Negro Leagues, Equivalencies, and other random thoughts.

jarmenia · 05-02-2006, 06:11 AM

I got up early because I couldn't sleep so I decided to share some thoughts with you folks to see how you plan on handling certain situations. For the record, I typically play fictional leagues that mirror history based on team, division, relocations, and additions. I also like to leave the league totals alone once I get my stats to reflect my type of baseball. This allows me to have "true" records after 100 years of simming as opposed to "artificially" boosting certain decades to produce records. I know this is not realistic, but boy does it make it exciting to see someone approaching a 100 year old record knowing he's not "helped" in any way other than his skills.

Now on to my questions:

1) I'd like to have the Negro leagues around for their part of my reply. Since the Major Leagues were diluted because of segregation I'd like the Major League equivalency to reflect the time of diluted talent. Does anyone have any thoughts on how to calculate the MLE based on real life stats? How about for determining MLE for foreign leagues? I’d rather not leave this up to guestimation.

2) Aging curves. Has anyone read if these have been fixed to reflect real life curves in terms of player decline? Will there still be the 35 - 36 "death" years? In the past I've found playing with the modifiers only affected what age the huge drop in skill came rather than adjusting the slope of the decline.

bababui · 05-02-2006, 06:17 AM

Or how bout just merging the NLs into the MLB to fix an injustice?

jarmenia · 05-02-2006, 06:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bababui

Or how bout just merging the NLs into the MLB to fix an injustice?

I've done this ever since I started playing OOTP. Now that I have the ability to simulate multiple leagues, I'd like to take advantage of it and follow history a little more.

bababui · 05-02-2006, 06:26 AM

That sounds really cool..and a lot of work! Hipefully OOTP2006 will be a little easier to manipulate that 6.51

Joshv02 · 05-02-2006, 07:19 AM

Completely misread the post! Apologies.

spark240 · 05-02-2006, 09:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jarmenia

...Since the Major Leagues were diluted because of segregation I'd like the Major League equivalency to reflect the time of diluted talent...

What happens if the "highest" league in the world has an equivalency less than 1? Presumably it could be adjusted up to 1 over time. (I'm thinking of the WW2 era "majors," which were of course diluted by both segregation and the war. Suppose I want to start my world during the war years.) Or is there always a "reference" league of equivalency 1?

Related thought: Can we set equivalencies ABOVE 1? Suppose I want to chart a course of history in which a previously "minor" league grows to become the de facto highest-level league of its world, outstripping a previous major which was set to 1? Or would I have to plan for this ahead of time by setting both leagues below 1 to start, and adjusting both over time?

Cras · 05-02-2006, 09:40 AM

I would not say the Majors were "diluted" because the the Negro Leagues or the the great wars. They certainly were deprived of talent because of those, but "diluted" is more a word I would use to describe today's game.

spark240 · 05-02-2006, 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cras

I would not say the Majors were "diluted" because the the Negro Leagues or the the great wars. They certainly were deprived of talent because of those, but "diluted" is more a word I would use to describe today's game.

I think we're using "diluted" to mean, not-the-highest-possible-concentration of baseball talent, given that some portion of the top-level talent was unavailable for various reasons. It seems like a reasonable usage to me, but I'm open to suggestions for any better one-word descriptors.

And, BTW, if you look at the ratios of active MLB players to population (total theoretical talent pool), an argument can be made that today's game (with 30 MLB teams, or even an expansion to 32!) is the MOST concentrated ever. But that discussion probably belongs in another thread.

Cras · 05-02-2006, 10:09 AM

How about "deprived"? That is what the segregation really lead to, that the Majors were deprived of some good talent.

And the reason I say today's game is diluted is because you now have RFs who cant throw the ball, 2Bs who cant field, tons of 1Bs who can't, a ton of mediocre hitters, and more mediocre pitchers. This could be because there are too many teams, or that could also be due to an over emphasis on power. But you are right, this is for a different thread.

Mike Donlin · 05-02-2006, 11:07 AM

Anyhow, how *does* one figure MLEs?

I've always wondered this in terms of Baseball Prospectus, too. I imagine the formula involves identifying players who played in both leagues in the course of a season and comparing their performance.

But how does one do this in the context of the Negro Leagues, where there was, by definition, no crossover?

Gorilla Shakespeare · 05-02-2006, 12:03 PM

1. Guesswork. MLEs are in some cases as much an art as a science. Especially when it comes to the Negro Leagues, which were often 4 parts baseball mixed with 1 part the WWE.

