Era calculator...

JimServo · 08-05-2002, 01:15 PM

For some reason or another I have been having alot of trouble lately trying to get accurate historical results. A question: When using the ERA calculator, how many times have you had to run through the seasons to get the numbers close to right.

Using the calculator's totals, I have noticed that totals seemed to "jump around" alot. If I increase homers by say 10% (by lowering it by 10%), it increases dramatically (much more then 10%). The same thing takes place with batting averages. I have seen the same problems when I have done my own calculations.

Strangely, this has only been a problem as of very recently, and in the past I have been able to get leagues going with results very close to real life (when I did my own calculations). Also the ERA calculator seemed to be doing a pretty good job before in nailing it in the first try (within 5 to 8%), but as an example, on the first try of a starting league in 1904, the league AVG was .224, as opposed to the real average of .247 or so.

Henry · 08-05-2002, 03:56 PM

Jim,

Yep - your right

Actually, the Era Calculator will sometimes hit within a few rounds, and other times it takes awhile... even had some cases I had to "settle for something" since it wouldn't close in on a result.

My guess is this happened as a result of the previous season results it had to work with. Not understanding entirely how IatricSB works his magic, I can at least confirm I've seen the same results from time to time.

I can (I think) answer a few things... like changing one item and seeing a larger change somewhere else. Start off by reading my tutorial on ballpark factors (@ BigCityBaseball). In that article you will find that changes to the "AVG" factor effects doubles, triples, and homeruns - and as a result, also pitchers ERA. Makes sense. A 10% increase in AVG will require some kind of increase in multi-base hits. Whether or not those increases are "compatable" with the target you have in mind is problematic. I believe there is a similar relationship with the League Era settings. In additon, the entire "raise to lower" and lower to raise" pattern of the scheme makes it even harder to explain. I've found myself using "trail-and-error" methods that I wasn't entirely happy with.

Ok - so what's one to do ??

Also take a look at the documents at BigCityBaseball that have League Era settings for both historical and fictional leagues. The guys that put those together have worked through these issues and cam up with good numbers. I've used them myself in multiple leagues and I certainly can't complain (except for maybe triples in the deadball Era).

I hope this helps - good luck

Nukester · 08-05-2002, 04:58 PM

I would say that, on an average, I run the ERACalc about 8 times or so for each year. Sometimes much less, sometimes a few more (before I just go with it).

Since I play mostly in the Deadball Era (someday Ill continue my league past this era....), I've noticed that the major variances are in HR's and 3B's, which both have very low totals in the League Setup screen. Say, if I have HR's set to 1000 and the ERACalc says my HR sim totals were at 1.10, instead of changing my HR totals to 1100 (1000 plus 10%), I usually cut the percentage off to about 3/4 of that, so I would change the above to 1075 instead of 1100. This seems to stop the over/under variances a bit.

After running it enough times, I can usually get to within 3% or so of the actual stats.

GForce22 · 08-05-2002, 05:13 PM

hypothetically speaking...

If I wanted to take all-time rosters for each franchise and play them so that guys would put up 70s//80's style numbers, could I do so.

I would be ratings players to normalize them for era on my own. But would I then just take the era calculator and enter figures fitting the 80's? Or is it more complicated than that?

Again...this is hypothetical

GH

JimServo · 08-05-2002, 05:42 PM

Thanks guys

08-05-2002, 01:15 PM	#1
JimServo Major Leagues Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Near Philadelphia, PA Posts: 418	Era calculator... For some reason or another I have been having alot of trouble lately trying to get accurate historical results. A question: When using the ERA calculator, how many times have you had to run through the seasons to get the numbers close to right. Using the calculator's totals, I have noticed that totals seemed to "jump around" alot. If I increase homers by say 10% (by lowering it by 10%), it increases dramatically (much more then 10%). The same thing takes place with batting averages. I have seen the same problems when I have done my own calculations. Strangely, this has only been a problem as of very recently, and in the past I have been able to get leagues going with results very close to real life (when I did my own calculations). Also the ERA calculator seemed to be doing a pretty good job before in nailing it in the first try (within 5 to 8%), but as an example, on the first try of a starting league in 1904, the league AVG was .224, as opposed to the real average of .247 or so. __________________ "When I was a small boy in Kansas, a friend of mine and I went fishing and as we sat there in the warmth of the summer afternoon on a river bank, we talked about what we wanted to do when we grew up. I told him that I wanted to be a real major league baseball player, a genuine professional like Honus Wagner. My friend said that he'd like to be President of the United States. Neither of us got our wish." -Dwight D. Eisenhower Last edited by JimServo; 08-05-2002 at 02:23 PM.

08-05-2002, 05:42 PM	#5
JimServo Major Leagues Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Near Philadelphia, PA Posts: 418	Thanks guys __________________ "When I was a small boy in Kansas, a friend of mine and I went fishing and as we sat there in the warmth of the summer afternoon on a river bank, we talked about what we wanted to do when we grew up. I told him that I wanted to be a real major league baseball player, a genuine professional like Honus Wagner. My friend said that he'd like to be President of the United States. Neither of us got our wish." -Dwight D. Eisenhower

08-05-2002, 03:56 PM	#2
Henry Hall of Fame Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 6,498	Jim, Yep - your right Actually, the Era Calculator will sometimes hit within a few rounds, and other times it takes awhile... even had some cases I had to "settle for something" since it wouldn't close in on a result. My guess is this happened as a result of the previous season results it had to work with. Not understanding entirely how IatricSB works his magic, I can at least confirm I've seen the same results from time to time. I can (I think) answer a few things... like changing one item and seeing a larger change somewhere else. Start off by reading my tutorial on ballpark factors (@ BigCityBaseball). In that article you will find that changes to the "AVG" factor effects doubles, triples, and homeruns - and as a result, also pitchers ERA. Makes sense. A 10% increase in AVG will require some kind of increase in multi-base hits. Whether or not those increases are "compatable" with the target you have in mind is problematic. I believe there is a similar relationship with the League Era settings. In additon, the entire "raise to lower" and lower to raise" pattern of the scheme makes it even harder to explain. I've found myself using "trail-and-error" methods that I wasn't entirely happy with. Ok - so what's one to do ?? Also take a look at the documents at BigCityBaseball that have League Era settings for both historical and fictional leagues. The guys that put those together have worked through these issues and cam up with good numbers. I've used them myself in multiple leagues and I certainly can't complain (except for maybe triples in the deadball Era). I hope this helps - good luck

08-05-2002, 04:58 PM	#3
Nukester All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Newburgh, NY Posts: 1,923	I would say that, on an average, I run the ERACalc about 8 times or so for each year. Sometimes much less, sometimes a few more (before I just go with it). Since I play mostly in the Deadball Era (someday Ill continue my league past this era....), I've noticed that the major variances are in HR's and 3B's, which both have very low totals in the League Setup screen. Say, if I have HR's set to 1000 and the ERACalc says my HR sim totals were at 1.10, instead of changing my HR totals to 1100 (1000 plus 10%), I usually cut the percentage off to about 3/4 of that, so I would change the above to 1075 instead of 1100. This seems to stop the over/under variances a bit. After running it enough times, I can usually get to within 3% or so of the actual stats.

08-05-2002, 05:13 PM	#4
GForce22 Banned Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Long Island, NY Posts: 2,654	hypothetically speaking... If I wanted to take all-time rosters for each franchise and play them so that guys would put up 70s//80's style numbers, could I do so. I would be ratings players to normalize them for era on my own. But would I then just take the era calculator and enter figures fitting the 80's? Or is it more complicated than that? Again...this is hypothetical GH