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Old 06-30-2019, 09:51 PM   #3
NoOne
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there's an optimal %-success based on timing.. what that timing is .. well, that's the fun part. you could mine that data and figure it out. turn off competing factors like TCR, but you'd also want to know if TCR disproportionately affects younger players, because that would be a major factor to consider if true.

Too early definitely increases chances of dips. Same with too late in my experiences. could be wrong. lots of failures either way. i *think* i see fewer avoiding the extremes in age, relative to this decision.

i don't like them chilling in the international complex for more than a year. 17-18 is the preferred earliest age for me to promote. if they are nearly 18 when i sign them, they go straight to rookie league.

a very rare occurence is an iafa that is not only ~17 but also ~50/100 contact type developement. these are the guys that can* make it to the MLB by the time they are 18 or 19.

i've had some that were bloated ~50/100 contact and others that thrived at AA/AAA within 1/2 a season to 1 full season of quick promotions. put the toe in the water. wait for a scouting update at rookie or wherever you promoted, unless you have 1/6months or something on the reports. promote quickly and make sure ratings don't correct due to improved scouting as he moves up. only care about results if ratings are also not improving. otherwise, ignore results if ratings are improving... that is simply all that matters while in the minor leagues. rate of improvement toward potential.

Vastly improved scouting as they play and in advanced levels. some combination of age/experience/minor league level.

don't put any weight into their ratings while in the international complex and even the first ~1 year of mil career. watch it adjust. make use of those line graphs. make some inferences. a guy whose ratings are steadily crashing isn't what you thought - most likely.

Last edited by NoOne; 06-30-2019 at 09:54 PM.
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