OOTP Developments Forums - View Single Post - The Dead Zone: The Philadelphia Phillies (1984-

The_Myth · 06-24-2019, 10:39 PM

June 18, 1984

A Garry Maddox update. Since speaking out about playing time on June 7: .167/.167/.167. That’s not good. He has been perfect in the outfield this season, committing no errors and tallying two assists in just 115.2 innings. I’m still not in a place where I can unload “The Secretary,” simply because of a lack of center field depth, but as I ramp up trade talks, maybe I seek a throw-in who can play center.

June 19, 1984

At AAA Portland, Tony Ghelfi is diagnosed with elbow inflammation and will lose at least two months. He may be gone for all of 1984. With a 5.37 ERA, 51 Ks and 43 BBs, he wasn’t a huge loss, but it’s depth nonetheless. Moves to come:

RP/SP Arturo Gonzalez promoted to AAA Portland
SP Jim Olson promoted to AA Reading
SP Damon Dombek promoted to A Peninsula

This is a stop-the-bleeding move. Gonzalez is 28 and far from being a real contributor, so his place in Portland is to not get hurt and maybe throw a few innings a start. Olson (115.1 IP, 3.12 ERA, 68 K, 39 BB) deserves a look in AA. He’s 21, and may hang out there until midseason 1985.

Meanwhile, pitcher Larry Gura retires in Kansas City. Over a 15-year career, Gura went 114-85 with a 3.61 ERA. He was worth 16.9 WAR. A good career for a guy who became a top-flight starter in his early 30s.

Looking ahead to the offseason, if I’m moving on from De Jesus (who’s an impending free agent and possible in-season trade subject) and moving Von Hayes to a corner outfield spot, I’ll need a shortstop and a center fielder. And as Maddox is showing me, there’s nobody else on the current major league roster who can step in at those positions, at least for a hopeful contender.

Here’s what I have in the upper levels at both positions:

Shortstop

AAA Steve Jeltz - 25 - 35/42 - 55 SS - 218 PA, .242/.344/.328, 10 XBH
AAA Steve Kiefer - 23 - 32/43 - 45 SS - 66 PA, .246/.277/.492, 7 XBH
AAA Luis Aguayo - 25 - 39/44 - 40 SS - 176 PA, .149/.222/.234, 7 XBH
AA Ken Dowell - 23 - 28/34 - 50 SS - 242 PA, .251/.310/.284, 5 XBH

Center Field

AAA Tim Knight - 26 - 30/31 - 50 CF - 211 PA, .229/.294/.370, 15 XBH
AA Todd Soares - 22 - 34/34 - 50 CF - 64 PA, .189/.328/.415, 14 XBH

Currently I’m only comfortable giving Jeltz a full-time job, and almost exclusively because of his defense. His +3.2 zone rating is second in the Pacific Coast League, as is his 1.054 defensive efficiency, and his 4.24 range factor is pretty decent. He makes a quarter of unlikely plays, or 5 of 20, and 86.2 percent of likely plays; for comparison sake, De Jesus makes just 55.6 percent of those plays. In short, Jeltz can step in today for De Jesus and outclass him defensively. The offense is a work in progress, though the OBP is solid. Not sure if Jeltz is a starter on a contending team - it’s something I’ll have to determine at some point.

Meanwhile, center field is a black hole. Soares has potential but is obviously still green and needs time at AA Reading.

So what next? Let’s look at upcoming free agents at both positions:

Shortstop

Ozzie Smith - 29 - 56/57 - 80 SS - 284 PA, .240/.307/.320, 16 XBH (+9.9 ZR, 4.83 RF, 1.100 EFF)
Chris Speier - 33 - 45/45 - 70 SS - 248 PA, .215/.282/.291, 11 XBH (+6.6 ZR, 3.99 RF, 1.083 EFF)
Dale Berra - 27 - 42/42 - 55 SS - 209 PA, .213/.268/.282, 9 XBH (-1.6 ZR, 4.48 RF, .975 EFF)
Garry Templeton - 28 - 40/42 - 50 SS - 64 PA, .262/.297/.311, 2 XBH (-1.0 ZR, 4.08 RF, .982 EFF)

Center Field

Ruppert Jones - 29 - 53/53 - 65 CF - 255 PA, .220/.306/.332, 15 XBH
Fred Lynn - 32 - 57/57 - 50 CF - 295 PA, .237/.330/.385, 21 XBH

At short, it’s pretty clear that Smith would make a terrific fit on my ballclub. I don’t need big-time offense there, but I do need a guy with plenty of range who can make up for Juan Samuel’s deficiencies at second base. Smith is far and away the best defender at the position and would definitely be the starter on a contending club. Beyond him, Speier feels more like a utility player, Berra doesn’t have enough defensive prowess, and Templeton would be a big risk.

