Quote:
Originally Posted by Argonaut
Anyway, that kind of thing may make people get lost in the details unless they have a firm grasp of the system. So I just say look at STU/MOV/CON to evaluate pitchers, but also look to see if he has a Knuckleball because that will make him better than advertised.
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Actually look and see if he has a knuckleball but no fastball, because if he has a fastball at all that knuckleball "bonus" to lowering BABIP won't factor in. On the other hand, that knuckleball doesn't have to be any good to get the BABIP bonus as long as there's no fastball.
And it's hard to know just how much to count the BABIP bonus for (unless you cheat by going into commissioner mode and checking projected ERA in edit mode) and pitchers with a knuckleball and no fastball at all are rare enough you don't hurt much by not worrying about it.
The way knuckleballs/fastballs work that way I take as a flaw in design. I'd imagine studies show that players with a knuckleball as their main pitch do a lot better at BABIP, but then it should be more that there's no bonus for a knuckleball if it's not one of the two best pitches, and the bonus rises to its max the better the knuckleball is relative to other pitches. As it is a lousy knuckleball will give the same edge as a great one, and a great one gives nothing if the pitcher has a fastball at all.