2. Although major leaguers rarely played in the Negro Leagues and vice versa, Negro Leaguers did play in the Mexican League or the Cuban leagues along with white players who had major or minor league careers. It's a couple degrees of separation away so it's not perfect, but you can still make some assumptions.

jarmenia · 05-02-2006, 02:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spark240

What happens if the "highest" league in the world has an equivalency less than 1? Presumably it could be adjusted up to 1 over time. (I'm thinking of the WW2 era "majors," which were of course diluted by both segregation and the war. Suppose I want to start my world during the war years.) Or is there always a "reference" league of equivalency 1?

Related thought: Can we set equivalencies ABOVE 1? Suppose I want to chart a course of history in which a previously "minor" league grows to become the de facto highest-level league of its world, outstripping a previous major which was set to 1? Or would I have to plan for this ahead of time by setting both leagues below 1 to start, and adjusting both over time?

I guess this was my question. Can the highest league in the world have an equivlency less than 1?

jarmenia · 05-02-2006, 02:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gorilla Shakespeare

1. Guesswork. MLEs are in some cases as much an art as a science. Especially when it comes to the Negro Leagues, which were often 4 parts baseball mixed with 1 part the WWE.

2. Although major leaguers rarely played in the Negro Leagues and vice versa, Negro Leaguers did play in the Mexican League or the Cuban leagues along with white players who had major or minor league careers. It's a couple degrees of separation away so it's not perfect, but you can still make some assumptions.

Showing my lack of knowledge about the Negro Leagues in general (one of the reasons I want to do this), would it be possible to compare the NLs of the time to the MLs and base the equivlency on that or were the games played with two totally different styles?

kagnew35 · 05-02-2006, 02:20 PM

Seems to me that arod/garlon's new database will address many of these questions. They have added 50 Negro League Players by cloning them form HOFers who were similar in type and talent level. They have also added the war years by averaging 3 years before and after lost years for players who served in armed forces. Looks to me to be the ULTIMATE database for historical players.

jarmenia · 05-02-2006, 03:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kagnew35

Seems to me that arod/garlon's new database will address many of these questions. They have added 50 Negro League Players by cloning them form HOFers who were similar in type and talent level. They have also added the war years by averaging 3 years before and after lost years for players who served in armed forces. Looks to me to be the ULTIMATE database for historical players.

Except I don't use real players, so I want to be able to adjust this with the equvilency ratings. I'm guessing I can but not sure.

KWhit · 05-02-2006, 03:20 PM

Instead of making MLB's equivilency to a value below 1, why not make the MLB and Negro League equivilency values both be 1. That would naturally "dilute" the talent of MLB because of all the superstars in the Negro Leagues that conceivably could be playing in MLB and replacing the mid-level and lower players who round out the MLB rosters.

Gorilla Shakespeare · 05-02-2006, 03:35 PM

Another question about equivalencies: will the computer occasionally create really good players, even in lower-equivalent leagues? One of the ways you can tell, in fact, that MLB of the past was inferior to MLB of today (or at least the recent, pre-chemical past) is the way guys like Honus Wagner absolutely dominated the game. Even taking Bonds into account, there was a greater discrepancy between the average player and the superstar in 1901 than there is now. The game, of course, has not recreated that, but maybe with equivalencies it will ... ?

Bluenoser · 05-02-2006, 05:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kagnew35

Seems to me that arod/garlon's new database will address many of these questions. They have added 50 Negro League Players by cloning them form HOFers who were similar in type and talent level. They have also added the war years by averaging 3 years before and after lost years for players who served in armed forces. Looks to me to be the ULTIMATE database for historical players.

In some senses it will be a very good DB for historical users, in others it won't. If you want to have the Negro Leagues as a sperate league altogether, than a DB that has NL players mixed in with MLB players isn't really going to do you any good.

I think the new version is going require a lot of experimenting with different DB's before finding exactly what you want.

05-02-2006, 06:11 AM	#1
jarmenia Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Tampa, FL USA Posts: 4,503	Negro Leagues, Equivalencies, and other random thoughts. I got up early because I couldn't sleep so I decided to share some thoughts with you folks to see how you plan on handling certain situations. For the record, I typically play fictional leagues that mirror history based on team, division, relocations, and additions. I also like to leave the league totals alone once I get my stats to reflect my type of baseball. This allows me to have "true" records after 100 years of simming as opposed to "artificially" boosting certain decades to produce records. I know this is not realistic, but boy does it make it exciting to see someone approaching a 100 year old record knowing he's not "helped" in any way other than his skills. Now on to my questions: 1) I'd like to have the Negro leagues around for their part of my reply. Since the Major Leagues were diluted because of segregation I'd like the Major League equivalency to reflect the time of diluted talent. Does anyone have any thoughts on how to calculate the MLE based on real life stats? How about for determining MLE for foreign leagues? I’d rather not leave this up to guestimation. 2) Aging curves. Has anyone read if these have been fixed to reflect real life curves in terms of player decline? Will there still be the 35 - 36 "death" years? In the past I've found playing with the modifiers only affected what age the huge drop in skill came rather than adjusting the slope of the decline. __________________ When is good enough, good enough?

