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Old 06-03-2019, 11:30 PM   #2
The_Myth
Minors (Double A)
 
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: World
Posts: 172
March 27, 1984

We’re nearing the end of spring training. Here are my goals from owner Bill Giles:
  • Win the championship, by 1985
  • Sign Larry Andersen to an extension, by 1985
  • Bring in a manager with a better reputation, by 1987
  • Build a team that can bring a championship home, by 1987

Giles obviously wants a winner (though he also wants a quick retool), considering his priority is “extreme winning.” Heck, the Phils haven’t finished at .500 or below since 1974, and only once in the last nine years have they finished with a winning percentage under .530. His patience is “tolerant,” while his fiscal personality is “charitable.” An owner who expects to win but doesn’t mind shelling out the bucks isn’t bad at all.

Of course, I’m not sure if I’ll win the World Series in the next two seasons. But I can certainly build a contending team within four years, and I can both extend Andersen, a reliever, and upgrade my manager in time (current skipper Paul Owens is "average"). I shouldn’t have problems meeting most of my goals.

That said, as I mentioned, there are still aging veterans here, though nowhere near as old as the 1983 version that won the National League pennant. Here are my 10 oldest players, and how much they’re making in 1984 (of a total $9.1 million payroll):

Jerry Koosman, 41 - SP - $700K
Tug McGraw, 39 - RP - $380K
Steve Carlton, 39 - SP - $1M
Bill Campbell, 35 - RP - $380K
Garry Maddox, 34 - CF - $770K
John Wockenfuss, 34 - 1B - $330K
Mike Schmidt, 34 - 3B - $2M
John Denny, 31 - SP - $1.1M
Al Holland, 31 - RP - $360K
Ivan de Jesus, 31 - $163K

That’s $7.183 million of my $9.1 million payroll committed to 10 older players, a few of them with contracts taking them into 1986. The point: If any of these older guys declines hard, it could be hard to get out from their contracts. We'll need to be nimble, and sooner than later.

There is some young talent on the roster, though, and I’m hoping some of these kids - some of whom making a slight impression in 1983 - can deliver in 1984.

Let’s go through the top-rated prospects in my system.

Top Prospects

1. Darren Daulton - C - 22 - 46/60

Drafted in 1980, Daulton has steadily ascended the ranks thanks to his outstanding plate discipline (70 rating). Last year at AA Reading, Daulton posted a .425 OBP with 106 walks and 87 strikeouts. His 39 extra-base hits in 483 plate appearances wasn’t bad, either. He rates a 65 at catcher (60 catcher ability, 60 catcher arm), making him a quick mover. In fact, he got four plate appearances late in the 1983 season with the Phillies. The expectation is a half to full season in AAA Portland with a full-time Philly ETA of 1985. He should be a first-division regular, and could be one of the better catchers in the game, in his prime.

2. Mike LaValliere - C - 23 - 36/48

LaValliere is a third baseman who converted to catcher, and he played both positions at AA Reading in 1983 because he needed plate appearances while Daulton spent much of the time at backstop. Still, he accrued just 252 plate appearances, though he hit a stout .292/.382/.440 with 22 extra-base knocks. He’s Daulton lite, profiling as a solid on-base threat (60 rating) with decent power (50 gap, 45 home run). With a 60 catcher rating (55 catcher ability, 60 catcher arm), LaValliere should stick there, so he’ll repeat Reading in 1984 but as the primary receiver. His ceiling is average major league regular.

3. Juan Samuel - 2B - 23 - 40/46

The youngster signed out of the Dominican Republic has a potent combination of speed and power. In his first three minor league seasons - age 20-22 - he stole 163 bases and slammed 56 home runs. He started 1983 at AA Reading, and while Samuel struggled to get on base (.234 AVG, .267 OBP), he did notch 21 extra-base hits in 196 plate appearances, plus 19 steals. Promoted to AAA Portland, Samuel went off, hitting .330/.388/.617 with 37 extra-base hits and 33 steals in 289 plate appearances. Excitement level is high for him, though we should be mindful of poor plate discipline (90 strikeouts to 34 walks in 1983) and still-developing defensive profile (35 at second base; 45 infield range, 35 infield error, 35 infield arm, 45 turn double play). Samuel may be a thrill to watch, but sometimes he’ll be agonizing; still, he could be an all-star-caliber talent and will start 1984 in Philadelphia, as he’s by far the organization’s top second baseman.

4. John W Russell - C - 23 - 43/45

Another top catching prospect, Russell is best at backstop (60 catcher rating) but can also play first base (40), left field (45) and right field (40). Really it’s his bat that’s played, with a .501 SLG (27 HR, 23 2B) in 1983 at AAA Portland (with 109 strikeouts, however). Because of the power tool (55 gap, 60 home run) and his position flexibility, he jumped the line and started at the top levels of the minors. In 1984 he’s on the short list to start the season in Philadelphia; from here, he’s a solid bench bat with potential for a breakout in the majors.

