Thread: Tips
View Single Post
Old 03-27-2017, 05:33 PM   #25
NoOne
Hall Of Famer
 
NoOne's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 7,167
I forgot - look into pricing tickets as high as you can at all times... when you learn how high you can go for reasonable Wins expected, choose that Max price for season ticket price (must speculate wins for upcoming season to guess right max value -> from experience eventually. it will not reduce attendance (as of '17).. from there either apply some calculus or trial and error to maximize ticket revenue. this is one fo the few revenue streams you can actively manage and make more money... more money = wins. you will find that in in some situations that you will make more money when you sell fewer season tikets.

Assumption about that: winning season, you will want to sell fewer season tickets and losing season you want to sell more (referenceing % of total tickets sold as more/less).

Not an assumption: as you win more you cna up that price... if that is above season ticket price for a long enough period of time ( >1 independent variables at play here - calculus needed to find max total ticket revenue), you are definitely making less revenue than you optimally could have. this is basis for previous paragraph. defintiely applies to winning season, the assumption above was about losing seasons...


i like alot of the stuff sansterre says, too... although my application of those concepts is much different. if you interpret advanced stats as absolute or 100% accurate you will not use them as intended.

WAR is not tailored to roles, think of it like the forums recommend not paying much attention to overall - for the same exact reasons. League statistical environment is much different than when that equation was created - has it been adjusted to reflect htese chagnes over time, is that built into it? Regardless, it's still not 100% accurate and never can be due to its nature. Spending inefficiently can be a very good decision with zero repercussions in many situations that will arise without a 1-year tunnel vision.

sometimes the conepts expressed inthat post isn't from the right perspective. e.g. time is continuous, not exlcusive to 1 year's budget. Spending inefficiently can be a boon in many situations. However, it's defintely a dangerous toy to play with, if not good with financial management.

overall, war, ops+, contact (in game),... these are aggregates of multiple factors. this makes them less usfeul, but also more useful depending on context.

3war is not necessarily better than 2war... 75contact is not necesarly better than 70 contact. But, it is probably more likely that they are, just not any guarantee... that's all you can say with certainty (depends alot on ltm/lt of walks and BA etc etc the statistical environment of your league, not the MLB)

contact is only comprised of 3 factors, while the others mention contain more... it's better than war or ops+ relative to what it describes, but still has similar pitfalls. (babip, avoid K and power = contact rating... not all combinations that equate to "70" will be the same results.. and even more different per league statistical environment)

think about QBR or QB rating... it most defintieyl correlates to the best players, but does not perfectly define them in some instances. Same exact reasons... QBR is an advnaced stat for the NFL, not unlike war or ops+. it attempts to considers many factors and attempts to weight them logically (essentially).

the foundation of these advanced stats are not sound, yet, even if the basic theory involved is incontrevertably correct... don't put more stock in them than they are worth. the concepts may be incontrevertable, but application and equations are often poor at the moment. one only has to look at defensive metrics to see the worst of this.

not all positions and roles are the same and cannot be evauluated with a one-sized fits all statistic. A lead-off hitter is completely different thna a 3-4-5 hitter.

i use ratings that relate to the skills i want at various spots in my lineup. i do essentially hte smae thing as overall, but i am tailoring it to need.

as far as what i am wiling to pay... i definteyl won't draw a hard and fast line in teh sand based on WAR. i am a stickler, don't get me wrong, here. i let expensive players leave all the time. i have absolutely no emotional attachment in this regard and very willing to do so when it has merit. but if you don't scale it to your budget, you are applying the concet wrong, unless your budget is league average every year. ther are other moving parts and factors to consider when choosing how much you will pay, beside $/war and whether it says it is worth it.

once you know min/max ranges for various quality of players, it's an easy decision and relative to all near future budgets involved. i recognize immediately when a player is asking for too much. i don't need an equation, and you can't be so strict about that demarcation of efficient/innefficient... it needs some give... it needs a point of no return (let them go), but that's not 1 value without range calculated by deviding by WAR, which is inherently imprecise.

the differences between having a good player and accruing one needs to be considered, too. one is much easier than the other.. the question is whether it's worht it... i'd suggest this: if you rarely have budget problems, you probably need to spend more or are just about right... if you constantly have budget problems, you need to be stricter about how much you are willing to pay for various results.

Last edited by NoOne; 03-27-2017 at 06:19 PM.
NoOne is offline   Reply With Quote