RB fantasy battle of suckatude - choose!

MrWorkrate · 12-17-2005, 12:36 PM

Going into round 2 of my fantasy football playoffs this week, and looking at my #2 running back option has given me three options that don't look promising in the slightest. Let's take a look, shall we?

Willis McGahee, Buffalo Bills (vs Denver) - At one time, this would have been a no-brainer. But with Buffalo's inept offense and McGahee seemingly no threat to run recently, McGahee has been a weak start at best recently. This week, he's coming off an injury and facing a tough Denver rush defense, giving up only 85.4 yards a game.

Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys (@ Washington) - Barber, who still isn't currently listed as the Cowboys starting running back, is splitting carries with Julius Jones. While Barber outperformed Jones last week (15 carries, 82 yards, 2 catches, 32 yards), but Barber's workload in the past (9 carries against Denver, 2 carries against the Giants) seems to imply that Parcells still favors Jones. Washington's rush defense is average, giving up 106.3 yards a game.

T.J. Duckett, Atlanta Falcons (@ Chicago) - Normally, I wouldn't consider Duckett, but starting him would almost work as a defensive measure, since my opponent this week is starting Warrick Dunn. Now, Duckett doesn't put up the yardage and is pretty much the third option for rushing yards on Atlanta (behind Dunn and Michael Vick), but he is the goal line option for the Falcons. It'd be like using Dunn's yardage against him. Chicago's defense, while very good, is still giving up 100.7 yards rushing a game.

I'm leaning towards McGahee, but I was wondering if anyone has heard anything that might change my mind, especially regarding Barber's situation.

Luis_Rivera · 12-17-2005, 12:39 PM

No brainer. Go with McGahee as he's the best back going against the worst rush D.

rogmax11 · 12-17-2005, 12:42 PM

Au contraire: go with Duckett because his name rhymes with....

MrWorkrate · 12-17-2005, 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luis_Rivera

No brainer. Go with McGahee as he's the best back going against the worst rush D.

McGahee's going up against the toughest rush D, if we're going by yardage (85.4 yards per game).

Luis_Rivera · 12-17-2005, 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luis_Rivera

No brainer. Go with McGahee as he's the best back going against the worst rush D.

To explain why they're the worst of the 3 despite the high rank in YPG:

Denver has faced less runs than any team in the league given that they've had the lead so much. You can see the difference in YPC between them and Chicago (3.8 v. 3.5).

Well, Washington has given up a higher YPC (4.0) than Denver so how could they be better? Well, they have given up the most runs of 10+ yards of any team in the league. Once you get up to those high numbers of yards in a carry, it speaks more to the running back's ability/secondary's tackling ability than the front 7's ability to stop the run. The Washington front 7 has had much more success than Denver's.

Edit: I'm aware that the fact that teams won't run against them because they're behind plays a factor in fantasy #'s but I'd say McGahee has the best chance of having the best game given the information above. By DVOA Chicago (3) and Washington (7) are both top D's against the run while Denver (17) is about average.

JDOldSchool · 12-17-2005, 04:07 PM

McGahee has quit on this season. He basically said so a couple weeks ago when he said something to the effect of getting 1,000 yards was all that mattered at this point. He hasn't done a thing in almost a month and a half.

Last 5 McGahee games: 66 yards, 39, 53, 81, 3. Yes, 3. He has 0 TDs in those 5 games and his long run is 13 yards. Even though the weather in Buffalo is crappy tonight, I still think the Bills will be throwing a lot since Denver should have a healthy lead by the start of the 2nd half.

I'm not starting Barber just because you never know how many carries he'll get.

I go with Duckett. He's not the #1 option, but he's the most likely to score a touchdown. Plus, he's harder to tackle than Dunn or Vick from a size standpoint. With the starting safties out for the Bears they're going to have trouble bringing the big guy down. I think Duckett will get more carries than normal.

Faroo6 · 12-17-2005, 11:15 PM

Well McGahee has a TD so far.

Who'd you start?

jaxmagicman · 12-18-2005, 11:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luis_Rivera

To explain why they're the worst of the 3 despite the high rank in YPG:

Denver has faced less runs than any team in the league given that they've had the lead so much. You can see the difference in YPC between them and Chicago (3.8 v. 3.5).

