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Old 04-30-2012, 05:44 AM   #13
Hendu Style
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Billy Beane Diary: Crunching the Numbers

Thursday, January 16th, 1992

Apparently Sandy has more faith in me than I first suspected. As instructed, I interviewed candidates for two minor league managerial positions at Single A Stockton and Short Season A Vancouver. Sandy asked me who I liked for each opening, and I gave him my honest assessment, having known both in my years as a player. Sandy told me, "Hire 'em." So I did. Cecil Davis is the new manager of the Stockton Ports, and Rob Dyer is going to Vancouver.

On to bigger things...

Sandy told me he was mulling a trade with the Mets. They have offered Dave Magadan for Mark McGwire, straight-up. Both are in their late 20's, both are firstbaseman, and both are eligible for arbitration. In that regard, they are nearly identical. Magadan hit .328 in 1990, but slipped to .258 this past season and brings little pop in his bat. Big Mac, on the other hand, is coming off a career-worst .201 and 22 HR last season and is nowhere close to being the player he was in '87 when he clubbed a rookie record 49 homers and batted .289. Though he didn't solicit my advice, I told Sandy that if we are going to trade Mac, we might as well get a pitcher to stock our depleted rotation, and move Harold Baines over to first base. I'm not sure if the advice fell on deaf ears or not.

I haven't been given specific instructions on paring down our payroll, but I'm going to guess the target number is somewhere around $25 million, or $6 million lower than our total committed salaries for the upcoming fiscal year. Look at me, sounding like an accountant already.

Rickey is a free agent after the season. He is our biggest priority right now. He is already the highest-paid player in the game along with Cal Ripken and Ryne Sandberg at $4.64 million per season. We can lock him up to an extension, but he's getting up there in age (33) and is asking for a five-year deal worth $25 million. That would increase our total payroll by about $400,000 for each of the next five years. And that's if we sign him to an extension. That number could climb even higher if he hits free agency. I see Rickey as the real linchpin to our future. If we commit a big contract to him, we put all of our eggs in one basket. If we let Rickey walk, we have some much-needed wriggle room on our payroll.

Meanwhile, between Jose and Baines, we have an annual salary commitment of $8.8 million. We also got a total of 64 homeruns and 212 RBI between the two last season. Clearly, they are a big piece of the pie, both financially and in our lineup. Can we keep both? I don't know. We also have to consider Hendu, who hit 25 HR and drove in 85 RBI last season but comes with a $4 million salary.

Our four highest-paid players ($17.4 million) eat up more than half of our total player payroll ($31.2 million). This will be a sticking point for us in the next few years if we're going to stay competitive.

I think our first order of business will be determining what to do with those four players. I get the feeling Sandy already has a plan, but he wants to see what I come up with. Do I go bold and tell him to swing a mammoth trade to restock our roster, or do I play it safe and say we keep our roster intact and let Rickey go to free agency at the end of the season? I've never been the kind of guy who just takes a free pass to first base. My gut tells me I need to swing for the fences here.

But if I'm going to advise Sandy to trade our four biggest sluggers, I also need to target players we can get in return. We're not going to get Frank Thomas or Ken Griffey Junior for these guys, 2 MVP awards be damned. Seattle's not going to see a 40-40 guy in Jose Canseco like we had in '88, and Rickey Henderson -- just one year removed from that .325, 27 HR, 65 steal MVP season in 1990 -- is in the last year of a contract. Even the shrewdest front office man out there isn't going to get incredible value out of these trades.
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Last edited by Hendu Style; 05-01-2012 at 12:16 AM.
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