Quote:
Originally Posted by Argonaut
I don't think that's true and I can't follow the logic. Walks prolong innings. Shorter innings = fewer chances for home runs. Maybe you're right on a small scale per batter, but I can't see that being right per inning.
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Less walks = More PAs where a HR is a possible result?
If the game resolves BB/K/HR first (let's say in that order, check for a walk, check for contact, then if contact, check for HR), then if there's fewer walks, there's potentially more PAs that can get through to the HR, if they don't get trapped by the K.
Let's say there's 10,000 PAs and normally there's 3,000 BBs.
That leaves 7,000 PAs that could get through to HR, if they don't get caught by K's.
If there's 0 BB, then those 3,000 BBs can then "check" for K's, and if they get by that, they can become HR.
Assuming the same rate for K's, that's more PAs "checking for" HRs.