Tom Glavine: Countdown to 300

darkhorse · 06-28-2007, 11:32 AM

Glavine pitched six innings of one-hit, shutout ball to win #297 last night against the Cardinals putrid offense.

Only three mo' to go!!!

http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=270627121

ctorg · 06-28-2007, 01:57 PM

And the one hit came on a throw by David Wright that pulled Delgado off the bag (charged as a hit because it came on a very difficult play that few would have made).

darkhorse · 07-15-2007, 03:53 PM

Glavine pitches another brilliant game on Saturday to earn his 298th victory.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=270714121

8 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 5 K.

8-6, 4.15 ERA on the season.

Scoman · 07-16-2007, 10:20 PM

Awesome career for Glavine,it would appear that this could be the last 300 game winner we might see for some time,unless R. Johnson can pull it out.

Dagrims · 07-16-2007, 10:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scoman

Awesome career for Glavine,it would appear that this could be the last 300 game winner we might see for some time,unless R. Johnson can pull it out.

Pedro has an extremely outside shot, but he'd have to somehow remain healthy for another six or seven years to have any chance. After him, there really is no one who is anywhere close to that mark. Guys like Sabathia, Oswalt, Mulder and Santana will have to have great seasons for the next dozen years to even have a shot at 250 victories.

Zoso1515 · 07-17-2007, 08:49 AM

Oswalt will be 30 in a month.

Russ · 07-17-2007, 09:14 AM

Mussina has an outside shot too, albeit small.

darkhorse · 07-17-2007, 10:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scoman

Awesome career for Glavine,it would appear that this could be the last 300 game winner we might see for some time,unless R. Johnson can pull it out.

I'd be very surprised if the Big Unit doesn't clear the bar. Ditto for Mike Mussina. Pedro is almost a sure thing if the arm doesn't fall off.

The 300 game winner is far from an extinct species.

mlyons · 07-17-2007, 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkhorse

I'd be very surprised if the Big Unit doesn't clear the bar. Ditto for Mike Mussina. Pedro is almost a sure thing if the arm doesn't fall off.

The 300 game winner is far from an extinct species.

After that, though, it'll be a long time. Nobody under the age of 35 is even halfway there.

darkhorse · 07-17-2007, 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mlyons

After that, though, it'll be a long time. Nobody under the age of 35 is even halfway there.

There are only 22 of them all-time, spanning 137 seasons, so they've never been common. We've just been blessed to see some of the all-time greats in the last 30 years, 8 from the list come from this era, and have gotten spoiled.

jeheinz72 · 07-17-2007, 10:41 AM

Hudson might have a shot, or at least, if Pedro has a shot (36 at end of year, 204 Wins, hurt right now) then Hudson does (32, 128, not hurt to my knowledge).

Zito might if A) He wasn't sucking right now and B) He didn't pitch for the offensively inept Giants.

What about Buerhle? 103 and just turned 28 at the beginning of the season.

Longshots I know, but possibilities..

Rasmuth · 07-17-2007, 10:52 AM

Randy Johnson might make it...and I don't believe we'll see another 300 game winner for a long, long time...maybe no-one who is currently in the big-leagues.

darkhorse · 07-17-2007, 10:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rasmuth

Randy Johnson might make it...and I don't believe we'll see another 300 game winner for a long, long time...maybe no-one who is currently in the big-leagues.

I'll take that bet.

mlyons · 07-17-2007, 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkhorse

There are only 22 of them all-time, spanning 137 seasons, so they've never been common. We've just been blessed to see some of the all-time greats in the last 30 years, 8 from the list come from this era, and have gotten spoiled.

22 in 137 seasons breaks down to about one every six seasons. For most of that time, about half as many players were playing, so you'd expect to see it more frequently than that right now, if anything. 8 in 30 years isn't at all out of line with what you'd expect. I doubt we'll see 4 in the next 15, though.

darkhorse · 07-17-2007, 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mlyons

22 in 137 seasons breaks down to about one every six seasons. For most of that time, about half as many players were playing, so you'd expect to see it more frequently than that right now, if anything. 8 in 30 years isn't at all out of line with what you'd expect.

I doubt we'll see 4 in the next 15, though.

With Glavine due up shortly and the Big Unit 16 away, that would be 10 of the 23 300 game winners coming from the last 30 years. Mussina and Pedro seem likely to expand that list again.

I'm not not very doubftul.

mlyons · 07-17-2007, 12:17 PM

I think you're overestimating Mussina's chances. He's 38, 57 wins away, and declining. He'd have to be extremely lucky to make it within the next four years, and I'd be surprised to see him play beyond that.

darkhorse · 07-17-2007, 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mlyons

I think you're overestimating Mussina's chances. He's 38, 57 wins away, and declining. He'd have to be extremely lucky to make it within the next four years, and I'd be surprised to see him play beyond that.

Mussina's not a normal pitcher and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him pitch into his mid 40's. Though, I don't think it will take that long.

mlyons · 07-17-2007, 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkhorse

Mussina's not a normal pitcher and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him pitch into his mid 40's. Though, I don't think it will take that long.