5. Mike Diaz - 1B - 23 - 40/44

Acquired in the trade with the Cubs that also sent Bill Campbell to the Phillies, Diaz is a major-league ready do-everything type with some power (50 gap, 55/60 home run), a decent eye (45/50 rating), and average contact tool (45 rating). For AAA Iowa in 1983, he hit .324/.400/.592 with 31 extra-base hits in 271 plate appearances, showing breakout potential. He can play catcher (65 rating), plus first base (50), third base (50), left field (50), and right field (45). He’ll primarily play first and third at AAA Portland in 1984, and will be one of the first to Philly in the case of an injury or two. He figures to be a good bench bat, at best a starter in the corner infield. Catcher isn’t out of the question, either, but he won’t develop full time there in the minors.

6. Kelly Downs - SP - 23 - 33/42

Since being drafted in 1979, Downs has steadily moved up the system, though his previous two seasons in AAA proved a mixed bag. On one hand, his strikeout-to-walk ratio was poor (70/72 in 1982, 71/61 in 1983), but on the other hand, he limits hard contact (0.7 HR/9 last two seasons). He throws an average fastball, curveball, and changeup mix without overpowering hitters. To reach the majors and stay there, he’ll need to improve control (40/45 rating); otherwise, he’s likely to be a quad-A type that can fill in for a couple of starts each season.

7. Chris James - 3B/LF - 21 - 30/42

At just 21, James is showing to be a highly skilled hitter with speed and athleticism. In rookie ball in 1982, he hit .317/.381/.586, crushing 34 extra-base hits in 253 plate appearances. Moving to A Spartanburg in 1983, he continued to stun, hitting .297/.358/.515 with 53 extra-base hits in 562 plate appearances. He’s being aggressively pushed to AA Reading for 1984, where he’ll be tested to maintain and improve average plate discipline (40/40 rating) while continuing to show potential with his power and speed combination. He played a lot of left field over the past two seasons, but his third base play has increased annually. This year he’ll exclusively play third (45 defense, 60 infield arm rating). If numbers bear out, we’re talking an organizational top-three prospect with all-star potential and major league aspirations in 1985.

8. Don Carman - RP - 24 - 36/41

After proving in 1982 he needed more seasoning at AA Reading, Carman responded with a 2.75 ERA in 1983. He still walks too many batters (4.8 BB/9 in 1983) as his control suffers (35/45 rating), so that will need to improve as the reliever takes on AAA Portland in 1984. A strong start could bring this fastball-changeup-sinker pitcher to Philadelphia by midseason, but it’s all about the free passes.

9. Michael Jackson - SP - 19 - 30/41

Selected in the second round of the 1983-84 supplemental draft, Jackson comes out of high school to pick for the Gulf Coast Phillies in rookie ball. The six-foot, 185-pounder has a decent fastball (45/45), slider (45/50), forkball (40/40), and sinker (40/50), and while the stuff is playable (50/50 rating), he’ll need to improve control (30/45). A mid-rotation starter is possible, but a back-end guy is more likely at this point.

10. Jeff Gray - RP - 20 - 36/40

The 20-year-old Gray was signed out of college early in 1984. With an above-average curveball (50/55) and an average sinker (45/45), he’s slotted as a back-end reliever. He’ll need more movement on his two-seamer (35/35), but if he can generate swings and misses with it, he should move up the ladder relatively quickly. He’ll start in rookie ball for the Gulf Coast Phillies, but ending the year in class-A Peninsula isn’t out of the question.

11. Steve Jeltz - SS - 24 - 30/40
12. Rick Schu - 3B - 22 - 30/40
13. Larry Ray - LF - 25 - 39/39
14. Jeff Stone - LF - 23 - 38/39

This group includes four players who’ll begin 1984 in the upper levels. Jeltz might provide middle infield depth in the majors with an outside shot at a starting role; Schu skipped AA Reading, so this year he'll start there, adding second base to his repertoire; Ray is probably a fifth outfielder at this point; while Stone - who has stolen 311 bases over the last three years and won the Eastern League MVP award in 1983 - could morph into a regular thanks to his wheels.

15. Keith Miller - 2B - 20 - 34/39
16. Keith Hughes - LF - 20 - 29/38

Two players a bit further from the majors at this point. Drafted in the 16th round in 1984, Miller has a good eye, speed, and position flexibility, and will begin at A Spartanburg. The offense-first Hughes had a breakout in 1983 in Spartanburg, and will move to A Peninsula in 1984.

17. John McLarnan - RP - 22 - 38/38
18. Tony Ghelfi - SP - 22 - 37/37
19. Mike Maddux - SP - 22 - 28/37

Finally, three pitchers who could move quickly. McLarnan will start at A Spartanburg, but with a plus circle-change, and a nearly developed repertoire, he’s a candidate to finish the year at AA Reading or even higher. Ghelfi got 14 innings in Philly in 1983; he could get a few spot starts if necessary in 1984. And Maddux needs a good run at AA Reading before being seriously considered.

What does this all tell me? That my most viable prospects are at the upper levels, but I also don’t have a sure thing in the system (except maybe Daulton). It also looks like a weaker system. So I can’t really subtract, but also, I'm not going to sell or buy too hard. That means a real challenge for me.

Last edited by The_Myth; 06-11-2019 at 06:47 PM.
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