June 22, 1984
We get news today of a trade between Baltimore and Los Angeles. The Orioles, who are probably selling, send outfielder Jim Dwyer to the Dodgers for outfielder Ken Landreaux and prospect Candy Maldonado. Apparently the Dodgers wanted a left-handed bench bat - one less suitor for Greg Gross.
I decide that if I’m making trades during the season, I should be looking for a potential starting center fielder for the 1985 club. If I want to compete, I can’t put either Tim Knight or Todd Soares out there on opening day, and as I noted earlier, the free-agent options are bleak. And as I also noted earlier, I could turn back to Von Hayes in center next season, but I should want to avoid such poor defense out there. All to say that I should have a plan ready before the offseason, and that might mean having an established or ready center fielder entrenched.
So, let’s look at what might be available to me. I’ll rank in terms of who I like most. I won’t include players that teams just won’t trade away (let’s be realistic here).
For reference, here’s what I’m getting out of CF this year:
- PHI - Von Hayes - 25 - 51/60 (40 CF), 293 PA, .270/.355/.363, 15 XBH, -8.5 ZR, .934 EFF
Not Interested Tier
- MIL - Bob Skube - 26 - 41/42 (50 CF), 246 PA, .205/.282/.342, 17 XBH, -3.1 ZR, .987 EFF
- CWS - Rudy Law - 27 - 47/47 (50 CF), 152 PA, .213/.253/.284, 6 XBH, -0.3 ZR, .977 EFF
- CIN - Alan Knicely - 29 - 49/49 (50 CF), 250 PA, .288/.316/.441, 19 XBH
- SF - John Rabb - 23 - 44/44 (50 CF), 260 PA, .218/.277/.372, 24 XBH
- ATL - Larry Whisenton - 27 - 47/47 (50 CF), 116 PA, .284/.390/.431, 9 XBH, -3.0 ZR, .964 EFF
Skube apparently works counts and has some gap power, but that’s it, and he’s vain. Law was much better in 1983, plus he has 80 speed, stealing, and baserunning, swiping 113 bags between ‘82 and ‘83. But the rest of the package is pretty bad. Knicely has barely played center and primarily catcher, and he hits like it, with just a little power and not much else. Rabb is like Knicely offensively and defensively, except that he’s primarily a second baseman. Whisenton has been a good hitter, though I’m wary of a high BABIP this season; that said, his defense is poor and he’s branded a “hotshot.”
Not A Starter Tier
- CWS - Dave Stegman - 30 - 48/48 (60 CF), 219 PA, .228/.311/.378, 15 XBH, +1.4 ZR, 1.016 EFF
- CLE - Karl Pagel - 29 - 47/47 (50 CF), 303 PA, .247/.358/.369, 14 XBH, -0.6 ZR, .990 EFF
- SD - Luis Salazar - 28 - 44/45 (65 CF), 219 PA, .216/.251/.372, 17 XBH
Stegman is on the bubble between bench player and starter. He has defense and discipline, but it seems he hits a wall in the majors. Hard to peg. Pagel brings power and discipline, but without speed he’s more a bench bat alone. Salazar hasn’t played much center, but it’s apparently all range, as he has speed; also, he swings early and often and generally is a mediocre .250/.290/.370 type.
Interested Tier
- SD - Gerry Davis - 25 - 50/50 (50 CF), 148 PA, .194/.311/.282, 8 XBH, +0.3 ZR, .994 EFF
- TOR - Rick Leach - 27 - 46/50 (65 CF), 80 PA, .211/.327/.342, 6 XBH
- PIT - Eddie Vargas - 25 - 48/48 (50 CF), 118 PA, .257/.339/.410, 7 XBH, -0.1 ZR, .994 EFF
- SD - Alan Wiggins - 26 - 50/50 (50 CF), 213 PA, .274/.346/.344, 8 XBH
Davis is the quintessential gray area: young and struggling in his first full season, but a lower-than-usual BABIP, a decent profile with speed, eye, and gap power, and good-enough defense in all three outfield positions. Leach feels like a better hitter than his ‘84 numbers, especially with a .212 BABIP, but he’s played little center field in his career. Vargas is definitely a flier type with 20-HR potential but no speed, which means his consistently high BABIPs are weird; ultimately, I could do a year of him to try it, but on a wannabe contender? Wiggins is the kind of hitter I want (contact, speed, a decent eye), but when he played center in 1983 he seemed to only be a small improvement from Hayes.
