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Old 11-20-2017, 05:33 AM   #3
JeffR
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Most hotness increases aren't guaranteed; the better the performance the more likely one is to happen, but it's never certain. The actual number of saves is a fairly large factor, too; if those .933's are nights where he stopped 14 of 15, that's less likely to get an increase than if he stopped 42 of 45. 5 GA and a save% of .878 suggests 36 saves on 41 shots for the backup, which is enough to have a chance of getting a heat increase (albeit with the lowest possible chance for one based on save totals alone.) A win alone also carries a chance of an increase, but it's a small one and wouldn't be checked in this case because the save chance is a bit higher.

The number of starts the backup was getting would be influenced by the goalie use settings for backup start frequency, start hottest goalie settings, or using the best goalie. If the first two were high and the latter low, that's not going to give the top guy much of a preference over somebody rated only 1.5 stars worse, particularly if the backup gets hot.
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