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Old 02-11-2008, 07:54 PM   #2
Getch
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 868
fhomness's readme for the Playoff Odds:

Postseason Qualifiers
There are two options here:
1. Division Winners
2. Division Winners + Wild Card(s)

Choose the correct setting for your league. Note that when division winners are selected, the report will display how many times each team won the division.

When the Wild Card option is selected, the report will display the percentage of the time that the team won the division, as well as the percentage of the time the team won a Wild Card. In leagues with an odd number of divisions, 1 Wild Card team is selected, while leagues with an even number of divisions will have 2 Wild Card teams selected. In this latter case, the Wild Cards will be the two best non-division winning teams, and may come from the same division.

If you have an unusual league structure, you may find that the wild card option doesn’t work for your league. In those cases, please use the division winners setting for the time being and let me know if you’d really like me to try to get it to work for your league.

Estimate Future Success Based On
There are two options here:
1. Pythagorean Win Pct
2. Actual Win Pct

When the utility simulates the remainder of the season, you can decide whether to use each team’s Pythagorean record or actual record to approximate their level of performance. The utility then uses the Log5 method of calculating the chance of winning any single game throughout the remainder of the season. This is then compared to a random value, and a win or a loss is assigned.

Pythagorean Exponent
When using the Pythagorean Win Pct to determine team success, you have the ability to configure the exponent in the equation. Originally, an exponent of 2.00 was used, although later research has shown that 1.82 is slightly more accurate, and that is recommended.

Seasons to Simulate
The number of simulated seasons you want to run. Each season takes time to run, so when first configuring the utility, it’s recommended to try with just 1 or 2 seasons before entering a large number here. In the IFB, I’ve run it with 1000 seasons, and it takes between 5 and 10 seconds to finish. If you set it too high, the code will fail as the numbers get too big.

BE SURE TO SAVE YOUR SETTINGS BEFORE CLICKING THE GENERATE REPORT BUTTON
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