Clear Step Above Tier
- CLE - Brett Butler - 27 - 50/57 (50 CF), 312 PA, .256/.326/.326, 16 XBH
Butler, who is playing left field this season, is probably a stretch; that said, he’s a terrific defender with plenty of speed and the potential to be a .300 hitter in his prime.
So I can feel Cleveland out a bit; they could use a better closer (though they don’t need one being 14.5 out), and I can offer Lezcano or Gross as a left field substitute for Butler (I know I’m dreaming). Beyond that, I’ll go to San Diego and Pittsburgh (probably the Pirates more heavily), and Toronto feels interesting (especially because they could use a reliever). Maybe the White Sox, as well.
Game 1984-71: Three Rivers Stadium - Phillies 3, Pirates 2 / 30-41
Once again, Paul Owens baffles me by leaving Steve Carlton in the game instead of going to a pinch hitter in the top of the eighth in a tie game. Luckily, it works out, as Lefty collects a complete game. A Mike Schmidt double, followed by a Len Matuszek single, win it.
June 23, 1984
The Orioles put center fielder Al Bumbry on waivers. The 37-year-old has spent his entire career in Baltimore, but this year he’s hitting .236/.284/.298, and the O’s have no need for him anymore. He can still steal some bags with his 55 speed and 65 stealing rating, and puts the ball in play, showing some contact (50/50) while not striking out much (60/60). But he’s also a sieve in the outfield, putting up a -3.9 ZR. He’d be a step up from Garry Maddox, but not enough to take a real flier on him.
Game 1984-72: Three Rivers Stadium - RAINED OUT
June 24, 1984
A Sunday two-ticket doubleheader is on tap, with Kelly Downs going in game one and Charles Hudson pitching the nightcap. Meantime, John Denny comes off the IL and will get at least two starts in AAA Portland. Maybe three, as I may not decide to bring him back until after the all-star break.
Game 1984-72: Three Rivers Stadium - Pirates 5, Phillies 0 / 30-42
John Candelaria throws a four-hitter, while Kelly Downs surrenders five runs on nine hits in 6.2 IP. His ERA is now at 5.75, and with a 6.23 FIP, it hasn’t been a good start to his career. That said, the closer we are to being completely out of the race, the more I don’t mind him getting looks in the majors.
Game 1984-73: Three Rivers Stadium - Pirates 4, Phillies 3 / 30-43
Just the worst. We have a 3-0 lead in the eighth when Bill Campbell blows it, giving up a bunch of singles en route to a 4-3 loss. Mike Schmidt is now hitting .239 and is doing nothing to help the cause, while Juan Samuel - also cold - is down to .259 with a .302 OBP.
We’re now 13 below .500 and 13 behind first-place Pittsburgh. We have the worst record in the National League (four teams in the American League are worse). Among 12 NL teams we’re dead last in AVG (.237), OBP (.298), and batting WAR (3.1), and 10th in runs against (321) and bullpen ERA (3.79), plus eighth in starters ERA (3.79). We should be better, but we’re pretty bad.
Moreover, I don’t want to say I’m worried about Schmidt, but his current .325 OBP and .776 OPS are as bad as his numbers have been since 1973, his first full season (when he was worth just 1.7 WAR). To be fair, Schmidty has been fine defensively (+1.3 ZR, 1.024 EFF) and remains an above-average offensive player, but he’s still under contract for four more seasons. I’m nowhere near thinking about trading him, but I should prepare for a moment when he’s no longer my top offensive player. In fact, I can’t compete if my top hitter is worth 118 WRC+.
New power rankings. We’re 23rd. The top-five:
1. Toronto Blue Jays - 52-21
2. Pittsburgh Pirates - 46-25
3. Detroit Tigers - 43-30
4. New York Mets - 40-31
5. Kansas City Royals - 41-30
The Jays created separation from the Tigers last week, and wins keep rolling in. Meanwhile, the Royals hold a 3.5-game lead over Seattle in the AL West, while the Dodgers are up 4 on Atlanta in the NL West, and the top four teams in the NL East (Pittsburgh, New York, St. Louis, Montreal) wage a war as they’re 4.5 within one another.