Quote:
Originally Posted by moore4807
OK, but by your example - by your going into the players file via commissioner status, otherwise you would never know what their potential is... So your betting the house on Conner McDavid puts you in the same boat as the LA Kings who bet the house on Lauri Tukonen 10 yrs ago with the 11th pick - but was a complete bust at the NHL level despite having every "potential" skill set needed for success at that level. Rico Fata comes to mind as another top ten draft pick that never went anywhere while players below him went on to have great careers... That is what is wrong with your hypothesis - your "cheating" the system by going into the commissioner mode and not letting the randomness occur - if thats the way you play fine - I would just be up front about it when dispensing advice to other players who may toe the line when it comes to gamesmanship.
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Well yes, I'm basing this off my knowledge of playing in commish mode to look at true ratings, but that doesn't mean what I say can't be applied to not doing that (I don't play in commish mode except when I'm doing testing). The point I'm making is that stuff like trade value and draft position more accurately reflects those true potentials than what your scouts projections are. While I have looked at many true potential ratings to come to this conclusion, I do not need to look at them to apply this knowledge.
You are right when you draft a player who is say 6.0a/9.0a, you don't know what his true potential is. When he drops to a 6.0a/8.5a, half way through the season there are essentially two explanations. The first being that this player was simply never as good as a 9.0 potential and the 8.5 is a more accurate representation. The second being that your player still is actually a 9.0 and your scouts projection is off.
However, what this is not, is poor development of a player causing an actual drop in potential. Ruining a players development doesn't show up in a reduction of potential until the player is ~25 years of age, and then it is a reduction to his current overall ability. It would look something like 4.0/9.0 -> 4.0/9.0 -> 4.5/9.0 -> 4.5/9.0 -> 4.5/9.0 -> 4.5/4.5 (as an arbitrary example). These drops that go like 4.0/9.0 -> 4.5/8.5 -> 5.0/8.0, don't represent improper development but rather your scouts reassessment of that player, which are sometimes closer to their true ratings and sometimes not. In the case of McDavid, it is easy for me to know it is the latter based on his reputation, and for me previous play-throughs of the game. This is one reason I prefer drafting with CPU generated players. However, it is often easy to know whether or not these random drops are accurate based on other factors in the game. Sizeable drops (say by 2 potential points or more) are often bogus. If the AI is still willing to trade a heap of stuff for your declined player, your scouts are probably wrong. If said player was high on the draft list and now your scouts think he is garbage, your scouts are probably wrong. If the CPU drafted the player high, and your scouts think he sucks, your scouts are probably wrong. And finally, if you're player is a 5.5/5.5 or something and still improving in the development report, you can be sure your scouts are wrong about his projection.
To elaborate, like I said I drafted Jyrki Antonen in my dynasty - he was a 4.0c/8.0c when I drafted him and now he is a 4.0a/4.0a. I don't know what his true ratings are, but despite my scouts ****ty opinion of him I can be sure his ratings are very good. For one, he was in the top 5 of the draft rankings which usually contain the best players. Opposing teams will still give up a lot of stuff (according to my assistant GM) in exchange for him. And lastly despite apparently reached his crummy potential, he still improves every month in the development report screen. So because of all of this, I can be reasonably sure that his true ratings are still quite good, and that I should ignore my scouts opinion. I'm not sure whether or not he'll end up being an 8.0/8.0, worse or better, but I am quite confident he'll turn into a good player.