Quote:
Originally Posted by RonCo
It's not just pitchers, of course. Similar conversations can be had with the AvoidK rating batters have. There are multiple ways a guy can avoid getting struck out: (1) not swinging at balls outside the zone, (2) swinging at balls in the zone, and making contact (avoiding swinging strikes). You can probably argue for more. So Avoid K is an rating with incomplete data, also.
Same with Contact, which is basically batting average.
Eye is the ability to draw walks, which could be broken down further into plate discipline, which is comprised of at least the two skillsets I note in the AvoidK paragraph.
At question there is how deep the game design can go and still create outputs that satisfy us human beings who play it. But, yes, as you (ConStar) note, we're playing with incomplete models...or at least models that are kind of working their way backwards.
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Yeah, the whole "Eye" and "Avoid Ks" thing tend to comingle as well and lead to situations like me having a guy who is 5/20 in Eye but 15/20 in Avoid Ks. Let's think about that for a moment: His plate recognition is so bad that he's 5/20 in walks taken but he almost never strikes out. So, OK, maybe he's a high-contact guy who just swings at everything he sees ... nope, he's 11/20 in contact. So basically his plate discipline ends exactly at the edges of the strike zone.
As hard as that is to believe on its face, what it tends to lead to is his batting average being overinflated. To wit: this guy has hit .270 - .300 now in three out of the four years he's been in the majors. The system seems to be having the same issues I am figuring out what to do with his at-bats. It seems to be prioritizing accuracy in the Eye and Avoid Ks categories and is dumping its "errors" into Contact. In doing so, the system has created a player I love having at the plate in key situations, especially two outs and/or bases-loaded scenarios. On top of this, he's got a 16/20 gap power rating, and he's on pace for 55-60 doubles this year despite the fact he's only going to get about 520-550 ABs. I have basically watched the game create a guy who has Carlos Beltran's career profile despite not having the ratings necessary to do it.
Going back to Faison, I'd just like to know what a 20/20 fastball and 17/17 curve would look like in real life on a guy with Movement of 6. I get low-movement relievers; the game is full of them now and has been for decades. Just wind it up and throw it hard, Ace. But those kind of guys eventually circle around to the Stuff argument again. It's maddening.