Quote:
Originally Posted by Curve Ball Dave
Unfortunately, in the case of Kris Bryant his stats predicted his exit velocity, not the other way around. As documented here Bryant's career low in HR rate was also accompanied by a career low in EV (85.8 compared to a career average of 88.1). Knowing the actual number simply validated the observation which I have said on numerous times EV can do. The conclusion that Bryant wasn't hitting the ball as hard as before was supported by data other than AEV, meaning knowing the actual AEV number was not vital. I concluded by his double rate he was hitting the ball hard enough to find the gaps, but not the fences-something I also observed watching him play but I guess an educated eye doesn't count anymore. I didn't know his AEV when I came to that conclusion, turns out I was right anyway. AEV validated my conclusion, it didn't lead me to it. Either that is the biggest bit of dumb luck on my part as I'm an old codger who doesn't understand how baseball is played and how to read data, or I have a smidgen of knowledge about the game of baseball, what to watch when you're looking at a hitter, and what data can tell you. |
First off, I was speaking in generalities to prove a point, that while it wasn't the case with Bryant, that it could very well happen with someone else.
Secondly, your entire argument is predicated on the notion that you have the time and ability to
watch and recall every single plate appearance for a hitter (or hitters). Do you understand this?
How about if I, being a Yankee fan who watches maybe 10 regular season NL West games all year, want to see how a player in the NL West is performing power-wise as I would think he'd be a good trade target? What if his HR totals are moderately higher or lower than usual? Or what if there just isn't much data on him at all whether due to little service time/injuries, etc.? Wouldn't you admit Exit Velocity readings would be a pretty useful tool here, moreso than raw home run totals? In this scenario, lets say I'm a casual fan who has little visual or statistical history to work off but am interested in predicting what a player's power output will look like going forward. You think me randomly tuning in to a game to watch him play will be more informative than, say, a half-season's worth of Exit Velocity readings?