[Bub13]

Can you consider a 71-win season a success? Well, yes, when you won just 57 games the previous season. I would take a 14 game improvement each season, wouldn't you? However...while we made improvements at the plate and in the field, pitching remains an issue. And there are some other, more fundamental issues to consider.

Peripatetic owner/annoyance Alexis Pagan drops me a note at the start of November. He's happy we're improving, but disappointed that we won 'only' 71 games. He's happy we upgraded in center field (Drayton), but he wants someone even better. He's happy we increased attendance to 31K, but now he wants 34K. He also wants me to make $15M profit next year, maintain a top-ten farm system, and win a championship in the next six seasons. And he's cut my budget again, like last year: down a million, to $94M. A little bird in the front office tells me he's planning on dropping the budget by a million each of the next two seasons as well. I'm expected to spend about $65M on player salaries. (We ended the season at just over $56M.) He ends with "Don't suck completely! I'll check in again next year. Good luck! AP"

Silly man. Just to spite him, I'm sticking with Drayton in center, will probably spend over $65M on salaries, and will leave him with a nickel profit. And while our farm system was rated #1 this season, the top five players all ended up in Hawaii, and thus will not count towards next year's rating. We won't be dead last, but we won't be anywhere near the top, either.

Let's look at where we stand going into the off-season.

Designated Hitter. After cleaning house in July, Erik Hodge settled into the role full-time. Although he ended up with only 9 HR in 310 PA, his power ratings are good enough that I expect more from him next year. He's a lefty, but has very little drop off against left-handed pitching. He's under team control for 2036 and '37, at league minimum.

Catcher. Austin Collins took over full-time after Lucas Crabtree was traded in July. He was solid at the plate, and better than expected behind it. He's under team control for the next two years. Willie Zamorano is a solid backup, but is only under control for 2036, and is pushing for more playing time. I'll have to take a close look at what's brewing in the system as he'll probably be gone during or after next season.

First Base. Jeremy Dunklee was our team MVP. He's a monster at the plate, and I think he's certainly capable of throwing out a triple crown-type season one day. I signed him long-term last year, so while expensive (11.5M), he's locked up for the long term.

Second Base. Ki-Nam Kim came over in June and brought a lot of stability to the position. However, he made 4.9M and wants a raise to 6M next year, despite nearing 41 years of age. Right now I'm thinking I need to sink some money into pitching, I probably won't make him an offer. Jamie Forbes lost his starting role to Kim, due to mediocre hitting and atrocious fielding. Josh Robertson is the future, but he's at least a year away. I could move Hebert over from third, but his limited range is better suited for that position. I'll have to make a trade or go after an affordable free agent here.

Third Base. Ryan Hebert doesn't hit home runs, doesn't have the strongest arm or slickest glove, but he gets results. As long as he hits .300 with 30-40 doubles, and doesn't hurt us in the field, the position is his. He's under control for next year, but could see a significant bump in arbitration for 2037.

Shortstop. Like Kim at second, Tony Castro came over during the season and stabilized a sore spot in the lineup. He made 1.5M last year, but the contract he signed with NYY before the trade bumps him up to 2.96M for next year. Affordable, but I may have to cut somewhere to pay for some upcoming arbitrations. Adam Groff, our #1 overall pick this summer, is far enough along to get a strong look in camp. Watch this space.

Left Field. Ian Hoppmann was fantastic for us over the last quarter of the season after coming over from New Orleans. He slashed .329/.394/.406 and played flawless defense. However...he'll make $9M next year. Right now I'm thinking of putting one of Chris Wiggins or Travis McArthur in left, and using Hoppmann to get a quality middle infielder. Wiggins will make minimum next year, but gets a big arbitration bump the year after.

Center Field. Chris Wiggins got the most starts, but Josh Drayton was our best option here by the end of the year. Drayton's range is better suited for center; Wiggins' arm for right. Drayton's bat came around for us as well, and he combined for 21 HR and 4.8 WAR between Hawaii and San Francisco. He's signed for 3.5M next year, but that balloons 6.2M for 2037, and 13M for 2038 and beyond. These escalating salaries make it imperative that we keep working hard to develop from within. Robbie Christopher started 102 games across all three spots, and is the backup here. He's not a natural CF, but is our only backup who's rated there. Marc Ferenczi is a better option in the field, but was a bust at the plate. He'll be 30 next year, and could figure, but won't develop any more.

