Fictional league quandry

Markmeister · 06-03-2004, 07:13 PM

I just started a solo league started in 1885 that I am posting about on the Dynasty Board and just hit my first 'problem' in 1886.

I have run numerous test seasons trying to get the stats to look like I wanted. Most of the time the hitting stats are within 5% of what I expect them to be, but for some reason this time the home runs were way out of wack.

413 home runs were hit in 1886 between the AA & NL in real life.

My league had 44,644 AB compared to 72,927 AB in real life, so the expected number of homers should be around 253.

This sim had 321 HR which is 26% higher than I expected.

My question is what would you do? Except for 1 player who hit 26 home runs, no one else is way out of line. The next highest total is 13, which is actually in line with what I was expecting. I suspect that the problem is due to multiple players who have 1 to 2 home runs more than they would have in a normal sim.

My 2 options are to either let this season stand and adjust the era factors for future seasons, or to restore the 1885 season and rerun 1886.

Hank Greenberg · 06-03-2004, 07:21 PM

You could go through the stadiums and edit the park factors to have less HRs.

EDIT: Drop 5 points from each stadium, if there not low enough, drop 7...then 10.

06-03-2004, 07:13 PM	#1
Markmeister Major Leagues Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Kentucky Posts: 463	Fictional league quandry I just started a solo league started in 1885 that I am posting about on the Dynasty Board and just hit my first 'problem' in 1886. I have run numerous test seasons trying to get the stats to look like I wanted. Most of the time the hitting stats are within 5% of what I expect them to be, but for some reason this time the home runs were way out of wack. 413 home runs were hit in 1886 between the AA & NL in real life. My league had 44,644 AB compared to 72,927 AB in real life, so the expected number of homers should be around 253. This sim had 321 HR which is 26% higher than I expected. My question is what would you do? Except for 1 player who hit 26 home runs, no one else is way out of line. The next highest total is 13, which is actually in line with what I was expecting. I suspect that the problem is due to multiple players who have 1 to 2 home runs more than they would have in a normal sim. My 2 options are to either let this season stand and adjust the era factors for future seasons, or to restore the 1885 season and rerun 1886. __________________ It's not that baseball has ever had a shortage of ways to embarrass yourself -- dropping an easy flyball, being the one guy Heathcliff Slocumb actually struck out, realizing you're Bud Selig... Jersey style logos Vintage letter logos Vintage uniforms

06-03-2004, 07:21 PM	#2
Hank Greenberg Major Leagues Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 460	You could go through the stadiums and edit the park factors to have less HRs. EDIT: Drop 5 points from each stadium, if there not low enough, drop 7...then 10.