PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Projected: 96-64
Last Season: 99-61, 1st (#1 seed in NL)
Beat Suns 3-2, lost to Beacons 4-2
Payroll: $157MM (13th)
Major Additions: RP Ryley Gilliam
Major Losses: none
Top Players: SP Wu-shiun Chen, SP Madison Bumgarner, SP Justin Davis
There's no denying where the Pirates' strength is - they'll go as far as their rotation can take them, which as of late has been pretty far. Chen is the reigning Cy Young Award winner, going 19-8 with a 2.78 ERA for the Bucs last year as they got the top spot in the National League. Even beyond Chen, Bumgarner and Davis, #4 starter Keisaburo Doi showed promise in his first season stateside before suffering an injury, and Ben Lively has already had success as the 5th starter after being a waiver pickup from the D'backs last season. (They look like an excellent defensive team as well, which certainly helps.) Offensively, JT Realmuto is the biggest name, but 3B Nicky Delmonico and RF Matt Pumphrey have become good players for Pittsburgh as well.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Projected: 84-76
Last Season: 75-85, 5th, 24 GB
Payroll: $181MM (9th)
Major Additions: C Andrew Noviello
Major Losses: SP Brandon Finnegan, 1B Justin Bour
Top Players: LF Michael Conforto, 3B Julian Olivo, SP Masahiro Tanaka
The Brew Crew won the 2021 World Series, but their championship hangover was... lengthy. It certainly didn't help that Michael Conforto, the runner-up in 2021 MVP voting, only played in 42 games in '22. It doesn't look like they'll be able to rebound all the way back to championship contention to me - they don't seem to really have a first baseman in Bour's absence, and while the offense overall is better than Pittsburgh's, they don't have anywhere near the pitching staff that the Pirates do.
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Projected: 80-80
Last Season: 85-75, 2nd, 14 GB
Payroll: $93MM (46th)
Major Additions: none
Major Losses: C Gary Sanchez, RF Clint Frazier
Top Players: 1B Cody Bellinger, SP Josh Hader, LF Trevor Larnach
The Cardinals only finished one game away from a playoff spot last season, but that was with Gary Sanchez still in tow (he's now with Norfolk), and this team might also regret letting Clint Frazier leave for Kansas City. An above-average pitching staff featuring Hader, who the team has moved to the rotation for 2023! Hader was 38-39 in save opportunities for the 2022 Cards, but he's about to get the opening day start instead. It seems like it might work - he's got a pretty good changeup to go with his incredible fastball-slider combo. Cody Bellinger is an MVP winner (2020) and considered one of the top 5 hitters in the game, so maybe they'll get on fine without Sanchez. They really could use an outfield upgrade, though.
CINCINNATI REDS
Projected: 79-81
Last Season: 74-86, 6th, 25 GB
Payroll: $169MM (10th)
Major Additions: CL Austin Brice
Major Losses: RP Marc Rzepczynski
Top Players: SP Marcus Stroman, SS Trea Turner, LF Kyle Schwarber
An interesting team for sure - one that could easily have a couple of things go right and then be challenging for a playoff spot, or one that could finish last in this division with injuries in the wrong spots. Turner, Schwarber and C Jonathan Lucroy are the offensive bright spots, with all other starters being well below-average for their position, including RF Andrew McCutchen. The pitching staff looks like a strength, especially in terms of bullpen depth, with Brice coming from Oakland to serve as the new closer but working with a number of established pitchers, like Blake Parker, Nick Vincent, Adam Cimber and Dominic Leone. The rotation should also be a positive for Cincinnati, of course headlined by Stroman but also with Sean Newcomb.
COLUMBUS EXPLORERS
Projected: 78-82
Last Season: 82-78, 4th, 17 GB
Payroll: $85MM (50th)
Major Additions: none
Major Losses: 3B Jedd Gyorko
Top Players: CF Corbin Carroll, SP David Isakov, LF Kameron Misner
Columbus is coming off of their first ever above-.500 finish, but expectations are being readjusted in a hurry with this team after All-Star catcher Nick Fortes suffered a major concussion in a spring training game. I'm not totally sure how, since I don't save game logs from spring training, but it appears that he got run over by a Marlins baserunner at the plate? Someone's taking spring ball a little seriously. Fortes is listed as being out for 6 months, a huge blow to a team trying to make the leap to relevance. Columbus' outfield trio is one of the game's best, probably just behind San Bernardino, with Carroll, Misner and RF Riley Greene all really strong players. The other thing that'll definitely hold this team back is its weak bullpen.
CHICAGO CUBS
Projected: 66-94
Last Season: 84-76, 3rd, 15 GB
Payroll: $132MM (28th)
Major Additions: SP Drew Pomeranz, LF Marcell Ozuna
Major Losses: SP Michael Fulmer, 3B Luis Valbuena, 3B Yulieski Gurriel
Top Players: SS Francisco Lindor, SP Drew Pomeranz, LF Marcell Ozuna
In theory, the Cubs have an alright team - probably not a playoff team, but a .500 team or so. But this Cubs team in particular has been devastated by injuries. The newly signed Marcell Ozuna has a hamstring strain that is going to keep him out of commission until early June, CF Jacob Koos has been sidelined with a concussion since last August and it's unclear when he'll be back, relievers Vance Worley and Wilmer Font will miss most of the season, etc. Without Ozuna and Koos, Francisco Lindor is on an island by himself in the lineup - I don't think there's anyone else worth bringing up except to point out how bad they are now, like 1B Hanley Ramirez. The rotation should be decent, and although they'll really, really miss Fulmer, who's now with the Royals, Pomeranz is an alright replacement.