Right Field. Travis McArthur seems like the better fit, as his arm just edges out Wiggins'. But Wiggins had the better year in the field, so I'll just have to see who plays better in camp. Either would be good here, and the 'loser' will just slot over in left, where they're both well rated. McArthur still has some room to grow, and I really hope he can improve upon his .246 average. He did hit 11 HR in 250 PA, and has 25-30 HR potential. His batting numbers did go up as the season progressed; I think he'll have a breakout season in 2036. Kelvin Moreno is the corner backup. He's just adequate, bringing some power and a strong arm, but that's it.

Starting Rotation. This was a sore point all season, and a source of some disappointment for me. I am very much a "set it and forget it" GM, and having to tinker here all year really wore on me. Ken Clark, Bobby Anderson, and Jimmy Wunderlich were all brought in during the off-season to give us stable, worry-free starting. That didn't happen: Clark and Wunderlich were inconsistent all year, and Anderson was barely impressive before getting hurt for the season in early June. Clark is the highest rated of the three, and most likely to stick around as he's affordable at 3.5M for the next two seasons. Wunderlich jumps to 5.5M (up from 3.7M) next year, and escalates slowly after that. Anderson jumps all the way to 8.5M (from 3.5M), and 13.3M starting in 2037. Note to self: never trade with the spendthrift Yankees again. Rich Rivera had the best season, but pulled in only a 2.4 WAR, not exactly Ace material. He's our only true power pitcher, leading the team in K's and the starters in K/9. He's affordable at only 4M too. But he's wild, walking 5 per 9 innings, which I don't like. Still, I'll keep him at least into camp, as I need enough arms around for insurance, if nothing else. Assuming all four of the above stay around, the #5 spot is wide open. Angelo Partida looked good in 12 starts, producing a 3.43 ERA, the best for any Hawaii starter, ever. But his FIP was a worrying 5.49, and he had a negative WAR, so he's not guaranteed anything yet. Steve Brock also looked decent in his 16 starts, and produced better power numbers than did Partida. Both will make miminum next year. Brent Adams was just fair, but right now looks more like an emergency fill-in than a potential full-timer. Michael Bridenbaker made 10 starts, but got worse as he went along. He's a strong arm, but wild. Bryan Hardin has good numbers, but low stamina, and may be better suited for long and middle relief. He'll get a look in camp anyway. The best prospect in the low minors, Rob Hart, is 2-3 years away, minimum. Another worry: no lefthanders in this crowd. (Our only true LHP prospect is Bobby Little, who produced a 3.5 WAR in AAA. I want his stuff and control to develop more before throwing him into the rotation; worrisome that he hasn't developed much in the two years we've had him.)

Bullpen. Closer Jay Yates was the Hoyt Wilhelm Award winner. Jack Shewmake was a top-notch set up guy, likewise Adam McAdam by the end of the season. Ryan Key ate up a lot of innings (87), but was wildly inconsistent. Sonny Balderston, Ivan Lopez, Alex Lopez, and Evan Larkins rounded out the regulars, and none impressed. Ivan Lopez had the best stats of the lot, but wants a huge raise over his 700K from last year. He's 35, and won't get it, at least not from me. Yates and Shewmake are due substantial arbitration raises, which will eat into my off-season spending budget, but they're worth it. Problem is, I'll probably have to build the rest of the pen on the cheap. Except...Key, A.Lopez, Balderston, and McAdam want over 7M combined. Can I afford a 10M+ bullpen? I may have to. On the farm, Roberto Castillo got some time in the bigs, but pitched poorly. Travis Kelley did well in AAA, but needs a lot more development before he's ready. Pat Stanley spent the year in AA and might be a decent stop-gap, if he has a good camp.

......

Off-season needs look like this: sort out the middle infield, find some cheap bullpen arms, maybe find a lefty starting pitcher, dig up lots of cash. Simple.

Next up: 2035-36 Off-Season