Quote:
Originally Posted by itsmb8
You guys arent getting the point. Im not saying the projections are terrible, im saying his actual ability level is a bit higher, at least in terms of BA. He has the contact ability of a .310 hitter, but his BA this season will probably be around .298 because he will face a lot of tough opponents.
The problem is OOTP take the projections and saying his ability is of a .298 hitter, so when you run the simulations, he will actually hit under that because he's facing tough opponents in the sim, even though it was already accounted for in the projections.
|
It does appear that generating ratings based on projections, particularly with an unbalanced/divisional schedule, would tend to favour strong teams in weak divisions and hurt weak teams in strong divisions (at the extremes). Is there not a "double dipping" of the strength of schedule effect? I guess Cleveland and the AL Central would be at the other end of the scale?
I don't know this as fact [I'm an Aussie so MLB projections are unheard of here] but one would assume the projections factor a number of variables such as ballpark, own team strength (think a batter being protected) and strength of schedule (ie division).
I guess it depends on whether OOTP uses the final variable adjusted data or the raw independent data (based on prior performance and growth/decline curves, etc) for their ratings generation?
It would seem that projections result in any given player having completely different projected stats, and therefore potentially OOTP ratings, based on which team they play for.
So do Manny or Bryce, for example, enter OOTP20 with ratings determined by who they signed for? Whereas, in theory, shouldn't they be entering OOTP20 with the same ratings regardless of who they signed for (and then the OOTP simulator applies the ballpark effect, his own teammates apply the own team strength effect and the schedule applies the divisional bias effect... along with any other effects)?
As the OP mentions, I also wonder how the Rockies are treated? Does OOTP generate ratings for Rockies players based on the ZIPS projections that are already park factored, then does the OOTP simulator apply a further park factor when simulating?
I guess this could all be a moot point if OOTP ratings are generated based on the raw projected data and one would hope that's the case.