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Old 04-25-2018, 02:09 PM   #2
NoOne
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primary concern: high stuff - 2 pitches highly rated.

movement - above average - hr/9 concerns, right?

control somewhere near ~1/2 scale
-- exceptions: if they maintain a respectable BB/9ip over time, the proof is in the pudding and even if below 1/2 scale still good enough control. (depends on league baselines.. mlb- maybe 3-3.5bb/9 is a good line i the sand to draw?)

so the most likely dominant guys will have Max or >max stuff.. .60-70+movement and ~50 control give or take... higher is of course better. this is who i want as my Cl/SU and if possible top MR.. 80/100-to-max stuff for a top MR is good too. movement and control conerns remain teh same for MR, but cost of a max stuff RP likely precludes them except for cases of club-controlled younger players.

WHIP, HR/9, K/9 and BB/9 with a large sample will tell me whether results match their high ratings... with RP, you typically don't have a good sample for 5+ years, unfortunately. even then a bit skecy... and by the time they do, you have to be worreid about aging, lol.

so, some speculation is required. @ 60-80ip in any given year, you can expect an extreme amount of volatility.

this is a lesson about the law of independent results... playing musical chairs will only hurt you if they are are not similar in ratings. ie i will knee-jerk react to a rp's down season if i have other rp of similar quality, but i won't bump up a severely lower-rated guy just because my 76/80 rp i shaving a bad 30-40ip start to season.

i will look at their game logs before reacting to current small sample stats of that year... is it 1 bad game out of 10? in that case i don't care if it's a 5.00era, lol... 9/10 outings are good.

always ride the best odds... ignore small-sample results

as far as roles and depth chart:

my rotation will heavily dictate what i do. how many innings do i need out of my pen? this will tell me whether i need 1 SU or 2SU and maybe a secondary role for SU to cover heavy dependency on a pen.

strong rotation, i may have 1 primary SU and a secondary role to cover his tired days.

i want my best RP to get ~70-80+ IP. i want to minimize use of lesser-RP. i wil do whatever is needed with the depth chart to meet that end relative to current context -- even if it is unorthodox. knowing pecking order of how the ai works is important...

e.g. i don't have a primary long reliever if i want the MR with secondary LR to get those innings... i'll move that lesser guy as a MR-use less often with a Long relief secondary role to make sure he's choosen 2nd for those long-relief opportunities. if the ai is stil choosing that lesser-guy as teh LR, i will remove that secondary role too.

i don't like 'avoid high leverage' becuae tehy will get used more often in many cases. i prefer 'use less often' and bury at bottom of MR if i don't wnat them used as much. in cases of a weak rotation and heavy dependency on a bullpen, you probably want to use 'avoid high leverage' because it will help keep your pen fresher for more important situations.. but if you have a strong rotation, those situations are already spread out enough. (basically if you see only ~50ip from your CL/SU or MR-high useage, you should not use 'avoid high leverage' because they can easily work more without a negative effect and the pen is often fresh at all times anyway, since they only get ~50ip/year)

it's not unusual for me to use my best MR as a long relief guy too when i have 5 sp that go 200 or more innings and an ace eating up 250ip each year. (likely gets 80-100ip in any context)... or a future SP as a long relief / high leverage guy that can get ~100ip or more.

on better teams, you want some good options for long relief, because your ofense will get you back into those games often. i'd rather a top MR-type guy get long relief work in that context than a lesser RP.. then the few times my SU guys are tired, maybe it uses a slightly less optimal guy, but it's a net positive due to all the games i got back into otherwise.

i wouldn't do that with a weak rotation and a weak offense, though.


Context is everything.. there's no one-sized-fits-all answer to this.

Last edited by NoOne; 04-25-2018 at 02:21 PM.
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