View Single Post
Old 06-19-2013, 10:54 AM   #33
VanillaGorilla
All Star Starter
 
VanillaGorilla's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 1,370
Blog Entries: 2
Thanks: 354
Thanked 514x in 267 posts
Class of 2038: None

There were no entries IRL for the 5th and 6th years of the HOF. For years such as these, players will be entered on First Ballot Screenings for this HOF. There were two players that the software entered, but they did not meet the FBS eligibility requirements as currently defined by the players already enshrined.

Going back to the nuts and bolts mode here (since there aren't any actual inductions):

The Class of 2037 was the 4th class. IRL 7 players entered. That translated to an expected class here of 6. To have had only one entrant was a rather unlikely outcome, but that was the outcome. Had there been more entrants, the overall numbers would have, in all likelihood, come down. Perhaps they would have come down enough to get one of the players who received a First Ballot screening inducted in 2038.

In reality, the foundation of the RL HOF entry standards is the make-up of the players already inducted into the HOF. Also, and to a lesser extent (greater at some times in history than others) personal favoritism.

This HOF is set up to mimic these factors in its output. I see the tweaks that have been applied to this run through as improving the RL replication over that of the previous run-throughs.

The current HOFers have established a floor of around 4 (chart attached below). The mean GC is 5.5. We see all of the plots, with the exception of Aaron's 10.0, very close to this mean.

I have described the 'gravity' of entrance scores and how they pull in subsequent entry scores that are close to those already in. Right now, lower scores (3.0 and below) are not going to be pulled in because the center of gravity, so to speak, is much higher.

There were 9 entries IRL for what will correspond to the Class of 2043, here. The expected number of entries from that class to this league, based on proportionate populations, is 8. If THIS class generates a low number of entries (as the 2037 class did) we will see a very different HOF structure for the rest of the run than witnessed in the previous run throughs. There would be less variance in the scores of the subsequent entrants.

If there would be 20 entrants in 2043, this would also radically change the type of entrants seen for the rest of the run. There would be many more Jim Rice, Orlando Cepeda, Ron Santo type entries, were this to happen.

However, the most likely thing that will happen is that we will get around 8 entries and this HOF will look similar in make-up to the one IRL.
Attached Images
Image 

Last edited by VanillaGorilla; 06-19-2013 at 03:21 PM. Reason: It is the 2043 Class that is based on 9 entries, not the 2040 class....that was edited
VanillaGorilla is offline   Reply With Quote