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NoOne · 01-20-2018, 10:14 PM

it's a comparitive criticism. if the #'s say it's better, it is better. i would never argue that.. (assumes integrity of testing methods and results)

But, it definiteyl negates a large poriton of guys ahead of him to drive in... if he average ~4-5ab, he gets 1/4th to 1/5th less rbi opportunities in a season + crappiest hitters on team batting 7-8-9 and a backup catch often ==> that is a huge difference to overcome by what ever gain you have of putting him leadoff.

springer and soriano examples are young players... trust me, springer won;t be leadoff unless they literally have no one else that can fill that role... an extreme situation only. he will score the ~same amount of runs batting 3rd, and knock in 20-25% more RBI. if he does score less it will be far outweighed by rbi increase.

it's not a total waste leadoff. It can be used elsewhere with greater returns all other things remainings the same in a higher % of situations you'll encounter, i'd feel safe with that bet.

most realities will force you to put sluggers in predominantly slugging roles in the lineup -- harder to procure them and can only afford so many. if you have the luxury to put a power guy leadoff, that's awesome.. and a 1100-1300 run offesne, most likely allows that to be a realistic option without sacrificing much or even a possible net gain. (not a power surge stat environment, my baseline era is ~4.10. it's rare to reach 1300 even with 9 best batters playing 162g each). > ~'27 yanks.

i don't look for players that fit roles... i look at who my best rakers are, since they are the toughest to get -- they go 3-4-5 and then i start filling in around it based on best ability relative to role. i.e. if somewhat similar i put speed 1-2 rather than 7-8-9, but high ba/obp is my key for leadoff even if a bit slow. (1100r offense - about a 20 run difference if a ~.380-400obp guy can run very fast vs very slow from experience, even smaller in a lower scoring offense). a good leadoff guy gets ~140runs... excellent ~160.. if they don'tmeet that i don't like them leadoff. every choice i make is about break-even analysis, not a guess. but a ~1000run offense is alot different than a ~800 run offense.

800+ish RS team: batting leadoff with a ~.300 BA and ~30hr might net ~80-100 rbi on average and ~100runs. batting 4th it's ~120+ rbi average and ~100runs. runs scored isn't that large of a difference. it's easier to score runs than drive them in relative to talent you can procure with consistency.

at an extreme - 1000-1100run offense -- still ~80-100rbi leadoff (see plenty sub-100 with 30hr and high average, and i have solid hitters 7-8-9 most years), and about 140-150+ rbi batting 4th. the better the offense the more this will be exagerated for obvious reasons... it's possible with crappy offenses the difference is small enough to be outweighed by unusual choices, but who cares with a non-WS-caliber team.

As well as the repercussions of moving sluggers up in the lineup 1 spot to fill the gap left when you moved one to leadoff -- i.e. most often lesser players moved up 1 spot for comparison of entire picture and net loss/gain. This is a huge hole to dig out of... borderline easy to tell with the eye, here for any reasonable situation. gaining ~20 xbh where they are less likely to be helpful cannot possibly outweigh all of this.

if they are top% rbi rakers, reducing their rbi opportunities doesn't bode well. even 2nd is rough. in those ~1100run offenses, even 2nd doesn't get more than 110-120rbi. it's a significant jump 3-4-5-- same player, noticeably more rbi (+20 at least just from 2nd to 3rd in lineup - well with a ~1100r offense. batting 2nd may be worth it in a 800rs offense for a soriano/springer like situation, but i don't think they have 5-6+ sluggers do they?).

01-20-2018, 10:14 PM	#7
NoOne Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,167	it's a comparitive criticism. if the #'s say it's better, it is better. i would never argue that.. (assumes integrity of testing methods and results) But, it definiteyl negates a large poriton of guys ahead of him to drive in... if he average ~4-5ab, he gets 1/4th to 1/5th less rbi opportunities in a season + crappiest hitters on team batting 7-8-9 and a backup catch often ==> that is a huge difference to overcome by what ever gain you have of putting him leadoff. springer and soriano examples are young players... trust me, springer won;t be leadoff unless they literally have no one else that can fill that role... an extreme situation only. he will score the ~same amount of runs batting 3rd, and knock in 20-25% more RBI. if he does score less it will be far outweighed by rbi increase. it's not a total waste leadoff. It can be used elsewhere with greater returns all other things remainings the same in a higher % of situations you'll encounter, i'd feel safe with that bet. most realities will force you to put sluggers in predominantly slugging roles in the lineup -- harder to procure them and can only afford so many. if you have the luxury to put a power guy leadoff, that's awesome.. and a 1100-1300 run offesne, most likely allows that to be a realistic option without sacrificing much or even a possible net gain. (not a power surge stat environment, my baseline era is ~4.10. it's rare to reach 1300 even with 9 best batters playing 162g each). > ~'27 yanks. i don't look for players that fit roles... i look at who my best rakers are, since they are the toughest to get -- they go 3-4-5 and then i start filling in around it based on best ability relative to role. i.e. if somewhat similar i put speed 1-2 rather than 7-8-9, but high ba/obp is my key for leadoff even if a bit slow. (1100r offense - about a 20 run difference if a ~.380-400obp guy can run very fast vs very slow from experience, even smaller in a lower scoring offense). a good leadoff guy gets ~140runs... excellent ~160.. if they don'tmeet that i don't like them leadoff. every choice i make is about break-even analysis, not a guess. but a ~1000run offense is alot different than a ~800 run offense. 800+ish RS team: batting leadoff with a ~.300 BA and ~30hr might net ~80-100 rbi on average and ~100runs. batting 4th it's ~120+ rbi average and ~100runs. runs scored isn't that large of a difference. it's easier to score runs than drive them in relative to talent you can procure with consistency. at an extreme - 1000-1100run offense -- still ~80-100rbi leadoff (see plenty sub-100 with 30hr and high average, and i have solid hitters 7-8-9 most years), and about 140-150+ rbi batting 4th. the better the offense the more this will be exagerated for obvious reasons... it's possible with crappy offenses the difference is small enough to be outweighed by unusual choices, but who cares with a non-WS-caliber team. As well as the repercussions of moving sluggers up in the lineup 1 spot to fill the gap left when you moved one to leadoff -- i.e. most often lesser players moved up 1 spot for comparison of entire picture and net loss/gain. This is a huge hole to dig out of... borderline easy to tell with the eye, here for any reasonable situation. gaining ~20 xbh where they are less likely to be helpful cannot possibly outweigh all of this. if they are top% rbi rakers, reducing their rbi opportunities doesn't bode well. even 2nd is rough. in those ~1100run offenses, even 2nd doesn't get more than 110-120rbi. it's a significant jump 3-4-5-- same player, noticeably more rbi (+20 at least just from 2nd to 3rd in lineup - well with a ~1100r offense. batting 2nd may be worth it in a 800rs offense for a soriano/springer like situation, but i don't think they have 5-6+ sluggers do they?). Last edited by NoOne; 01-20-2018 at 10:24 PM.