05-02-2006, 07:19 AM	#5
Joshv02 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: , " Posts: 3,082	Completely misread the post! Apologies. __________________ Brookline Maccabees. RIP Last edited by Joshv02; 05-02-2006 at 07:25 AM.

05-02-2006, 09:40 AM	#7
Cras Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: LEO Posts: 3,789	I would not say the Majors were "diluted" because the the Negro Leagues or the the great wars. They certainly were deprived of talent because of those, but "diluted" is more a word I would use to describe today's game. __________________ The Chicago White Sox 1906, 1917, 2005 World Series Champions 1900, 1901, 1906, 1917, 1919, 1959, 2005 American League Champions 2000, 2005, 2008 American League Central Division Champions 1983, 1993 American League West Division Champions OOTP \| Orbiter \| SSMS \| FSX \| LoL \| MLP:FIM!

05-02-2006, 10:09 AM	#9
Cras Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: LEO Posts: 3,789	How about "deprived"? That is what the segregation really lead to, that the Majors were deprived of some good talent. And the reason I say today's game is diluted is because you now have RFs who cant throw the ball, 2Bs who cant field, tons of 1Bs who can't, a ton of mediocre hitters, and more mediocre pitchers. This could be because there are too many teams, or that could also be due to an over emphasis on power. But you are right, this is for a different thread. __________________ The Chicago White Sox 1906, 1917, 2005 World Series Champions 1900, 1901, 1906, 1917, 1919, 1959, 2005 American League Champions 2000, 2005, 2008 American League Central Division Champions 1983, 1993 American League West Division Champions OOTP \| Orbiter \| SSMS \| FSX \| LoL \| MLP:FIM!

05-02-2006, 02:20 PM	#14
kagnew35 All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Las Vegas, Nev Posts: 1,965	database Seems to me that arod/garlon's new database will address many of these questions. They have added 50 Negro League Players by cloning them form HOFers who were similar in type and talent level. They have also added the war years by averaging 3 years before and after lost years for players who served in armed forces. Looks to me to be the ULTIMATE database for historical players. __________________ Elder Statesman of the Board http://www.soxxcountry.com/ site with FaceGen Central and Duffys Tavern Live OOTP Chat Room

05-02-2006, 06:17 AM	#2
bababui Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Los Angeles Posts: 14,147 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	Or how bout just merging the NLs into the MLB to fix an injustice?

05-02-2006, 06:26 AM	#4
bababui Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Los Angeles Posts: 14,147 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	That sounds really cool..and a lot of work! Hipefully OOTP2006 will be a little easier to manipulate that 6.51

05-02-2006, 11:07 AM	#10
Mike Donlin All Star Reserve Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Life, friends, is boring. Posts: 840	Anyhow, how does one figure MLEs? I've always wondered this in terms of Baseball Prospectus, too. I imagine the formula involves identifying players who played in both leagues in the course of a season and comparing their performance. But how does one do this in the context of the Negro Leagues, where there was, by definition, no crossover?

05-02-2006, 12:03 PM	#11
Gorilla Shakespeare Banned Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 405	1. Guesswork. MLEs are in some cases as much an art as a science. Especially when it comes to the Negro Leagues, which were often 4 parts baseball mixed with 1 part the WWE. 2. Although major leaguers rarely played in the Negro Leagues and vice versa, Negro Leaguers did play in the Mexican League or the Cuban leagues along with white players who had major or minor league careers. It's a couple degrees of separation away so it's not perfect, but you can still make some assumptions.

05-02-2006, 03:20 PM	#16
KWhit Major Leagues Join Date: Feb 2002 Posts: 413	Instead of making MLB's equivilency to a value below 1, why not make the MLB and Negro League equivilency values both be 1. That would naturally "dilute" the talent of MLB because of all the superstars in the Negro Leagues that conceivably could be playing in MLB and replacing the mid-level and lower players who round out the MLB rosters.

05-02-2006, 03:35 PM	#17
Gorilla Shakespeare Banned Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 405	Another question about equivalencies: will the computer occasionally create really good players, even in lower-equivalent leagues? One of the ways you can tell, in fact, that MLB of the past was inferior to MLB of today (or at least the recent, pre-chemical past) is the way guys like Honus Wagner absolutely dominated the game. Even taking Bonds into account, there was a greater discrepancy between the average player and the superstar in 1901 than there is now. The game, of course, has not recreated that, but maybe with equivalencies it will ... ?