Well, Washington has given up a higher YPC (4.0) than Denver so how could they be better? Well, they have given up the most runs of 10+ yards of any team in the league. Once you get up to those high numbers of yards in a carry, it speaks more to the running back's ability/secondary's tackling ability than the front 7's ability to stop the run. The Washington front 7 has had much more success than Denver's.

Edit: I'm aware that the fact that teams won't run against them because they're behind plays a factor in fantasy #'s but I'd say McGahee has the best chance of having the best game given the information above. By DVOA Chicago (3) and Washington (7) are both top D's against the run while Denver (17) is about average.

When we are talking about Fantasy Football you have to play by their numbers. They don't give you credit for yards per rush, they give you credit for yards gained.

Luis_Rivera · 12-18-2005, 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jaxmagicman

When we are talking about Fantasy Football you have to play by their numbers. They don't give you credit for yards per rush, they give you credit for yards gained.

You missed my point. YPC is just part of the equation. I'm talking... who'se the worst defense... who would be most likely to give up a good performance??

abailey3313 · 12-19-2005, 01:35 AM

Hopefully you went with McGahee. But, eek. None of your guys did anything.

View Poll Results: Who should I start?
Willis McGahee	6	37.50%
Marion Barber	4	25.00%
T.J. Duckett	6	37.50%
Voters: 16. You may not vote on this poll

12-19-2005, 01:35 AM	#10
abailey3313 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 3,718	Hopefully you went with McGahee. But, eek. None of your guys did anything. __________________

12-17-2005, 12:36 PM	#1
MrWorkrate All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Raleigh, NC Posts: 1,262	RB fantasy battle of suckatude - choose! Going into round 2 of my fantasy football playoffs this week, and looking at my #2 running back option has given me three options that don't look promising in the slightest. Let's take a look, shall we? Willis McGahee, Buffalo Bills (vs Denver) - At one time, this would have been a no-brainer. But with Buffalo's inept offense and McGahee seemingly no threat to run recently, McGahee has been a weak start at best recently. This week, he's coming off an injury and facing a tough Denver rush defense, giving up only 85.4 yards a game. Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys (@ Washington) - Barber, who still isn't currently listed as the Cowboys starting running back, is splitting carries with Julius Jones. While Barber outperformed Jones last week (15 carries, 82 yards, 2 catches, 32 yards), but Barber's workload in the past (9 carries against Denver, 2 carries against the Giants) seems to imply that Parcells still favors Jones. Washington's rush defense is average, giving up 106.3 yards a game. T.J. Duckett, Atlanta Falcons (@ Chicago) - Normally, I wouldn't consider Duckett, but starting him would almost work as a defensive measure, since my opponent this week is starting Warrick Dunn. Now, Duckett doesn't put up the yardage and is pretty much the third option for rushing yards on Atlanta (behind Dunn and Michael Vick), but he is the goal line option for the Falcons. It'd be like using Dunn's yardage against him. Chicago's defense, while very good, is still giving up 100.7 yards rushing a game. I'm leaning towards McGahee, but I was wondering if anyone has heard anything that might change my mind, especially regarding Barber's situation. __________________ I used to come here a lot. Now, not so much.

12-17-2005, 12:39 PM	#2
Luis_Rivera Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 4,177	No brainer. Go with McGahee as he's the best back going against the worst rush D.

12-17-2005, 12:42 PM	#3
rogmax11 All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 1,320	Au contraire: go with Duckett because his name rhymes with....

12-17-2005, 04:07 PM	#6
JDOldSchool Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 4,023	McGahee has quit on this season. He basically said so a couple weeks ago when he said something to the effect of getting 1,000 yards was all that mattered at this point. He hasn't done a thing in almost a month and a half. Last 5 McGahee games: 66 yards, 39, 53, 81, 3. Yes, 3. He has 0 TDs in those 5 games and his long run is 13 yards. Even though the weather in Buffalo is crappy tonight, I still think the Bills will be throwing a lot since Denver should have a healthy lead by the start of the 2nd half. I'm not starting Barber just because you never know how many carries he'll get. I go with Duckett. He's not the #1 option, but he's the most likely to score a touchdown. Plus, he's harder to tackle than Dunn or Vick from a size standpoint. With the starting safties out for the Bears they're going to have trouble bringing the big guy down. I think Duckett will get more carries than normal.