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Old 08-24-2004, 03:46 PM   #12
fhomess
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Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 3,584
Batters:
CF Dark Horse Allen
CF Ben "Rabbi" Baum
CF "Ray of Light" Brown
3B "Frenchie" Fournier
RF Nick Graves
2B Jerry "Slap" Hertzog
1B Patrick Seifried
LF Glendon "Bull" Zegri

Pitchers:
Mark Krosser
Dave McBean

Can someone explain to me why Mark Krosser always gets more votes than Dave McBean? In my book, these guys deserve to go in together. McBean was the equal to Krosser and people are missing that fact.

Krosser has the edge in wins, 266-254, a difference of 12 wins. McBean, however was 30 losses better than Krosser, 181-151. If you calculate the Fibonacci Win Points, McBean has the lead by 262-243 (the formula is FWP=W*W%+Games over .500 as stated in Bill James' Politics of Glory). Now wins are obviously not the only factor. Krosser edges McBean in ERA by a very slim margin (2.50-2.52). McBean edges Krosser in WHIP (1.10-1.06). Both players won 1 Pitcher of the Year award and 1 World Series each.

Krosser beats McBean in CG's 419-386, but McBean had more SHO's (39-55). There are two points in Krosser's favor that I see as not having a match by McBean: IP and K's. Krosser was good for about 400 more IP, or 1.5 seasons, and he struck out 602 more batters, which is significant. I just don't think that IP and K's are enough to vote for one guy over the other.

I just recently read through the Fibonacci Win Points chapter in James' book, which is why I thought I'd apply it here, and it's pretty interesting. It's basically a way of trying to compare players like Sandy Koufax who didn't play as long but were very good with players who played much longer but didn't win at a high rate. James points out that it's only one factor in the analysis since it really only focuses on wins which is team dependant. That's probably why it's not a very popular stat. The other reason it's probably not as popular is that there's not really a good equivalent for batters, although James does present one in his book with some pretty strong reservations about it. Anyway, when I ran the numbers it was one more reason for me to conclude that I think McBean is Krosser's equal, and continue my frustration that others don't seem to notice it as much as I do.

For what it's worth, here are the Fibonacci Win Points for the pitchers on this year's ballot:
262 - Dave McBean
243 - Mark Krosser
239 - "Nasty Ned" Fargo
238 - Tobe Palmer
217 - Will Haggan
181 - "Evil" Gary Archer

And the current HOFers:
440 - Andrew Murphy
407 - Tim Lopresto
309 - Cecil Tan
296 - Scott Fenner
288 - Allen Albertini
284 - Bowie Castellon
263 - Raymond Gindler
234 - Ahrend Nagel

Other Notables:
448 - Jethro Lee
430 - Frank Smith
347 - Otto "Kaiser" Kahle
342 - Anthony "Punchy" Cote
299 - Art Booth
287 - David Wickersham
282 - Bourbon Allen
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