[BirdWatcher]

I realize that I left a thread about possible future WPK Hall-of-Famers dangling a bit.
And apologies, but I'm not going to tie that up here, or probably at all. Not exactly anyway.

But I do want to share just a bit of information about my evolving approach to eyeballing HOF potential in the league and a process to help me make educated voting decisions when the time comes.

Basically, I have created a spreadsheet (of course) where I track potential HOF'ers in six categories: WAR (career), JAWS, HOF Monitor, HOF Standards, Black Ink, and Gray Ink.

Then, using MLB as my guide post, I identify what an average HOF'er score might be in each of these categories (varying, of course, by position for some categories (WAR, JAWS) and by batter or pitcher for others (Black Ink, Gray Ink). Now don't get me wrong, I don't consider the MLB Hall of Fame to be ideal in it's makeup. But given the long history and number of inductees, I think it's a fair enough sample to smooth out some of the irregularities. And I should say that I am not philosophically either a Big Hall or Small Hall kind of guy. I think the numbers in Cooperstown are fine, even if some of the individual choices are poor. (Both players in the Hall and players left out of the Hall.)

Anyway, having found the middle ground, I have then identified 5 classifications within each category in terms of how players numbers match-up. These range from Very Weak (well below MLB HOF average) to Very Strong (well above MLB HOF average) with the obvious classifications between those extremes. Now I apply points to these classifications, with the middle category (in the average MLB HOF range) getting a small plus point total and anything below this getting negative points and anything above getting increasing positive points. That's where I started but after applying this to my current potential HOF list in the WPK, I realized it needed a bit of tweaking.
So what I did was take my uniform plus/minus numbers (-5, -3, +1, +3, +5) which went across categories and tweaked it to give greatest weight to higher JAWS totals, and somewhat greater weight to positive career WAR and HOF Monitor scores, while keeping HOF Standards, Black Ink, and Gray Ink where I started. Below average to poor numbers maintain their uniform negative points score across categories.

(Why do positive HOF Monitor scores get more weight than positive HOF Standards scores? I couldn't really tell you, other than this just felt right. It might feel less right when the league has been up and running longer and potential HOF players have on average longer careers than this first batch of superstars. And this is certainly a work in progress and tweaks will almost surely be made.)

Okay, let me get to the meat here:
Using this methodology and applying it to our list of potential HOF'ers so far in the WPK these were the results (leaving off those who didn't come close yet.)
(Note: Best possible score is 41, worst possible score is -30.)
Jake Harris, +21
Cheol-han Lee, +19
Felix Lopez, +17
Jamel McNeil, +14
Jesus Casiano, +13
Jesus Hernandez, +9
Travis Johnson, +5
Nate Bennett, +5
Brad Tesh, +2
Ryan Rodgers, +2

Those are all the players with positive scores. Now my feeling is that the way I have this set up, pretty much any player with a positive score is a probable HOF'er. But those in the single digits are likely not first ballot guys and the closer to zero the better the chance that a player might not make it, especially when other factors- like Bill James' Keltner List- might drag them lower than the raw numbers. The more I look at this list the more I think this method is off to a pretty good start. These look like WPK HOF'ers to me. With the possible exception being Brad Tesh, whose raw numbers are pretty darn good but who is a bit low in HOF Standards and quite low in Black Ink. He's one of those fly under the radar stars.

The next layer:
Andy Wilson, -2
Jose Santos, -8
Josh Jenkins, -8
Jamison Bash, -10
Chris Hernandez, -12
Ju-ao Ju, -12
Pat Brooks, -12
Curtis Horah, -14
Jaime Schardein, -16
Lazaro Lowndes, -16
Benni Heregger, -16
Danny Sanchez, -20
Antonio Sosa, -22
Jesse Cibula, -22
Cody Kane, -22

I should probably say here that this is set up so that the worst player in the game would score the same as a quite good player who just happened to score at the top of the lowest HOF category ranking in each of the 6 categories. But the worst player in baseball will never even be subjected to this test. It requires a certain minimum level of quality even to make the list (generally a JAWS minimum or at least one very high score in another category).

So while Andy Wilson scores slightly negative that basically means he lines up pretty well with an average MLB HOF'er, and my sense is that if you apply the Keltner List to Wilson he is probably a WPK HOF'er. Josh Jenkins is still young and talented enough that his -8 score is probably a good sign for him. Not as good a sign for veteran starting pitcher Jose Santos, but the Keltner intangibles might push him over.
I'm not surprised to see Bash at -10. Given his age and minimal current talent, I doubt he makes it. Although the same could be said for Chris Hernandez, who is -12, yet I've always thought of him as at least a borderline HOF'er. Hernandez definitely wins over Bash in the reputation area. Curtis Horah and Lazaro Lowndes are two of the youngest players here and will likely make it into positive territory eventually. Cibula is young and was once upon a time one of the most exciting and talented players in the league. He is a shell of his former self at age 28. He could still make it. My guess is he won't. Cody Kane is 29 and still a great player and a solid citizen. He has a chance.

I don't see this as a predictive tool. I don't know what algorithm the program uses for HOF votes but I assume that things like JAWS, HOF Monitor, Standards, Black Ink and Gray Ink are factors, especially given where they live in former and current player records in league history. But I do think it can be very helpful for me in evaluating players post-career and in making my own voting decisions.