Meanwhile, neither Jones nor Lynn play center field as a primary position, while the other candidates at center are poor defenders and/or quad-A types. The options aren’t so good.

So maybe with shortstop I prioritize Smith (though he could always extend with St. Louis), and if he doesn’t sign with us, I can pivot to a lesser veteran to split time or play utility alongside Jeltz (hell, bringing back Kiko Garcia becomes an interesting option, as he’s a decent shortstop with a bench-worthy stick). But center is a position of critical need, and I may need to work the trade market to find a guy. More on that soon.

Finally, as an alternative, I always could simply keep Hayes in center, though he’s been horrendous there, and add a plus-plus offensive player in a corner and eat defense. There is one (and only one) player who fits that mold in free agency: Kirk Gibson (296 PA, .313/.405/.552, 30 XBH), who isn’t very good defensively but is an MVP candidate otherwise. It’s an idea, but I’d like it more if it wasn’t such a gamble.

In short, how I determine shortstop and center field over these next eight months will say everything about the future of my franchise.

Game 1984-68: Shea Stadium - Mets 7, Phillies 2 / 28-40

As has been the theme all season, the starter stays in too long and gives up a bunch of runs (in this case six, literally blowing our lead and turning the game into an unwinnable contest). If I can’t beat it into Paul Owens’ head that he needs to have a quicker hook, it may be time to move on.

June 20, 1984

Dave Wehrmeister clears waivers, so we pop him back into the Portland bullpen.

Game 1984-69: Shea Stadium - Mets 3, Phillies 2 / 28-41

George Foster hits homer No. 300. Meantime, we can’t get the big hit. Mike Schmidt, after an 0-for-4 game, is now at .241. Dang.

June 21, 1984

Game 1984-70: Shea Stadium - Phillies 7, Mets 5 / 29-41

We keep inviting the Mets back into the game, but Bill Campbell, Tug McGraw, and Al Holland shut the door. All the offensive starters get a hit, with Schmidt going 2-for-4, and Samuel getting on base thrice.

