Quote:
Originally Posted by Sweed
Exactly, not in the statistical record where in real life we know it when we see it. What we don't know is what does the OOTP engine do?
Is there a play in the engine that takes where the ball is hit, speed of runner, arm of OF and makes it a "runner advance" play and this is where we get the throw outs? Or does the engine, based on some real life data (yes, we're discussing if this data is wrong), decide this play is going to be a single and an out trying to advance?
In the first case we'll only know how many are thrown out as those that are safe are simply doubles.
In the second case there are no attempts at all just the game having a "real" number as a target. As you said a percentage of all singles. I certainly hope this is not the system as it opens it up to all players and doesn't consider speed, arm etc. Nor should the game select only fast players and have them thrown out just to satisfy a number. I would like to think it uses the same or similar system it uses to go first th third or second to home.
In either case I would think, it is a number that can be adjusted if Markus & Matt agree there is a problem.
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Quickly we learn why this is hard to model.
It has to happen a certain percentage of the time.
Pull a number from an orifice - 1% of singles.
But, you're right. It shouldn't must happen to a random 1%.
So, there needs to be a 1% baseline. Then add on if it's: an aggressive baserunner, a poor baserunner, a strong-armed OFer, etc
And subtract for the opposite.