!
Some more that come to mind: Jimmy Collins was a late bloomer. Jack Chesbro was almost 30(?) I think. Sam Rice is another.

edit - sorry about the "hijack" -- Like I said, I can't resist baseball trivia!

Smellyface · 11-20-2002, 02:24 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by ScottVib
This guy was picked first overall in the 2003 draft in the league Steve mentions (OOL no coaches/no scouts enabled). He made his major league debut the next season at age 23.

http://www.ool.ootp-leagues.com/file...UESITE/270.htm

WOWZERS... are young players like this more common in leagues with reduced ratings? I've never played with those before.. but I usually don't see guys that are that good making their debuts after only one year in the minors.

Scott Vibert · 11-20-2002, 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Smellyface
WOWZERS... are young players like this more common in leagues with reduced ratings? I've never played with those before.. but I usually don't see guys that are that good making their debuts after only one year in the minors.

Check the pitcher below him... he made his debut even quicker (after part of one year in the minors).

I don't believe that reduced ratings lead to any quicker development. Since the more recent patches these kind of developmental trends have occurred more frequently.

Additionally I've seen a lot more established players tail off more quickly at a younger age then they used to. Before players tended to be good until 38 before hitting a wall. Most players still are good almost to this age, but there is a bit more variability now. I had one pitcher hit the wall at 28, resulting in the most untradable contract this side of Manny Ramirez (and trust me I tried). I finally had to bit the bullet and take a 6.5 million dollar hit to get rid of the guy and free up some cap room. Of course his drop off did make for a nice article on the league message board. (The OOL True Baseball Story: Cory Porter)

CommishJoe · 11-20-2002, 04:13 PM

Can't forget the great Jim Morris of the Devil Rays !!

Smellyface · 11-20-2002, 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by CommishJoe
Can't forget the great Jim Morris of the Devil Rays !!

You mean Dennis Quaid, right?

11-20-2002, 11:20 AM	#1
sixto Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 2,277	OOTP4 - (coaches + scouts) = no young stars 10th year of fictional league. W/O scouts, I had never had a BRILLIANT amateur and never more than 6-7 'Good' hitting prospects. 5-round draft and between 8-16 teams. I fully understand and appreciate the importance of not overloading draft classes with talent. However, EVERY major-league draft in history has included at least a round or two of very good prospects, and the rest are good enough to be worth drafting. Plus, without coaches on, even very good prospects are helpless for several years. Now they're on, and I guess I'll find out what the difference of having coaches on will be, but for now I have a league where most of the members of my Top 100 Prospects list are aged 23-25. Fact is those players are beyond prospect status. That list should be for youngsters. When coaches are off, they either need to be set to higher than "average" ability, or we need to be able to set manually the level of coaching we want teams to receive. Down the road, my old hall of famers will almost all have started their careers around age 24, and most will have collapsed by age 38, meaning 15-year careers will be overwhelmingly common. Turning coaches and scouts off needs to be a useful option, as opposed to one with some serious warts. And I'm seeing a distinct lack of randomness in player aging. As for the draft...if a prospect is not good, then who would draft him? Only someone who has to. This has had the ramifications of computer teams dropping 4th and 5th rd picks with regularity, not long after the draft. After 10 seasons, I should have plenty of available AAA talent and some available stopgaps in the FA market. What I actually have is nearly empty AAA teams and no FA worth signing, even in desperate times. I have teams going with Ps in the OF rather than signing a 1-average FA. And yes, they have money. Ya. So. Just some stuff to keep in mind.

11-20-2002, 11:42 AM	#3
Smellyface Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Illinois Posts: 211	This concerns me... since I am in year 3 of a career with coaches and scouts turned off. I have always played with coaches and scouts on before, but asked around on the message board and it seemed like people thought young players develop well enough without coaches and scouts. __________________ Corked Bat Baseball League

11-20-2002, 12:10 PM	#4
Steve Kuffrey Administrator Join Date: Jul 1999 Location: S.E. TN - Georgia born and raised Posts: 17,036	In an online league w/ reduced ratings there are MANY w/ brilliant ratings and only in yr 3 no scouts, etc. __________________ Steve Kuffrey DABS Atlanta Braves - 2008 Eastern Division Champ *DBLC Atlanta Braves - 2011, 2014 East Division Champ, 2012, 2013 NL Wildcard Baseball Maelstrom-Montreal Expos-2013 Tourney winner, 2014 WC Team Sparky's League - Tampa Bay D'Rays Epicenter Baseball League - Astros 2014 The CBL Rewind - Phillies '95

11-20-2002, 12:53 PM	#5
Smellyface Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Illinois Posts: 211	Thanks Steve, that is exactly what I wanted to hear. __________________ Corked Bat Baseball League Last edited by Smellyface; 11-20-2002 at 12:56 PM.