He's nowhere close to the pitcher he was four years ago. You're looking at him as if he was. All of his peripherals have been in decline, and there's no reason to think they won't continue to do so.

Rasmuth · 07-17-2007, 09:52 PM

Mussina is nowhere near the pitcher he was even last season...

Don't get me wrong...I've been a Moose fan since he was in high school (I lived in the same town) but he has lost it this year. He can't go deep in games anymore and he leaves too many balls in the prime hitting zones...makes way too many mistakes...he no longer seems to have the stuff to overcome mistakes.

(ironically this appears to be the same kind of decline many complain about in OOTP....the rapid loss of ability and results)

Can he recover from this? I hope so, maybe its mental but I believe he simply has declined to the point where he won't be more than a .500 pitcher, at best.

I'm afraid he will always be remembered as the best pitcher of his generation, NOT to win a Cy Young Award.

darkhorse · 07-19-2007, 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mlyons

He's nowhere close to the pitcher he was four years ago. You're looking at him as if he was. All of his peripherals have been in decline, and there's no reason to think they won't continue to do so.

Pffft.

Mussina's K and W rates for the last five seasons.

2003 7.7/1.5
2004 6.6/1.8
2005 7.0/2.2
2006 7.5/1.3
2007 5.3/1.7

His K rate is down this season. It looks more like an off year than any trend for this future HOF'er and 300 game winner.

06-28-2007, 11:32 AM	#1
darkhorse Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2002 Location: fort worth, tx Posts: 10,850	Tom Glavine: Countdown to 300 Glavine pitched six innings of one-hit, shutout ball to win #297 last night against the Cardinals putrid offense. Only three mo' to go!!! http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=270627121 __________________ "The Human Torch was denied a bank loan."

07-15-2007, 03:53 PM	#3
darkhorse Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2002 Location: fort worth, tx Posts: 10,850	Glavine pitches another brilliant game on Saturday to earn his 298th victory. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=270714121 8 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 5 K. 8-6, 4.15 ERA on the season. __________________ "The Human Torch was denied a bank loan."

07-17-2007, 09:14 AM	#7
Russ All Star Starter Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Essex HON! Posts: 1,923 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	Mussina has an outside shot too, albeit small. __________________ If you don't love Russ, you don't love America. This post brought to you by Carl's Jr.

07-17-2007, 10:41 AM	#11
jeheinz72 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Fresno, CA Posts: 2,164	Hudson might have a shot, or at least, if Pedro has a shot (36 at end of year, 204 Wins, hurt right now) then Hudson does (32, 128, not hurt to my knowledge). Zito might if A) He wasn't sucking right now and B) He didn't pitch for the offensively inept Giants. What about Buerhle? 103 and just turned 28 at the beginning of the season. Longshots I know, but possibilities.. __________________ Join The Dugout!

07-17-2007, 10:52 AM	#12
Rasmuth All Star Starter Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Upstate Western NY Posts: 1,760	Randy Johnson might make it...and I don't believe we'll see another 300 game winner for a long, long time...maybe no-one who is currently in the big-leagues. __________________ http://www.soundclick.com/bands/defa...?bandID=250426

06-28-2007, 01:57 PM	#2
ctorg Global Moderator Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Queens, NY Posts: 9,848	And the one hit came on a throw by David Wright that pulled Delgado off the bag (charged as a hit because it came on a very difficult play that few would have made). __________________ My music "When the trees blow back and forth, that's what makes the wind." - Steven Wright Fjord emena pancreas thorax fornicate marmalade morpheme proteolysis smaxa cabana offal srue vitriol grope hallelujah lentils

07-16-2007, 10:20 PM	#4
Scoman All Star Starter Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: heath ohio Posts: 1,837	Awesome career for Glavine,it would appear that this could be the last 300 game winner we might see for some time,unless R. Johnson can pull it out.

07-17-2007, 08:49 AM	#6
Zoso1515 Banned Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 507 Infractions: 0/2 (2)	Oswalt will be 30 in a month.

07-17-2007, 12:17 PM	#16
mlyons Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Philadelphia Posts: 3,725	I think you're overestimating Mussina's chances. He's 38, 57 wins away, and declining. He'd have to be extremely lucky to make it within the next four years, and I'd be surprised to see him play beyond that. __________________ Things can always be worse.

07-17-2007, 09:52 PM	#19
Rasmuth All Star Starter Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Upstate Western NY Posts: 1,760	Mussina is nowhere near the pitcher he was even last season... Don't get me wrong...I've been a Moose fan since he was in high school (I lived in the same town) but he has lost it this year. He can't go deep in games anymore and he leaves too many balls in the prime hitting zones...makes way too many mistakes...he no longer seems to have the stuff to overcome mistakes. (ironically this appears to be the same kind of decline many complain about in OOTP....the rapid loss of ability and results) Can he recover from this? I hope so, maybe its mental but I believe he simply has declined to the point where he won't be more than a .500 pitcher, at best. I'm afraid he will always be remembered as the best pitcher of his generation, NOT to win a Cy Young Award. __________________ http://www.soundclick.com/bands/defa...?bandID=250426 Last edited by Rasmuth; 07-17-2007 at 09:54 PM.