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you won't be able to gain a benefit of purposefully sandbagging in hopes of overachievement that's better than simply winning more with more talent.
no idea how it's all tabulated. i'd assume wins, team offensive metrics, postseason results etc etc, like you said. if it shows the current year's cumulative total as we go, that would help. but, you could determine details by comparing enough years. i doubt anyone has done this in depth.
i don't think it looks at results relative to talent level. random volatile results that happen to be good luck are the same in season points no matter how they are achieved. e.g. 900 runs is 900 runs regardless of over or underachievement and contriubutes the same amount to the cumulative total.
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