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Old 03-27-2019, 03:48 PM   #14
allenciox
All Star Reserve
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 735
In the mechanics of the game, speed has only an "indirect" effect on batting average. That's because the ratings for players is based off of publically available information, like zips and steamer projections. Each ab is modelled as a series of rolls that contrast a pitcher stat against the batter stat (using log5 equation), modified by league modifiers and stadium modifiers. So there is a roll to determine whether the batter gets hit, which is a competition between the pitcher's hb and the batter's hb rating. Then there is a roll to determine whether the batter a walks, which is a competition between the pitcher's control rating and the batter's eye rating. If the batter doesn't walk, then there is a competition for Home Runs (movement & power) and strike outs (stuff & avoid k). Finally, if none of those rolls succeed, there is a competition for ball-in-play (gb%+movement+stuff vs. babip) to see if the hit ball is an out or a hit. If it is a hit, then gap determines the likelihood that it will go for extra bases, and then the ratio of doubles to triples for batter is used (defaulting to speed-based) to determine whether it is a single, double, or triple. In none of those cases is speed used, because presumably speed has already been priced in to the other metrics.
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