06-24-2019, 10:39 PM	#18
The_Myth Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jun 2019 Location: World Posts: 172	June 18, 1984 A Garry Maddox update. Since speaking out about playing time on June 7: .167/.167/.167. That’s not good. He has been perfect in the outfield this season, committing no errors and tallying two assists in just 115.2 innings. I’m still not in a place where I can unload “The Secretary,” simply because of a lack of center field depth, but as I ramp up trade talks, maybe I seek a throw-in who can play center. June 19, 1984 At AAA Portland, Tony Ghelfi is diagnosed with elbow inflammation and will lose at least two months. He may be gone for all of 1984. With a 5.37 ERA, 51 Ks and 43 BBs, he wasn’t a huge loss, but it’s depth nonetheless. Moves to come: RP/SP Arturo Gonzalez promoted to AAA Portland SP Jim Olson promoted to AA Reading SP Damon Dombek promoted to A Peninsula This is a stop-the-bleeding move. Gonzalez is 28 and far from being a real contributor, so his place in Portland is to not get hurt and maybe throw a few innings a start. Olson (115.1 IP, 3.12 ERA, 68 K, 39 BB) deserves a look in AA. He’s 21, and may hang out there until midseason 1985. Meanwhile, pitcher Larry Gura retires in Kansas City. Over a 15-year career, Gura went 114-85 with a 3.61 ERA. He was worth 16.9 WAR. A good career for a guy who became a top-flight starter in his early 30s. Looking ahead to the offseason, if I’m moving on from De Jesus (who’s an impending free agent and possible in-season trade subject) and moving Von Hayes to a corner outfield spot, I’ll need a shortstop and a center fielder. And as Maddox is showing me, there’s nobody else on the current major league roster who can step in at those positions, at least for a hopeful contender. Here’s what I have in the upper levels at both positions: Shortstop AAA Steve Jeltz - 25 - 35/42 - 55 SS - 218 PA, .242/.344/.328, 10 XBH AAA Steve Kiefer - 23 - 32/43 - 45 SS - 66 PA, .246/.277/.492, 7 XBH AAA Luis Aguayo - 25 - 39/44 - 40 SS - 176 PA, .149/.222/.234, 7 XBH AA Ken Dowell - 23 - 28/34 - 50 SS - 242 PA, .251/.310/.284, 5 XBH Center Field AAA Tim Knight - 26 - 30/31 - 50 CF - 211 PA, .229/.294/.370, 15 XBH AA Todd Soares - 22 - 34/34 - 50 CF - 64 PA, .189/.328/.415, 14 XBH Currently I’m only comfortable giving Jeltz a full-time job, and almost exclusively because of his defense. His +3.2 zone rating is second in the Pacific Coast League, as is his 1.054 defensive efficiency, and his 4.24 range factor is pretty decent. He makes a quarter of unlikely plays, or 5 of 20, and 86.2 percent of likely plays; for comparison sake, De Jesus makes just 55.6 percent of those plays. In short, Jeltz can step in today for De Jesus and outclass him defensively. The offense is a work in progress, though the OBP is solid. Not sure if Jeltz is a starter on a contending team - it’s something I’ll have to determine at some point. Meanwhile, center field is a black hole. Soares has potential but is obviously still green and needs time at AA Reading. So what next? Let’s look at upcoming free agents at both positions: Shortstop Ozzie Smith - 29 - 56/57 - 80 SS - 284 PA, .240/.307/.320, 16 XBH (+9.9 ZR, 4.83 RF, 1.100 EFF) Chris Speier - 33 - 45/45 - 70 SS - 248 PA, .215/.282/.291, 11 XBH (+6.6 ZR, 3.99 RF, 1.083 EFF) Dale Berra - 27 - 42/42 - 55 SS - 209 PA, .213/.268/.282, 9 XBH (-1.6 ZR, 4.48 RF, .975 EFF) Garry Templeton - 28 - 40/42 - 50 SS - 64 PA, .262/.297/.311, 2 XBH (-1.0 ZR, 4.08 RF, .982 EFF) Center Field Ruppert Jones - 29 - 53/53 - 65 CF - 255 PA, .220/.306/.332, 15 XBH Fred Lynn - 32 - 57/57 - 50 CF - 295 PA, .237/.330/.385, 21 XBH At short, it’s pretty clear that Smith would make a terrific fit on my ballclub. I don’t need big-time offense there, but I do need a guy with plenty of range who can make up for Juan Samuel’s deficiencies at second base. Smith is far and away the best defender at the position and would definitely be the starter on a contending club. Beyond him, Speier feels more like a utility player, Berra doesn’t have enough defensive prowess, and Templeton would be a big risk. Meanwhile, neither Jones nor Lynn play center field as a primary position, while the other candidates at center are poor defenders and/or quad-A types. The options aren’t so good. So maybe with shortstop I prioritize Smith (though he could always extend with St. Louis), and if he doesn’t sign with us, I can pivot to a lesser veteran to split time or play utility alongside Jeltz (hell, bringing back Kiko Garcia becomes an interesting option, as he’s a decent shortstop with a bench-worthy stick). But center is a position of critical need, and I may need to work the trade market to find a guy. More on that soon. Finally, as an alternative, I always could simply keep Hayes in center, though he’s been horrendous there, and add a plus-plus offensive player in a corner and eat defense. There is one (and only one) player who fits that mold in free agency: Kirk Gibson (296 PA, .313/.405/.552, 30 XBH), who isn’t very good defensively but is an MVP candidate otherwise. It’s an idea, but I’d like it more if it wasn’t such a gamble. In short, how I determine shortstop and center field over these next eight months will say everything about the future of my franchise. Game 1984-68: Shea Stadium - Mets 7, Phillies 2 / 28-40 As has been the theme all season, the starter stays in too long and gives up a bunch of runs (in this case six, literally blowing our lead and turning the game into an unwinnable contest). If I can’t beat it into Paul Owens’ head that he needs to have a quicker hook, it may be time to move on. June 20, 1984 Dave Wehrmeister clears waivers, so we pop him back into the Portland bullpen. Game 1984-69: Shea Stadium - Mets 3, Phillies 2 / 28-41 George Foster hits homer No. 300. Meantime, we can’t get the big hit. Mike Schmidt, after an 0-for-4 game, is now at .241. Dang. June 21, 1984 Game 1984-70: Shea Stadium - Phillies 7, Mets 5 / 29-41 We keep inviting the Mets back into the game, but Bill Campbell, Tug McGraw, and Al Holland shut the door. All the offensive starters get a hit, with Schmidt going 2-for-4, and Samuel getting on base thrice.