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I did multiple simulations to test and something is definitely wrong. Looking at Lou Gehrig's simulated stats showed me that they are basing the recalc on the next season instead of the current season. Because in my simulation, in 1938 he had like 500 at bats but only hit around .200 with 10 home runs but in in 1938 in real life he hit .295 with 29 home runs. 1939 was the year where he only hit .147 in 33 at bats due to being diagnosed with the disease. So they are basing the 1938 ratings on the 1939 season. This is a bug in the game
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