[Curve Ball Dave]

Originally Posted by zrog2000

So if I ask you if a player who just had a disappointing season had a bad year or an unlucky year, you can quantifiably tell me the answer without any data to back it up because you watched every inning of every game?

How?

Lets' say we have a batter who saw his home rate decline. We can look at his flyouts and strike outs and if both are up that can only mean he's lost bat speed and that's a very bad sign. He can't get around on pitches like he used to so he either flies out or strikes out. If only his strike outs are up that means pitchers have found the hole in his swing or the pitch he can't hit. That can possibly be corrected, we hope. If just his fly outs are up we know he's losing bat speed but can still make contact with the same pitches. In no case we need to know the exit velocity because the fly outs tell us that already.