11-20-2002, 01:06 PM	#7
Ben Music Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Minneapolis, MN Posts: 432	Could league totals affect this kind of thing? __________________

11-20-2002, 11:39 AM	#2
spleen1015 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2002 Posts: 6,011	Can you give more details as to number of teams, divisions, leagues? How many games is your season?

11-20-2002, 12:56 PM	#6
TC Dale Global Moderator Join Date: May 2002 Posts: 4,999	I am doing a 100 yr league all with managing the same team, and I see brilliant players every draft. There aren't a lot of them, but there are enough to make me want to tank to get a couple....lol. Maybe there is something else that is affecting it? Yogi

11-20-2002, 01:13 PM	#8
sixto Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 2,277	Well. I have no idea. Am I just very unlucky? I am surprised to hear I'm the only one experiencing this phenomenon. For 8 seasons I had 1 league, 8-10 teams, different size drafts ranging from 5 rounds to I think 10, could be 15, usually 5. I ported my .dat files over to a 2-league org in the 9th season and am in my 2nd season with 16 teams. Financials were off until the 6th or 7th season, scouts and coaches off from the 2nd season to the 9th. I stocked the 2nd league with low-level players, to make it a lesser league. So really, FAs with low ratings should not have bothered them, if they were comparing their existing roster with available talent. I would say it could have something with the fact that I'm playing on dead-ball league settings, except that players' ratings aren't suffering. There are still some rated for 10-12 power, even if they can barely manage 5-10 HR a season. (Edit: all such players are "created" players, not draftees. No draftee has gotten that high.) There have been a few pitchers rated BRILLIANT in lesser categories, but not in the main ones. And there have been 2 pitchers who can truthfully be called great young talents. But not hitters. One hitter has developed topline power, i.e., an 8. Of course his average rating is 4. I'm getting a few new players hitting for average now - but they're 24, 25, 26, 27 years old. The best that any amateur player has achieved in average rating in 10 years of drafting is 7(6/7). The ordinary talent progression is for players not to achieve higher than a 5 avg rating until they are 27+. p.s. I forgot to mention that I did have my first brilliant-avg prospect in the 10th draft. But that could be my new scout's take. I'll keep watching and update you if circumstances should change. Last edited by sixto; 11-20-2002 at 01:16 PM.

11-20-2002, 01:18 PM	#9
Smellyface Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Illinois Posts: 211	Sixto, to me, what you're getting seems to reflect real life. It seems like a batter with Brilliant talent in average would have the potential to bat .400. In real life, there haven't been too many guys in the history of baseball with that kind of talent. Therefore it's a good thing that very few players are generated like that. __________________ Corked Bat Baseball League

11-20-2002, 01:24 PM	#10
sixto Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 2,277	Well. For the great majority of players, I agree with you. However, my league has no Ty Cobbs, no Mickey Mantles, no Alex Rodriguezes. To my knowledge there is only one Hall of Famer not affected by the color line who did not start his major-league career before age 25. (Any guesses?) Randy Johnson will be the second. And keep in mind that Randy Johnson is going strong at his age, while Mantle, Ken Griffey (maybe), and many other very young stars burned out earlier than expected. Players who blossom late often star late. Players who blossom early often end early. Though of course there are exceptions in both cases. Brady Anderson blossomed late and collapsed on time, etc. The overwhelming majority of HOFers started their major-league careers at age 19-23.

11-20-2002, 01:31 PM	#11
spleen1015 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2002 Posts: 6,011	This as been discussed several times in the past. It has nothing to do with coaches and scouts. It's the way the game works whether they are on or not.

11-20-2002, 01:43 PM	#12
Scott Vibert Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: My Computer Posts: 8,275	This guy was picked first overall in the 2003 draft in the league Steve mentions (OOL no coaches/no scouts enabled). He made his major league debut the next season at age 23. http://www.ool.ootp-leagues.com/file...UESITE/270.htm Same team same league only this player was picked first overall in the 2004 draft of that league. He made his major league debut the same year he was drafted at age 18. http://www.ool.ootp-leagues.com/file...ESITE/1676.htm I just grabbed the first position player and first pitcher I could find in this league, I know there are others, but these were the first non-initial draft, non-created via filling minors players I could find. (I wanted to make sure I was grabbing amateur draft examples so that they would more directly compare with your league)

11-20-2002, 04:13 PM	#19
CommishJoe Global Moderator Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Minneapolis, MN Posts: 5,238	Can't forget the great Jim Morris of the Devil Rays !! __________________ Joe Success isn’t owned. It’s leased. And rent is due every day.