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Originally Posted by Yankee Hotel Foxtrot
The identification of talent is difficult and I seem to draft a significantly high proportion of busts, they have 5 star potential on draft day but mostly (and I'm talking about 70% of these guys) turn out to be complete total spuds' with 1 star ratings after a season or two. Often I will find my scouting director recommending some guy rated 1 star current & 1 star potential, when there is at the same position another guy my scout has already advised has a 4 or 5 star potential. I find this somewhat confusing.
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Evaluating amateur talent for the draft is tricky because even the best scouts can be far off on a lot of the amateurs. What I do is look at my scouting director's ratings, the OSA ratings, the COL/HS stats, and make a guesstimate, sometimes splitting the difference between my SD and OSA. Of course, it always helps to have a highly-rated SD, even though that's no guarantee of accuracy for the draft.
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In the meantime whilst I have 4 potential 5 star young pitchers between 18-21 yrs of age kicking their heels in the lower depths of the minor's my scouting director has no problem trading a couple of good young kids for some 35 yr old 1 star rated, burned out veteran pitcher, who ends up haemorrhaging home runs.
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I'd advise taking the AI off trades. Assess whether you're building for the future or going after a win in the short-term, and then identify talent around the league that you want to acquire. Aging vets who are due to decline and take up a lot of salary space might be candidates to sell for prospects if you're in that cycle of contention.